Memorandum to the Press
02.48 For Immediate Release December 6, 2002
Venezuela - News Analysis From the Council on Hemispheric Affairs
* Playing a dangerous game of chicken
* By winning, the opposition could lose
* By playing by the rules, Chávez is almost on the ropes
* Does the opposition wish to negotiate or merely forcibly oust a constitutional president - dialogue or
diktat?
Hugo Chávez is president of Venezuela today because the population became disaffected with the corruption, venality and
selfishness of the country's traditional upper and middle-class leadership, which led to an institutional breakdown of
government, with the help of a pandering and officious press and a bureaucracy that systematically stole from the
populace. This leadership was aided by the country's major business group, Fedecámaras, including a corrupt and heavily
manipulated labor confederation (CVT), partially funded from Washington, which was integrated into its ranks.
Eventually, a vast majority of the population voted against the traditional rulers, but some did not. It is that latter
20 percent of the population, plus some new recruits coming from disaffected Chavistas, who are staging the present
strike, which is now threatening the country's vitals. It is in their neighborhoods where the stoppage has been most
successful.
Luring the military with forbidden fruit
The protracted general strike, now going into its fifth day, seems to be achieving a critical mass of the political
propulsion needed to pressure the Venezuelan armed forces to seize power after ousting Chávez, if only briefly, to spare
the country a social, political and economic breakdown. At the same time, Chávez seems to be making important political
concessions to stave off a constitutional crisis. Such varying scenarios beg the question whether they pose significant
short and long-term dangers to the country's organic institutions. To begin, intervention by the military would be an
arrant violation of the Declaration of Santiago and the Inter-American Democratic Charter's strictures against any
extra-constitutional change of power. Any accommodation by the membership of the Inter-American system with a de facto
coup would invalidate recent OAS actions on the inviolability of democratic order, as well as seriously weaken the
regional organization's relevance and reputation.
At the same time, a military takeover might embolden anti-democratic elements of the Venezuelan armed forces, which in
recent years have followed a laudable institutional path of respecting the constitutional chain of command. But, this
hasn't always been the case, as indicated by General Perez Jimenez's military dictatorship during the 1950s. By breaking
with this modern tradition, the armed forces could ultimately follow the course taken by the Chilean and Argentine armed
forces in the 1970s and 80s, in which those countries' civilian democratic oppositions, to their later intense regret,
initially had solicited action by their armed forces to rid their societies of constitutional governments that they had
come to despise. But, rather than simply recycling the political system in a process where frustrated political parties
would be the main beneficiaries, the opposition's political leaders unintentionally created a Frankenstein by fashioning
a force that came to despise civilian values, its importunings and shortcomings. The armed forces then, in turn,
substituted their own proto-authoritarian values and became the new government, after expressing their contempt for
bickering politicians.
Refusing to negotiate
Sensing the whiff of success after flexing their muscles and eager to fish in dangerous waters, the Venezuelan civilian
opposition, if it chooses to continue to spurn Chávez's new signs of flexibility on major issues of concern to the
protesters, could bring on a civic explosion, in which the poor and the rich would be at each other's throats. The
result could be the creation of a sullen society in which the losers would not easily forgive or forget what had
happened. This could ignite class warfare, which could end up triggering a massive and bloody confrontation between
those who benefited and those who would have much to lose upon Chávez's exit. In this process, Venezuela would most
likely begin to resemble war-torn Colombia.
After a recent history of relatively peaceful demonstrations in Venezuela, the latest chapter in the country's turbulent
history would see that saga replaced with a wave of guerrilla attacks (remember that Venezuela had a guerrilla presence
during the 1970s), right-wing vigilantism, massive human rights violations on all sides, a spate of abductions and a
huge rise of common street crime, as well as an onset of political warfare over whom among the opposition will
ultimately share the spoils. Such a doomsday script could even reinvigorate support for Chávez (if he survives his
present trials) among the poor in the country, who represent an incontestable majority of the population. Even if a
democratic election was staged later, who could guarantee that Chávez would not emerge as the ultimate victor? Would the
opposition really allow this? Remember, in spite of the snarling placards, Chávez was no dictator - ever. Democratic
rights have been respected and human rights violations have been minimal. It could even be argued that Chávez's current
plight might have been different if he was less the democrat and invoked martial law and ruled by decree.
At this point, the best prospect for a solution to the dangerous game now being played out in Venezuela is for an
OAS-brokered negotiation and a display - prompted by genuine patriotism, and not craven opportunism - of readiness on
both sides to compromise in order to spare the country the very strong possibility that conditions could quickly
deteriorate to the point that the dogs of violence will be unleashed, with all sides being the loser.
This analysis has been prepared by COHA director Larry Birns, with the assistance of COHA Research Associate, Kerry
Ezard.
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