Decline in Gun Deaths Doubled Since Australia Destroyed 700,000 Firearms
NZ researcher: Law to reduce gun massacres followed by 10 years without mass shootings
The risk of dying by gunshot in Australia has dropped twice as fast since the 1996 Port Arthur gun buyback, says a new
study published today in the international research journal, Injury Prevention.
“Not only were Australia’s post-Port Arthur gun laws followed by a decade in which the crime they were designed to
reduce hasn’t happened again, but we also saw a life-saving bonus: the decline in overall gun deaths accelerated to
twice the rate seen before the new gun laws,” says study lead author, professor Simon Chapman.
“From 1996 to 2003, the total number of gun deaths each year fell from 521 to 289, suggesting that the removal of more
than 700,000 guns was associated with a faster declining rate of gun suicide and gun homicide,” said adjunct associate
professor Philip Alpers, also from the School of Public Health at the University of Sydney. “This was a milestone public
health and safety issue, driven by an overwhelming swing in public opinion, and promptly delivered by governments.”
After 112 people were shot dead in 11 mass shootings* in a decade, Australia collected and destroyed categories of
firearms designed to kill many people quickly. In his immediate reaction to the Port Arthur massacre, John Howard said
of semi-automatic rifles and shotguns: “There is no legitimate interest served in my view by the free availability in
this country of weapons of this kind… That is why we have proposed a comprehensive package of reforms designed to
implement tougher, more effective and uniform gun laws.” As study co-author Philip Alpers points out: “The new
legislation’s first declared aim was to reduce the risk of similar gun massacres. In the 10½ years since the gun
buy-back announcement, no mass shootings have occurred in Australia.”
“On top of that, and despite the new gun laws not being designed to reduce gun suicide, domestic shootings, and the much
less common ‘stranger danger’ individual gun homicides, firearm fatalities in the three largest categories – total
firearm deaths, firearm homicides and firearm suicides – all at least doubled their previous rates of decline following
the revised firearm legislation.”
While the rates per 100,000 of total firearm deaths, firearm suicides and firearm homicides were already reducing by an
average of 3% each year until 1996, these average rates of decline doubled to 6% each year (total gun death), and more
than doubled to 7.4% (gun suicide) and 7.5% each year (gun homicide) following the introduction of new gun laws.
By 2002/03, Australia’s rate of 0.27 firearm-related homicides per 100,000 population had dropped to one-fifteenth that
of the United States.
The authors conclude that “The Australian example provides evidence that removing large numbers of firearms from a
community can be associated with a sudden and on-going decline in mass shootings, and accelerating declines in total
firearm-related deaths, firearm homicides and firearm suicides.”
ends