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S E C R E T STATE 002126
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NOFORN
GENEVA: FOR CD DEL
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/2035
TAGS: AS CA CH MCAP NZ PARM PREL TSPA UK
SUBJECT: ADVISORY TO COMMONWEALTH ALLIES REGARDING CHINA,S
IMPENDING INTERCEPT FLIGHT-TEST
REF: (A) 07 LONDON 155
Classified By: David E. Hoppler Reasons 1.4 (a),(d),(e),and(g)
1. (S//NF) THIS IS AN ACTION REQUEST. Embassies Canberra,
London, Ottawa, and Wellington are instructed to deliver the
talking points (and hand over as a U.S. Non-Paper) in
paragraph 3 to appropriate Host Nation foreign and defense
policy officials as soon as possible on Monday, January 11,
2010, given that the intercept flight-test is expected
imminently. Embassies are requested to provide confirmation
of delivery and any immediate responses.
2. (S) BACKGROUND: The U.S. Intelligence Community assesses
that China may conduct an intercept flight-test using an
SC-19 missile from the Korla Missile Test Complex against a
CSS-X-11 medium-range ballistic missile launched from the
Shuangchengzi Space and Missile Center in the next several
days. An SC-19 was used previously as the payload booster
for the January 11, 2007 direct-ascent anti-satellite
(DA-ASAT) intercept of the Chinese FY-1C weather satellite.
Previous SC-19 DA-ASAT flight-tests were conducted in 2005
and 2006. The United States does not expect China to provide
any prior notification of its imminent intercept flight-test,
post-test announcement, nor do we expect any post-event
explanation without China being asked or questioned in a
demarche.
(S//NF) Action addressee posts should coordinate closely with
host governments prior to, during, and after China conducts
the next SC-19 flight-test to ensure that all necessary
officials in Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and New
Zealand have timely and complete information regarding
China's activities. The need for such close coordination was
underscored in the aftermath of China's first successful
SC-19 DA-ASAT flight-test on January 11, 2007 (UTC).
Although UK analysts had provided key contributions to
monitoring this program, UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office
and Cabinet Office officials said they had been "personally
unaware" that China had been developing a DA-ASAT system
until they were informed by Embassy London on January 14,
2007, three days after China's flight-test. (REF A)
3. (S//REL TO USA, CAN, AUS, GBR, NZL) BEGIN TALKING
POINTS/U.S. NON-PAPER:
-- Washington estimates that China may be planning to use its
SC-19 missile to conduct an intercept flight-test against a
CSS-X-11 medium-range ballistic missile that could happen
within the next several days. We anticipate that the SC-19
will launch from the Korla Missile Test Complex (a new
location for SC-19 activity) in western China. The CSS-X-11
will launch from Shuangchengzi Space and Missile Center,
approximately 1,100 kilometers east of Korla.
-- The SC-19 was used previously as the payload booster for
the January 11, 2007, direct-ascent anti-satellite (DA-ASAT)
intercept of the Chinese FY-1C weather satellite, as well as
in DA-ASAT flight-tests conducted in 2005-06.
-- The United States is currently examining the range of our
diplomatic options and will closely consult with (Host
Nation) regarding possible joint diplomatic responses after
the flight-test. The United States will also seek your ideas
in how to respond over the longer-term.
-- Since the national security imperative is not to
jeopardize sensitive intelligence "sources and methods," as
well as enable collection on this event, Washington has
decided not to demarche Beijing prior to this expected
flight-test. Furthermore, it is our assessment that any
demarche transmitted prior to the launch event will not
dissuade China from conducting the SC-19 flight-test.
-- U.S. diplomatic and public diplomacy strategies will be
shaped by the observables of the event, China's
diplomatic/public explanations (if any), and upon our
post-test analysis of risks to "sources and methods."
-- Should China's flight-test preparations progress, the
United States is willing, to the greatest extent possible, to
provide updates on significant milestones via diplomatic
channels. However, we also suggest communicating via
established military-to-military and intelligence liaison
channels as appropriate.
END TALKING POINTS/NON-PAPER.
END CABLE TEXT.
CLINTON