Covering period of Monday 26th - Friday 30th August 2024:

As the last week of meteorological winter unfolds, MetService forecasts an unsettled end to the season, with rain and blustery westerlies expected across much of Aotearoa New Zealand from a series of fast-moving weather systems. For the east of the country, those westerlies spell a stretch of unseasonably warm days ahead.

The week began with heavy rain for the lower North Island, causing flooding and slips in parts of Wellington and Kāpiti. A rainy weather system draped across central New Zealand prompting Heavy Rain Watches and Warnings, with some extending into the evening.

MetService meteorologist Mmathapelo Makgabutlane explains, "Within the period of persistent rain, there could be bursts of more intense falls, possibly leading to further impacts.".

Looking ahead, the westerlies will play a part in the weather story in three ways. First, heavy rain is expected, particularly in the western South Island and elevated parts of the North Island.

"The belt from Fiordland to Tasman will see little respite as weather systems cycle through, giving soils minimal time to dry out before the next wave hits," Makgabutlane notes. A Heavy Rain Watch is in place for Buller on Tuesday, with more Watches or Warnings likely for other areas later in the week.

Secondly, as we approach the windiest part of the year, breezy westerlies will be a noticeable feature. "It will likely feel breezy for many of us, especially in the South Island and eastern and lower North Island," says Makgabutlane. "It’s a good time to secure any loose items, so they don’t end up in the neighbour's yard!"

Lastly, those westerlies will bring warmer temperatures to the east, with some areas seeing temperatures in the upper teens, even reaching 20°C or higher. "This could be the longest stretch of August days at or above 20°C for Napier," Makgabutlane points out. The warmer trend looks to extend into the nights as well, with double-digit minimum temperatures expected in the North Island and parts of the South Island, making frosty mornings a distant memory as winter comes to a close.

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