16 September 2011

Will Auckland's Trains Work Tomorrow Night?

New Zealand's online predictions market, iPredict, has today launched a stock asking whether or not Auckland's controversial bus and train system will work adequately for tomorrow night's Australia vs. Ireland Rugby World Cup match at Eden Park.

The contract, which can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=RWC.EDENPK.17SEP, will measure the likelihood that one or more public transport failures will prevent ticket holders to the match from viewing at least half the game at Eden Park.

It will pay $1 if the media reports that one or more public transport interruptions have caused at least 50 public transport passengers to be prevented from seeing the first half of the match. Otherwise the contract will pay $0.

The price of the contract at any given time will indicate the percentage likelihood of a bus or train failure. That is, if the contract is trading at 25c, it means the market believes there is a 25% probability of a bus or train failure.

iPredict's more than 5000 registered traders, plus others who sign up for free at www.ipredict.co.nz, are able to trade the stock.

According to media reports, an estimated 2000 ticket holders missed out on attending some or all of last Friday's Rugby World Cup Opening Ceremony and opening match because of public transport failures. This has led to widespread political debate in the country's Parliament and media.

ENDS

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