TEAM (The Economic Action Marlborough) Group delivered its latest Marlborough Economic Update to individuals, businesses, agencies and sector representatives at the Marlborough Convention Centre this week.

The presentation included a detailed report from economists Infometrics, delivered by Brad Olsen and Alistair Schorn, on revised estimates of the economic impacts of COVID-19 on Marlborough.

Councillor and TEAM Group Chair Mark Peters spoke about the group’s activities so far with a number of Council-funded projects either completed or in progress.

Michelle Martin (Ministry of Social Development Labour Market Manager – Top of the South) also spoke about the range of MSD products and services available, both to employers and those seeking work.

Clr Peters said TEAM acknowledged that Infometrics make their forecasts based on their best available data and professional opinion. “TEAM’s aim with its activities is to lessen the impact on Marlborough‘s economy as much as possible and improve on the Infometrics forecast,” he said.

Key points in Infometrics’ assessment of the current situation for Marlborough were:

· The region has taken a substantial hit, but has rebounded well

· In the June 2020 quarter, GDP declined by 14.4% in Marlborough, compared with 12.4% nationally

· In the September 2020 quarter, consumer spending recovered to be 1.4% up on the same quarter in 2019

· Jobseeker and CIRP (COVID Income Relief Payment) recipients grew by 70%

· Some jobs have been lost, but more have been created

· Young people have been hit the hardest

· The housing market is hot and getting hotter

· Construction activity has been steady

Looking forward, Infometrics has forecast the following:

· Strong demand for primary and manufactured goods should stand the district in good stead

· Marlborough’s economy could contract by 5% over the year to March 2021 and then grow by 1% over the year to March 2022

· Manufacturing and hospitality will likely take the biggest hit

· Lack of international tourism will likely be the most felt in the upcoming two quarters

· Employment could decline into 2022

· Jobs in hospitality, retail and for Māori will potentially be hardest hit

· Unemployment may reach 4.9%

· The region could face lost earnings of close to $73 million due to job losses

· Construction may slow to March 2022 but will likely recover by March 2023

A full copy of the Economic Impacts of COVID-19 on the Marlborough District – Revised Estimates can be found at:

https://www.marlborough.govt.nz/civil-defence-emergency-management/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/the-economic-action-marlborough-team-group/reports

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