Arctic Ocean Could Be Ice-Free During Summer in 100 Years
Reducing carbon dioxide emissions might slow ice melt, scientists say
Current warming trends in the Arctic might push the Arctic system into a seasonally ice-free state not seen for more
than 1 million years, according to a new report announced in an August 23 University of Arizona (UA) press release.
The melting is accelerating, and a team of U.S. and Canadian researchers, during a meeting funded by the U.S. National
Science Foundation (NSF), could not identify natural processes that might slow the Arctic de-icing.
Such melting of Arctic glaciers and ice sheets will raise sea levels worldwide, flooding coastal areas where many of the
world's people live.
"What really makes the Arctic different from the rest of the nonpolar world is the permanent ice in the ground, in the
ocean and on land," said lead author Jonathan Overpeck, a UA geoscientist.
"We see all of that ice melting already,” he added, “and we envision that it will melt back much more dramatically in
the future as we move towards this more permanent ice-free state."
Melting sea ice has already had dramatic effects on indigenous people and animals in the Arctic, which includes parts of
Alaska, Canada, Russia, Siberia, Scandinavia and Greenland.
The report is the result of weeklong meeting of interdisciplinary scientists who examined how the Arctic environment and
climate interact and how the system would respond as global temperatures rise.
Past Arctic climates include glacial periods, where sea-ice coverage expanded and ice sheets extended into northern
America and Europe, and warmer interglacial periods during which the ice retreated, as it has during the past 10,000
years.
By studying natural data sources such as ice cores and marine sediments, scientists have a good idea what the "natural
envelope" for Arctic climate variations has been for the past million years, Overpeck said.
The scientists combined what is known about the Arctic and defined key components that make up the current system. They
identified how the components interact, including feedback loops that involve multiple parts of the system.
Such feedback loops accelerate changes in the system, Overpeck said. For example, the white surface of sea ice reflects
radiation from the sun. But as sea ice melts, more solar radiation is absorbed by the dark ocean, which heats up and
melts even more sea ice.
Overpeck said humans might be able to stop some ice loss by reducing carbon dioxide emissions.
"The trouble is we don't really know where the threshold is beyond which these changes are inevitable and dangerous," he
said. "Therefore it is really important that we try hard, and as soon as we can, to dramatically reduce such emissions."
Additional information is available on the NSF Arctic System Science Program’s Web site. For information on U.S. policy,
see Climate Change.
Text of the UA press release follows:
(begin text)
University of Arizona
[Tucson, Arizona]
Press release, August 23, 2005
Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer within 100 years, scientists say
The current warming trends in the Arctic may shove the Arctic system into a seasonally ice-free state not seen for more
than one million years, according to a new report. The melting is accelerating, and a team of researchers were unable to
identify any natural processes that might slow the de-icing of the Arctic.
Such substantial additional melting of Arctic glaciers and ice sheets will raise sea level worldwide, flooding the
coastal areas where many of the world's people live.
Melting sea ice has already resulted in dramatic impacts for the indigenous people and animals in the Arctic, which
includes parts of Alaska, Canada, Russia, Siberia, Scandinavia and Greenland.
"What really makes the Arctic different from the rest of the non-polar world is the permanent ice in the ground, in the
ocean and on land," said lead author University of Arizona geoscientist Jonathan T. Overpeck. "We see all of that ice
melting already, and we envision that it will melt back much more dramatically in the future as we move towards this
more permanent ice-free state."
The report by Overpeck and his colleagues is published in the Aug. 23 Eos, the weekly newspaper of the American
Geophysical Union. A complete list of authors and their affiliations is at the end of this release.
The report is the result of weeklong meeting of a team of interdisciplinary scientists who examined how the Arctic
environment and climate interact and how that system would respond as global temperatures rise. The workshop was
organized by the NSF Arctic System Science Committee, which is chaired by Overpeck, director of the Institute for the
Study of Planet Earth at The University of Arizona in Tucson. The National Science Foundation funded the meeting.
The past climates in the Arctic include glacial periods, where sea ice coverage expanded and ice sheets extended into
Northern America and Europe, and warmer interglacial periods during which the ice retreats, as it has during the past
10,000 years.
By studying natural data loggers such as ice cores and marine sediments, scientists have a good idea what the "natural
envelope" for Arctic climate variations has been for the past million years, Overpeck said.
The team of scientists synthesized what is currently known about the Arctic and defined key components that make up the
current system. The scientists identified how the components interact, including feedback loops that involve multiple
parts of the system.
"In the past, researchers have tended to look at individual components of the Arctic," said Overpeck. "What we did for
the first time is really look at how all of those components work together."
The team concluded that there were two major amplifying feedbacks in the Arctic system involving the interplay between
sea and land ice, ocean circulation in the North Atlantic, and the amounts of precipitation and evaporation in the
system.
Such feedback loops accelerate changes in the system, Overpeck said. For example, the white surface of sea ice reflects
radiation from the sun. However, as sea ice melts, more solar radiation is absorbed by the dark ocean, which heats up
and results in yet more sea ice melting.
While the scientists identified one feedback loop that could slow the changes, they did not see any natural mechanism
that could stop the dramatic loss of ice.
"I think probably the biggest surprise of the meeting was that no one could envision any interaction between the
components that would act naturally to stop the trajectory to the new system," Overpeck said. He added that the group
investigated several possible braking mechanisms that had been previously suggested.
In addition to sea and land ice melting, Overpeck warned that permafrost--the permanently frozen layer of soil that
underlies much of the Arctic--will melt and eventually disappear in some areas. Such thawing could release additional
greenhouse gases stored in the permafrost for thousands of years, which would amplify human-induced climate change.
Overpeck said humans could step on the brakes by reducing carbon dioxide emissions. "The trouble is we don't really know
where the threshold is beyond which these changes are inevitable and dangerous," Overpeck said. "Therefore it is really
important that we try hard, and as soon as we can, to dramatically reduce such emissions."
Overpeck's coauthors on the Aug. 23 Eos paper are Matthew Sturm of the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory
in Fort Wainwright, Alaska; Jennifer A. Francis of Rutgers University in New Brunswick, N.J.; Donald K. Perovich of the
Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory in Hanover, N.H.; Mark C. Serreze of the University of Colorado,
Boulder; Ronald Benner of the University of South Carolina in Columbia; Eddy C. Carmack of the Institute of Ocean
Sciences in Sidney, BC, Canada; F. Stuart Chapin III of the University of Alaska, Fairbanks; S. Craig Gerlach of the
University of Alaska, Fairbanks; Lawrence C. Hamilton of the University of New Hampshire in Durham; Larry D. Hinzman of
the University of Alaska, Fairbanks; Marika Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.;
Henry P. Huntington of Huntington Consulting in Eagle River, Alaska; Jeffrey R. Key of the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration's National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service in Madison, Wis.; Andrea H.
Lloyd of Middlebury College in Middlebury, Va.; Glen M. MacDonald of the University of California, Los Angeles; Joe
McFadden of the University of Minnesota in St. Paul; David Noone of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena,
Calif.; Terry D. Prowse of the University of Victoria, in BC, Canada; Peter Schlosser of Columbia University in
Palisades, N.Y.; and Charles Vörösmarty of the University of New Hampshire in Durham.
Related Websites:
Jonathan T. Overpeck: http://www.geo.arizona.edu/dgesl/
The University of Arizona's Institute for the Study of Planet Earth: http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/
The NSF Arctic System Science (ARCSS) Program: http://www.arcus.org/ARCSS/