Covering period of Monday 23 - Friday 27 January

A large area of high pressure moves onto New Zealand today from the Tasman Sea, bringing fine, settled weather to most places this week, before drifting slowly eastwards. However, MetService is keeping an eye on the sky to the north of the country, where a sub-tropical low is expected to develop. This low is preceded by humid easterly winds, and could bring wet weather to Northland on Friday, and possibly into the weekend.

MetService Meteorologist Peter Little comments, “Computer weather models are all developing a low to the north of New Zealand on Wednesday, then moving it slowly southwards, possibly bringing heavy rain to Northland on Friday. The models currently differ as to how far south they spread the sub-tropical moisture and rain associated with this low, so there will probably be some fine-tuning of forecasts for northern.

With high pressure dominating for most of the week the weather will be mainly fine in many regions, including today in Wellington where locals are celebrating the region’s Anniversary Day. There will be showers in the mix for some though, and daytime cloud buildups might even produce a few heavier showers in some inland places. As the high drifts slowly eastwards, a weak trough is forecast to bring an increase in cloud and showers to the West Coast on Wednesday.

Finally, a front is expected to bring a brief burst of rain to southern New Zealand on Friday, preceded by warm northwesterlies in the east of the South Island.

“The front that is forecast to move over southern New Zealand on Friday is expected to weaken rapidly as it moves northwards, so only a few millimetres of rain are likely in most places. The warm northwest winds ahead of the front are expected to push daytime temperatures in the east of the South Island towards 30°C, which will be around 10°C warmer than the start of the week,” adds Little.

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