MetService meteorologists are keeping a keen eye on Cyclone Cody developments with currently available information supporting a track passing near East Cape on Monday. Hazardous marine conditions are expected for northern and eastern parts of the North Island, while the heaviest rain and strongest winds will be largely determined by the Cyclone’s predicted track over the next few days.

There is high confidence of large easterly swells affecting eastern coastlines of the North Island with the potential for hazardous waves and rip currents from Saturday onwards. Where the heaviest rain and strongest wind eventuates is more dependent on the track. A small shift westwards or eastwards will affect the location and intensity of impacts.

At this stage a Heavy Rain Watch has been issued for Gisborne and the Wairoa District, as well as a Strong Wind Watch for northern Gisborne and eastern Bay of Plenty, both starting at midnight Sunday. Keep up to date over the next few days with the latest severe weather information as more areas may be added or Watches upgraded to Warnings as forecast certainty increases. http://bit.ly/AllWarnings

MetService Meteorologist Lewis Ferris explains: “The latest computer model data supports a possible Cyclone track passing east of East Cape. The cone of uncertainty is still relatively large as to when the system is forecast to come closer to our shores and this represents the current wiggle room in the exact track.”

The coloured cone (in the image above) shows the uncertainty of where the centre of the system will be. Severe weather impacts can stretch beyond the shaded cone.

It is worth noting that people outside of the Severe Weather Watch areas should also be checking in with the latest forecasts as this Cyclone has the potential to bring adverse weather outside the current Watch areas – especially if the track tends westward. This is especially true of coastal conditions around the eastern facing North Island.

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