Issued 03:51pm Monday 13 Dec 2021
Valid from Wednesday 15 Dec 2021 to Saturday 18 Dec 2021

On Wednesday, a low and associated front should move southeastwards across central and northern New Zealand before moving away to the southeast on Thursday. This low and front are expected to bring significant rain and strong winds to many areas.

On Wednesday, there is HIGH confidence of warning amounts of rain for Bay of Plenty and northwest Tasman, then the risk reduces to LOW for these areas on Thursday. Meanwhile, there is LOW confidence of warnable amounts of rain for the remainder of the upper North Island on Wednesday excluding Northland, but MODERATE for Mount Taranaki, also the Marlborough Sounds including the Richmond and Bryant ranges, and the Kaikoura Coast and Ranges as depicted. In addition, on Wednesday and Thursday, there is LOW confidence of significant amounts of rain for Canterbury.

Finally, on Wednesday, there is LOW confidence of severe gale north to northeasterlies in exposed parts of Bay of Plenty and Gisborne.

Heavy Rain Watch for Gisborne

Issued: 4:42pm Monday, 13th December 2021
Area: Gisborne north of Tokomaru Bay
Valid: 11:00pm Tuesday to 2:00pm Wednesday
Periods of heavy rain. Rainfall accumulations may approach warning amounts

Low confidence: a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Moderate confidence: a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
High confidence: a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen

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