MetService is forecasting a number of lows and associated fronts to stick around today (Monday) and tomorrow, continuing to bring rain for most of Te Ika-a-Māui/North Island, while mostly clear skies dominate southern and western parts of Te Waipounamu/South Island, which sits under a narrow ridge.

MetService meteorologist Dom Barry explains, “Warning amounts of heavy rain are expected for Bay of Plenty, Rotorua and Gisborne/Tairāwhiti north of Gisborne City today. Heavy Rain Watches are also in place for Coromandel Peninsula and Gisborne/Tairāwhiti about and south of Gisborne City and Hawke's Bay north of Napier. This is due to a complex low pressure system slowly moving southeastwards today.”

He continues, “The heavy rain eases in these areas into tomorrow, but showers remain, some of which could be heavy in Hawke’s Bay. Meanwhile, the low moves to the northeast of Te Waipounamu/South Island, bringing periods of rain for the likes of Blenheim, Kaikōura, and eventually north Canterbury by the end of the day.”

“At the same time, Strong Wind Watches for coastal Marlborough north of Clarence, the Marlborough Sounds, and Wellington come into force tonight, with severe southerly gales expected in Cook Strait.”

Heading into Wednesday, MetService is forecasting winds to pick up over the north of the North Island briefly. A classically El Niño, southwesterly flow then forms over the remainder of the country behind this ridge, sending showery weather up the western coasts and onto Northland through to Thursday. It remains mainly dry for the likes of Southland, Otago and Gisborne at this time, as the complex low pressure system finally moves away into the Pacific.

Temperatures, whilst remaining average for this time of year, will feel cooler than what we have experienced in the first week of spring, with single digits expected overnight for most of the country.

A front turns up Friday and moves up the West Coast, creating a wet and gloomy day for them.

A ridge bringing better weather is on the horizon – but we have to wait until the end of the weekend for light at the end of the tunnel – and hopefully some outside days for the second week of the school holidays.

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