COHA Speaks:
1. Luis Posada Carriles
2. Deteriorating U.S.-Mexico Relations
3. The Brazil-Argentina Rivalry
Treatment of Posada Will Test Integrity of Washington's Anti-Terrorism Crusade
The Bush administration's response to the Luis Posada Carriles case brings to mind its similar mishandling of the 2002
attempted coup against Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. The White House cheered the temporary downfall of the
democratically-elected Chávez, despite its commitment to the "spread of democracy." Similarly, Washington appeared to
hesitate over its pledge to fight terrorism at home and abroad by not acknowledging for weeks that it knew Posada was in
the country, proof that the $3.8 billion spent on border security each year is completely ineffective in deterring
terrorists from entering the U.S. The administration's policy shift in both cases came only under intense international
pressure to abide by the White House’s own standards. Once again, the Bush administration has revealed an enormous
capacity for selective indignation depending on whether the villainous act was committed against a country with a
political ideology acceptable to Washington.
This analysis was prepared by COHA Research Associate, Joseph Taves.
The Breakdown on Immigration Issues
President Bush’s May 11 decision to sign into law the “Real ID” bill stung millions of Mexicans as it represented the
last likely opportunity that the Bush administration will have during the Fox presidency to come forth with a dramatic
move opening up the U.S to a more hospitable treatment of would-be Mexican immigrants. It also makes it a certainty that
future immigration issues would be treated in a criminal justice context rather than as an aspect of trade or
employment. The new legislation will prohibit thousands of illegal immigrants from obtaining drivers licenses, which are
critical to their economic livelihood, and authorizes the financing of a fence along part of the U.S.-Mexico border. On
May 13, a frustrated President Vicente Fox expressed the anger and outrage felt by many Mexicans when he hastily said:
“There is no doubt that Mexican men and women […] are doing the jobs in the United States that not even black people
want to do there.” While Fox managed to shoot himself in the foot with patronizing remarks (despite his subsequent
apology), the distraction caused by Fox’s undiplomatic performance could thwart Mexico’s hopes for a favorable
immigration compromise with Washington before Fox leaves office.
This analysis was prepared by COHA Research Associate, Hampden Macbeth.
Brazil-Argentina Ties Worsen
Brazilian President Luis Inácio “Lula” da Silva’s leadership initiatives have included orthodox domestic economic
policies and taking issue with the U.S. on trade and foreign policy initiatives, while managing to maintain good
relations with Washington as well as doing no small service to the Bush administration by having the Brazilian military
head the U.N. peacekeeping mission to Haiti (MINUSTAH). Meanwhile, Lula has Brazil well on its way to becoming, or at
least acting as, South America’s lone super power – much to the ire of Argentine President Néstor Kirchner. While Buenos
Aires, which was a very large regional trading power until the financial crisis of 2001, should feel miffed if Brasilia
insists on exerting disproportionate influence on cooperative ventures such as the proposed South American Community of
Nations and the Southern Cone trade bloc MERCOSUR, any opposition from Argentina to Brazil’s efforts to seek permanent
membership of the U.N. Security Council almost certainly will be counterproductive. Brazil, whose population is more
than five times that of Argentina and whose GDP is greater than that of Russia, possesses the numbers to be South
America’s definitive “big guy.” Without dispute, it could serve the area as an effective advocate for South America’s
interests, much more than any of the council’s current permanent members. A permanent seat on the Security Council would
provide Brazil with increased leverage in its dealings with dominant states around the world, allowing it to more
effectively lobby for favorable trade terms and debt repayment conditions from a position of strength, thus benefiting
the continent as a whole, including Argentina.
This analysis was prepared by COHA Research Associate, Philip Morrow.