Covering period of Thursday 19th - Monday 23rd May
Winter is coming. MetService is warning of a cold outbreak spreading across Aotearoa New Zealand in the lead up to this
weekend. Temperatures will fall across the country as strong, cool southwesterly winds race north, spreading showers,
thunderstorms, and snow into many areas. Frosty mornings are likely inland, while dangerous waves lash many coastal
regions.
Numerous Severe Weather Watches and Warnings are already in place as several cold fronts originating from the Southern
Ocean spread heavy rain and gale force winds across southern and central Aotearoa New Zealand.
MetService Meteorologist Ashlee Parkes elaborates, “The heaviest rain is forecast for the western South Island, with an
Orange Heavy Rain Warning in place for Fiordland and Westland, and a Watch in place for Buller and the headwaters of the
Canterbury lakes.”
In addition to the heavy rain in the south, some North Island regions are forecast to see heavy falls, with a Heavy Rain
Watch and Warning in place for Northland and Bay of Plenty today (Thursday), respectively.
Alongside the heavy rain is a risk of thunderstorms for western and southern regions. These thunderstorms also come with
a risk of downpours, hail, and damaging winds. “In the two hours leading up to 9:07am this (Thursday) morning, 1585
lightning strikes were recorded across our lightning network and is taster of what is to come,” says Parkes.
“This cold outbreak is also bringing strong or possibly gale winds to central and southeastern Aotearoa, which will add
to the chill in the air. We have Strong Wind Watches in place for Wellington, Wairarapa, Marlborough, the Canterbury
High Country, as well as Otago and Southland” says Parkes.
Snow is forecast to relatively low levels for some regions of both the North and South Island. “This will be the lowest
snow many have seen so far this year. Snow is currently forecast to about 400 metres in Southland and Otago, but a bit
higher farther north in Canterbury High Country, with a snow level of about 800 metres. Central and southern North
Island regions may see some snow on the mountain tops, with snow forecast to around 1000 metres in those regions,” says
Parkes.
Road Snowfall Warnings are in place for multiple South Island alpine passes for both Thursday and Friday, as well the
Desert Road.
The wild weather is not just forecast over the land. Large swell waves and dangerous coastal conditions are expected
around much of the country. Western coastal regions of both islands, including Auckland and Northland, could see
combined waves of six metres on Friday and Saturday, with large waves spreading up the eastern South Island and into
Wellington during Sunday.
Parkes summarises, “There is lots of stormy weather across Aotearoa over the coming days. We strongly recommend people
keep up to date with the latest forecast on the MetService website.”
While wet, cold and windy weather lashes New Zealand, our friends at the Fiji Meteorological Service have named Tropical
Cyclone Gina this (Thursday) morning. It is currently swirling away to the east of Vanuatu and is expected to travel
southwest over the next couple of days. While we normally think of the South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season as running
from November to April, if the right conditions exist, we can see Tropical Cyclones forming outside of the season.
Current weather models keep Tropical Cyclone Gina to the north of Aotearoa.