The Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone season is in full swing and the Tropics are correspondingly active. Tropical Cyclone Judy, a severe category 4 system, passed over much of Vanuatu yesterday (Wednesday) bringing heavy rain, large waves and hurricane force winds to the island chain. The cyclone has now moved away to the southeast of Vanuatu and is expected to move out of the Tropics on Friday and continue tracking eastwards. MetService advises that all of the weather models are forecasting this system to pass well to the northeast of Aotearoa New Zealand and it is not expected to impact our weather.

MetService Meteorologist Jessie Owen said, “Another tropical low to the northwest of Vanuatu has developed into a tropical cyclone today and has just been named Tropical Cyclone Kevin.”

Tropical Cyclone Kevin is forecast to move near to Vanuatu bringing more severe weather to the region. It should then follow a similar path to Tropical Cyclone Judy out of the Tropics and is not forecast to affect New Zealand.

Weather around Aotearoa is much more settled. High pressure over the North Island brings mostly dry conditions for Thursday and Friday and large areas of morning low cloud and fog will clear to sunny skies.

Several fronts over the South Island will bring bursts of rain to top up the comparatively drier island. Jessie says, “The rain will be concentrated mostly in the west and south, eastern areas can expect fine weather and maximum temperatures in the high twenties.”

Later on Friday a southerly change will begin to move up the South Island bringing rain and cooler temperatures to the east. “This drop in temperature will be noticeable - with places like Christchurch, Ashburton, and Timaru expecting maximum temperatures on Saturday to be ten degrees lower than on Thursday,” says Jessie.

The southerly will reach the North Island on Saturday bringing showery conditions for the weekend, particularly in the south and east.

A brief ridge of high pressure is expected to follow the showery southerlies on Monday, settling the weather down again, before another rainmaker from the west is on the cards mid next week.

The MetService monthly outlook for March was released yesterday and can be read here: https://www.metservice.com/rural The bottom line is that westerlies are set to return. The North Island can expect relatively cool temperatures while above average temperatures continue for the South Island. Normal to above normal rainfall is forecast for western areas of both islands, as well as Southland, but a drier than usual March for the north and east North Island, as well as Nelson and Marlborough.

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