MetService is forecasting clear skies and cold nights for a little longer, as a ridge of high pressure lingers over Aotearoa / New Zealand. The situation starts to change over the weekend, however, as the high begins to break down and a low pressure centre approaches the country from the north.

MetService meteorologist Alwyn Bakker states, “There’s a few showers hanging about the north of the North Island, and the east coast. Elsewhere, the ridge over Aotearoa is keeping skies clear.”

Those clear skies make for cold nights, as heat from the ground escapes into space, and frosts are possible in the south and in sheltered places. During the day, clear skies allow the sunlight to raise temperatures quickly, so most places can expect daytime maximums in the high teens to low twenties.

Later on Saturday and into Sunday, a low pressure centre is set to approach Aotearoa from the subtropics, delivering heavy rain and strong northeasterly winds to the upper North Island. Those strong winds will also make for large waves and swell for northern coastal regions. The low then tracks southwards, bringing the rain and winds with it.

“It’s still too early to say which locations will specifically be affected, but we are monitoring the situation and will issue Severe Weather Watches and Warnings as required,” states Bakker.

Since the low originates from the subtropics, it will drag warm, moist subtropical air over New Zealand, raising overnight temperatures into the teens for most of the North Island.

“This flip-flopping in temperatures is pretty normal for autumn,” explains Bakker. “Colder southerly conditions start showing up more frequently, but bouts of warmer air are still occasionally arriving from the tropics.”

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