Council On Hemispheric Affairs
Monitoring Political, Economic and Diplomatic Issues Affecting the Western Hemisphere
Memorandum to the Press 04.48
Tuesday, August 10, 2004
Venezuela Recall on August 15 Could Usher in Better Times
As the days count down to this Sunday’s recall referendum in Venezuela, the opposition’s once adamantly anti-Chávez
rhetoric has now been softened to include conciliatory messages. Moving from their once unabashedly dogmatic belief in
anti-welfare, pro-business policies and an unremitting disdain for Chávez, to a message of understanding, unity and
inclusion, could be considered uncharacteristic of the opposition. Based upon recent domestic opinion polls, Chávez’
critics now seem to realize that they will be unable to generate the necessary breadth of support to recall the
president through slanderous and violent tactics. The president’s position has been strengthened by the oil dividend
that has resulted from the per barrel price of oil hitting $44. This economic bonanza has enabled Chávez to allocate
almost $2 billion in previously unaffordable social programs advancing health, education and subsidized food initiatives
targeted towards his principal constituency, the poor.
By implementing such policies, Chávez has been able to win back much of the support from the country’s impoverished
sector that had defected from him due to past failures to fulfill his campaign pledges. Luis Vicente Leon, an opposition
pollster, believes that “once the opposition saw Chávez’ popularity grow, they decided the strategy could not be to
attack Chávez.” As a result, “they talk about peace, unity, [and] a better future. That’s what the opposition adopts as
its central strategy.” This conciliatory campaign format is a last ditch effort to gain electoral credibility and to
somehow win the hearts of “Chavistas,” who have not forgotten the decades of opposition rule marked by economic
mismanagement and skewed government policies.
Moreover, the opposition’s increasingly softened tone has all but conceded victory to Chavez on August 15. By rapidly
revising its historic indifference to welfare policies, the opposition’s new platform is a clear attempt to regroup in
the face of its likely defeat in the referendum. As the current government gains popularity, the opposition finds itself
weaker, less unified and largely devoid of a clear electoral message. Chavez’ critics’ attempt to popularize their
position now appears to be too little, too late as most Venezuelans have already decided how they will vote on August
15. According to Government Minister Aristobulo Isturiz, “For the opposition, things are harder… As we advance, they are
in worse shape.” While Chavez’ popularity gains new strength, the opposition’s hope to oust the populist leader seems to
be diminishing.
Yet, now is the opportune time for Chávez himself to extend an olive branch to his critics. After the failed April 2002
coup, Chávez told the entire nation that he would seek reconciliation with his political opponents and try to embrace
the expectations of all Venezuelans. Unfortunately, relations between the two political factions quickly deteriorated to
the tumultuous atmosphere that exists today. What is now needed is a comprehensive détente to consolidate democracy and
raise living standards for all, rather than a flirtation with confrontation and strife.
This analysis was prepared by Mark Scott and Anthony Kolenic, COHA Research Associates
August 10, 2004
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