Brown down, Goff front runner in Mayoralty poll

1 Apr 15

Former Labour leader and cabinet minister Phil Goff is a clear front runner in results of a poll on who would receive most current and potential support if they were to run for the Auckland Mayoralty in 2016.

A Horizon Research poll of Auckland Council area residents conducted between 19 and 26 March 2015 finds Mr Goff, the MP for Mt Roskill, has 20% support of all respondents if he were to become a Mayoral candidate.

Former Mayor John Banks has 8% support.

Current Mayor Len Brown has 5%.

The Chief Executive of the Auckland Chamber of Commerce, Michael Barnett, has 5% support and former National cabinet minister and current MP for Pakuranga Maurice Williamson has 6% support.

Current councillor Cameron Brewer has 5% support and Deputy Mayor Penny Hulse 4%.

Mr Goff also has least voters saying they would “definitely not” vote for him (24%) while 56% of all respondents say they would definitely not vote for Mr Brown.

SUMMARY REPORT

1. Candidate support

Respondents were told:

“In January 2015, Len Brown, Auckland's current Mayor, was reported as intending to seek another term as Mayor. There has been reported speculation on who else might be thinking of standing for Mayor, and we'd like to see if you have any feelings about who you would like to see as Mayor.

“The following list of people includes those whose names have been reported and includes the top 5 unsuccessful candidates from the 2013 election.”

Respondents were subsequently asked which of these people, if they were candidates, they would consider, which they would NOT consider, and which one they would vote for. Results are reported for those who are currently registered and not registered to vote. All respondents are aged 18+.

1.1 Len Brown:

• Vote for Mr Brown was at 5% for both those currently on the electoral roll and all respondents.

• 61% of respondents on the electoral roll and 56% of all respondents would not consider voting for Mr Brown if he were to be a candidate.

• 20% of respondents on the electoral roll would consider Mr Brown if he were to stand and 18% were unsure.

• 19% of all respondents would consider Mr Brown if he were to stand and 25% were unsure.

• Indications are that 65% of ratepayers would not consider voting for Mr Brown if he were to be a candidate.

1.2 Penny Hulse

• Vote for Ms Hulse was 4% for both those currently on the electoral roll and all respondents.

• Of respondents on the electoral roll 33% would consider voting for Ms Hulse if she were to be a candidate, 29% would not consider voting for her and 38% were unsure.

• For all respondents 31% would consider voting for Ms Hulse if she were to be a candidate, 27% would not consider voting for her and 42% were unsure.

• Indications are that 33% of ratepayers would not consider voting for Ms Hulse if she were to be a candidate.

1.3 John Banks:

• Vote for Mr Banks was 8% for both those currently on the electoral roll and all respondents.

• 54% of respondents on the electoral roll and 49% of all respondents would not consider voting for Mr Banks if he were to be a candidate.

• For respondents on the electoral roll 32% would consider voting for Mr Banks if he were to be a candidate and 14% were unsure.

• For all respondents 31% would consider voting for Mr Banks if he were to be a candidate and 19% were unsure.

• Indications are that 50% of ratepayers would not consider voting for Mr Banks if he were to be a candidate.

1.4 Michael Barnett:

• Vote for Mr Barnett was 6% for those currently on the electoral roll and 5% for all respondents.

• Of respondents on the electoral roll 36% would consider voting for Mr Barnett if he were to be a candidate, 28% would not consider voting for him and 36% were unsure.

• For all respondents 32% would consider voting for Mr Barnett if he were to be a candidate, 27% would not consider voting for him and 41% were unsure.

• Indications are that 28% of ratepayers would not consider voting for Mr Barnett if he were to be a candidate.

1.5 Cameron Brewer:

• Vote for Mr Brewer was 3% for those currently on the electoral roll and 5% for all respondents.

• Of respondents on the electoral roll 25% would consider voting for Mr Brewer if he were to be a candidate, 33% would not consider voting for him and 42% were unsure.

• For all respondents 26% would consider Mr Brewer if he were to be a candidate, 33% would not consider voting for him and 41% were unsure.

• Indications are that 33% of ratepayers would not consider voting for Mr Brewer if he were to be a candidate.

1.6 Maurice Williamson:

• Vote for Mr Williamson was 7% for those currently on the electoral roll and 6% for all respondents.

• Of respondents on the electoral roll 29% would consider voting for Mr Williamson if he were to be a candidate, 36% would not consider voting for him and 35% were unsure.

• For all respondents 27% would consider voting for Mr Williamson if he were to be a candidate, 35% would not consider voting for him and 38% were unsure.

• Indications are that 35% of ratepayers would not consider voting for Mr Williamson if he were to be a candidate.

1.7 Phil Goff:

• Clearly the front-runner; vote for Mr Goff was 23% for those currently on the electoral roll and 20% for all respondents.

• Of respondents on the electoral roll, 53% would consider voting for Mr Goff if he were to be a candidate. 25% would not consider voting for him and 22% were unsure.

• For all respondents 49% would consider voting for Mr Goff if he were to be a candidate, 23% would not consider voting for him and 28% were unsure.

• Indications are that 51% of ratepayers would consider voting for Mr Goff if he were to be a candidate and 29% would not consider him.

Note that:

• In general, candidates from the 2013 election were not strongly considered by respondents.
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• Respondents were generally more certain one way or the other about whether they would vote for Phil Goff, Len Brown and John Banks. With other potential candidates they are more likely to be unsure.

2. Method and sample

591 members of the HorizonPoll national panel, representing the New Zealand population 18+, who live in the Auckland Council area, responded to the survey between 19 and 26 March 2015.

The sample is weighted on age, gender, education, personal income, employment status and party vote in the 2014 general election and has a maximum margin of error at a 95% confidence level of ±4.1% overall.

The survey was independently undertaken as one of Horizon Research’s public interest projects and not commissioned externally.

Further in-depth analysis of this survey using Horizon’s proprietary online reporting system, is available for purchase.

The Summary Report for this survey, including graphs and tables of results filtered by the party respondents voted for at the 2014 Parliamentary general election are here.

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