A subtropical low pressure system to the northwest of Aotearoa New Zealand is directing a moist northeasterly flow across the country. Parts of the upper North Island have already experienced severe weather over the past couple of days and MetService is forecasting more severe weather to come.

Heavy rain has affected Northland, Auckland, and the Coromandel Peninsula, with 100-140 mm recorded in Northland in the 36 hours up to 8am Thursday morning, 200 mm in the Coromandel Ranges, and 70 mm in northern parts of Auckland. Gale force northeasterly winds have also battered the north with gusts of 110 km/hr recorded in Northland, 100 km/hr in Auckland, and 90 km/hr in the Coromandel.

MetService Meteorologist Jessie Owen says “While in Northland the worst of the rain has now eased, the Coromandel Peninsula and the Bay of Plenty are in line for a lot more wet weather in the coming days. A further 140 to 200 mm of rain is expected in the Coromandel, and 180 to 240 mm for parts of the Bay of Plenty.”

Orange Heavy Rain Warnings are in force for Coromandel, Bay of Plenty, northwest Tasman, the Richmond and Bryant Ranges including the Rai Valley, the Marlborough Sounds, and the ranges of Westland from Thursday through Friday. There is also a Yellow Heavy Rain Watch in force for Auckland. A Yellow Strong Wind Watch for Auckland, Waikato, Coromandel and western Bay of Plenty to Taranaki and Taihape remains in force until Thursday afternoon. Eastern coasts from Northland down through the Bay of Plenty can also expect heavy swells to round out the week.

A large high pressure system parked to the east of the Chatham Islands is blocking the low from making much progress across the country, resulting in a prolonged period of rain for New Zealanders. Owen says “A brief reprieve in the severe weather will come towards the end of the weekend, but for those wondering when summer is returning, you’ll have to wait a little longer.” Another sub-tropical low is expected to head our way mid next week bringing significant weather to the North Island once again. As this system has yet to develop the exact details remain uncertain, however heavy rain and gale force winds are likely for the northeast of the country on Tuesday and Wednesday. As always keep up to date with the latest watches and warnings at metservice.com as this next significant weather system approaches.

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