16 July 2013
Media release
Palino closes on Brown among definite voters in Auckland Mayoralty race
In a mostly two-way race for Auckland’s Mayoralty, there is a 12% gap between the main candidates, incumbent Len Brown
and candidate John Palino.
Mr Brown has a comfortable lead on Mr Palino when Auckland voters are presented with a list of 10 names and the option
to choose someone else or none of them (36.7% Brown, 6.8% Palino).
However, when presented with a contest between Brown, Palino, John Minto and “others”, those who say they are 100%
likely to vote chose Brown 57.4% to Palino 42.6%.
Brown, Palino and Minto have confirmed they will nominate. Mr Brown formally launched his campaign last weekend. Mr
Palino is due to formerly launch his this weekend.
The results from a Horizon Research June 13-21 poll of 1,106 adult Aucklanders indicates a tighter contest if the field
of main centre-left and centre-right contenders narrows when nominations close at noon on August 12. Postal voting runs
from September 20 to noon October 12.
Among people who say the likelihood of them voting is 100%, Palino benefits from significant transfers of support from
those listed if they do not stand including former Commonwealth Bank CEO Sir Ralph Norris (67.4% going to Palino, 32.6%
to Brown) and sitting councillor and former Mayor Christine Fletcher ( 67.3% to Palino, 32.7% Brown). If Minto were not
standing, 75.2% of his support among definite voters would move to Brown, 24.8% to Palino.
The poll was conducted between June 13 and 21. Results are weighed by age, gender, ethnicity, personal income and
educational qualifications to provide a representative sample of the Auckland population aged 18+. At a 95% confidence
level it has a maximum margin of error of +/- 2.9%.
Full results tables, for a list of 10 candidates should they stand and the narrower two main contender race, can be
downloaded here at Horizon Research:
http://www.horizonpoll.co.nz/page/324/palino-closes-on-brown-among-definite-voters-in-auckland-mayoralty-race
Note for Editors:
The poll is part of public-interest research conducted by Horizon. The survey was not conducted for any other
organisation or candidate.