INDEPENDENT NEWS

Cablegate: Seoul - Press Bulletin; September 21, 2009

Published: Mon 21 Sep 2009 08:26 AM
VZCZCXRO0241
OO RUEHGH
DE RUEHUL #1501/01 2640826
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 210826Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY SEOUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5697
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 9176
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC//DDI/OEA//
RHHMUNA/USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI//FPA//
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC//DB-Z//
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 0306
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 6662
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 6733
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 1284
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 5056
RUEHIN/AIT TAIPEI 4016
RUEHGP/AMEMBASSY SINGAPORE 7230
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1532
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 2845
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1923
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 2531
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 08 SEOUL 001501
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US
SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; September 21, 2009
TOP HEADLINES
-------------
Chosun Ilbo, Segye Ilbo, Seoul Shinmun
University Graduates Failing to Land Regular Jobs
JoongAng Ilbo
First Disclosure of College Scholastic Ability Test Scores
from 2005 to 2009 by City and District
Dong-a Ilbo
Prime Minister Nominee Faces Tough Hearing;
Nominee in Hot Seat over Relocation of Government Agencies to
Central Region as Part of the Sejong City Project
Hankook Ilbo
Survey Shows People Almost Evenly Divided
over Sejong City Project
Hankyoreh Shinmun
President Lee under Criticism for Ignoring Illegal Acts Committed by
Nominees Named to High-ranking Positions and Trying to Go Ahead with
Nominations
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
------------------
President Barack Obama told CNN on Sept. 20 that North Korean leader
Kim Jong-il is "pretty healthy and in control." Obama's remarks come
at a time when the U.S. is considering resuming bilateral talks with
North Korea. (JoongAng, Hankyoreh, Hankook, Segye, Seoul, KBS, MBC)
Kurt Campbell, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and
Pacific Affairs, told reporters on Sept. 19 upon his return from
Japan: "The U.S. is prepared to see whether indeed North Korea is
prepared to come back responsibly to sit down in the Six-Party
framework and again work toward what we are all seeking to achieve -
a verifiable non-nuclear Korean Peninsula." This remark is in
response to North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's recent statement that
the North is willing to resolve its nuclear issue through both
bilateral and multilateral talks. (Chosun)
MEDIA ANALYSIS
--------------
-N. Korea
----------
On Saturday (Sept. 19), all media front-paged a report by China's
Xinhua New Agency quoting North Korean leader Kim Jong-il as telling
visiting Chinese Presidential Envoy Dai Bingguo that his country is
willing to participate in bilateral and multilateral talks.
Most media noted Seoul's cautious response to the report, quoting a
key Blue House official as saying: "The North did not say
specifically that it will return to the Six-Party Talks. We will
check on what the North really means after the Chinese delegation
returns home."
Conservative Chosun Ilbo described this development as proof that
the current, unprecedented cooperation between the ROK, the U.S. and
China to pressure North Korea is working. Right-of-center JoongAng
Ilbo wrote the headline: "U.S Calls for N. Korea to Return to
Six-Party Talks Have Worked... Once This 'Big Obstacle' is Removed,
Bosworth's Visit to N. Korea Likely to Happen Sooner." Conservative
Dong-a Ilbo's headline read: "North Korea's Cycle of Provocations,
Sanctions, Mediations and Dialogue in Place Again?"
Today, Chosun Ilbo carried an inside-page article entitled "U.S.
Reacts with Caution to N. Korean Overtures." It quoted Kurt
Campbell, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific
SEOUL 00001501 002 OF 008
Affairs, as saying on Saturday that the U.S. would wait to see if
North Korea is indeed prepared to return to the Six-Party Talks.
The article also quoted a diplomatic source in Washington as saying:
"One important reason why the North is trying to scrap the Six-Party
Talks is to nullify the Sept. 19, 2005 statement of principles. The
U.S. Administration is aware of this, so it's being very cautious
about changing the framework of talks."
Conservative Dong-a Ilbo editorialized on Saturday: "North Korea
declared in April that it will never rejoin the Six-Party Talks.
While publicly proposing multilateral dialogue, the North may demand
trilateral or four-party talks in order to drive a wedge between the
Six-Party countries. Judging from its past behavior, North Korea
may also ask for a quid pro quo for resuming dialogue."
Moderate Hankook Ilbo editorialized today: "There is nothing wrong
with the ROKG's position that it will make a judgment after
confirming what intentions and conditions the North has behind such
overtures. However, we cannot shake off the feeling that Seoul is
too inactive or passive toward the possibility of a big change in
addressing North Korea's nuclear issue. ... President Lee
Myung-bak left for the U.S. yesterday to attend a meeting of the UN
General Assembly and the G20 Financial Summit in Pittsburgh.
President Lee should use this visit as an opportunity to take a
leadership role at the same time as adopting a more active attitude
toward this new development in the North Korean nuclear issue."
-G 20 Summit in Pittsburgh
--------------------------
Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo editorialized today: "The ROK is
already a member of the meeting of the Group of 20 Finance Ministers
and Central Bank Governors, and will hold the presidency of the
meeting next year. The ROK, which is being touted as the first
country to recover from the global financial crisis, is well
positioned to play a constructive role as an 'honest broker' between
the developed and developing countries. In every respect, it is
natural and reasonable for the ROK to host next year's G20 summit."
-President Obama's Decision to Scrap Missile Defense Plans in
Eastern Europe
------------------------
Left-leaning Hankyoreh Shinmun editorialized on Sept. 19: "This U.S.
policy change, despite its denial, is aimed at improving ties with
Russia. Currently, the U.S. is in urgent need of Russia's help to
resolve the issues of Iran and Afghanistan, the U.S.'s most
important foreign policy goals at the moment. Discussions also need
to begin on a new agreement to take the place of the Strategic Arms
Reduction Treaty with Russia, which is set to expire. Russian
President Dmitry Medvedev has indicated that he views Obama's
decision as a responsible move and intends to respond in a
forward-thinking way. Obama's policy shift has shown the potential
to bring the international order into an age of cooperation rather
than conflict."
Opinions/Editorials
-------------------
WILL OBAMA BE FOOLED?
(Dong-a Ilbo, September 19, 2009, page 30: Excerpts)
By Editorial writer Bang Hyung-nam
The Obama Administration should have learned from the past the
lessons of failed U.S. diplomacy in regard to the North Korean
nuclear issue. Instead, in a shift from a hard-line position, the
Obama Administration accepted North Korea's overtures for bilateral
talks. Even a list of incentives the U.S. could provide to the
North is being floated. China tried to persuade Pyongyang to return
to the Six-Party Talks through its chief envoy to the Six-Party
Talks Wu Dawei. But after its failed attempt, China sent Chinese
State Councilor Dai Bingguo to Pyongyang to meet with North Korean
leader Kim Jong-il. It is odd that the U.S. and China are being
swayed by North Korea as if they themselves had done something
SEOUL 00001501 003 OF 008
wrong.
The U.S. has already been deceived twice by North Korea over the
nuclear issue. Former President Bill Clinton signed the 1994 Geneva
Agreed Framework through the U.S.-North Korea bilateral talks but
couldn't block the North from its nuclear development. Former
President George W. Bush was fooled by the September 19 Joint
Statement. If President Obama enters into negotiations with North
Korea, he will face North Korea's third nuclear scheme. Will he be
able to outmaneuver North Korea, unlike his predecessors?
Recent moves by the U.S. government are stirring concerns. The
Obama Administration's initial position was that there is no
alternative except the North's return to the Six-Party Talks. Then,
the U.S. Administration said that U.S.-North Korea talks will take
place within the framework of the Six-Party Talks. Now it has
changed its position, saying that the U.S. can have bilateral
negotiations with the North to facilitate the Six-Party Talks.
Criticism is rife (over changes in USG positions) even in the U.S.
President Obama chairs a nuclear summit at the UN Security Council
on September 24. He will also preside over the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference next May. These
are the steps toward realizing a nuclear-free world he espoused this
April. However, Obama's diplomacy will become futile if he does not
resolve the North Korean nuclear issue, which is the most pressing
issue. Even if U.S.-North Korea bilateral talks take place, Obama
should uphold the principle that the U.S. will not reward North
Korea for its erroneous behavior. We hope that the U.S. will not be
deceived by North Korea's third nuclear scheme.
KIM JONG-IL'S TRUE INTENTIONS BEHIND PROPOSAL FOR MULTILATERAL
DIALOGUE
(JoongAng Ilbo, September 21, 2009, Page 45)
By Yoon Duk-min, Professor at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and
National Security
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il recently told Chinese State
Councilor Dai Bingguo that he "would like to resolve the
denuclearization issue through bilateral and multilateral dialogue."
Some observers point out that (this means that) Pyongyang has
finally yielded to international pressure, especially the trade
embargo imposed by China. Unsurprisingly, (Kim Jong-il's statement)
fits with the tactical pattern of North Korean (foreign policy) that
we've seen at least three times over the past two decades in which
Pyongyang creates an external crisis in order to consolidate
domestic control and, then, moves to address the outside situation.
North Korea's behavior this year is almost similar to that during
the first nuclear crisis in the early 1990s. The only difference is
the involvement of China. During a meeting with former U.S.
President Clinton, Kim Jong-il mentioned bilateral talks but did
talk about a return to the Six-Party Talks, an issue which the North
left for China, the host of the Six-Party Talks, to take up. Since
its nuclear and missile tests, the North has completely sidelined
China. While Kim Jong-il met with Clinton and Hyundai Group
Chairwoman Hyun Jeong-eun and even sent a special delegation to
President Lee Myung-bak, he did not allow Chinese Six-Party Talks
chief Wu Dawei to meet with North Korean key officials during his
recent visit to Pyongyang. Concerned that Beijing might lose its
leadership over Korean Peninsula issues, President Hu Jintao sent
Dai Bingguo as his special envoy. Although it looks as if Kim
Jong-il, a master of brinkmanship diplomacy, "saved the face" of
Beijing by referring to multilateral dialogue, Kim did not
specifically mention the Six-Party Talks. This tactic is the same
as the one that the North employed in 2007. At that time, the North
made China anxious when it said in the October 4 Joint Declaration
that peace on the Korean Peninsula can be addressed through "three
or four-party dialogue" but did not specify whether China would be
included in three-party talks.
SEOUL 00001501 004 OF 008
Through bilateral talks with the U.S., North Korea intends to
establish diplomatic ties with the U.S. and, at the same time, gain
recognition as a nuclear state, as India and Pakistan did. To this
end, Pyongyang is trying to break up international cooperation aimed
at preventing the North from joining the nuclear club. North Korea
is hinting at denuclearization to the U.S., inter-Korean summit to
the ROK, and the Six-Party Talks to China, respectively. Toward the
new Japanese government, the North is probably taking a conciliatory
approach regarding the issue of abducted Japanese (citizens).
Just because the Six-Party Talks resume does not mean that the
nuclear issue will be resolved. While the Six-Party Talks were
under way, the North staged two nuclear tests. What is most
important in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue is for the
ROK, the U.S., China, Japan, and Russia to show the North through
action that, "unless it gives up its nuclear ambitions, it will
suffer damage." If even a single nation is deceived by the North
into withdrawing from international cooperation, we will see North
Korea conduct a third nuclear test and its nuclear possession
accepted as a fait accompli.
U.S. POLICY SWITCH IS A VICTORY IN RATIONALISM
(Hankyoreh Shinmun, September 19, 2009, Page 23)
U.S. President Barack Obama announced plans yesterday to scrap the
George W. Bush Administration's installation of a missile defense
(MD) system in Poland and the Czech Republic, and to build a new,
more flexible MD system instead. This is a welcome sign that U.S.
foreign policy has begun to assume a basis in rational
determinations.
Despite its huge price tag, the Bush administration's MD policy has
been criticized for having limited effectiveness and for needlessly
generating international conflicts. More than 90 billion dollars
have been poured into the plan since its start in 2002, yet (the
program's missile) interception rate has lingered below 50 percent
in its more than ten-odd trials. Some analysts have even suggested
that the reason the Bush Administration persisted with the program
despite these lackluster results was because core policy makers like
former Vice President Dick Cheney and former Secretary of Defense
Donald Rumsfeld were in league with the military-industrial
complex.
The Bush Administration did not stop at building an MD base in
Alaska, but also urged allies like South Korea and Japan to
participate as well. This is why the (U.S.'s) MD policy has irked
China and Russia. In particular, the decision that is at issue now,
a December 2006 decision to introduce the MD system in Poland and
the Czech Republic, has been a decisive factor in the worsening of
U.S.-Russia relations. The pretext was that (setting up an MD
system within these countries) would protect Europe from long-range
missile attacks from Iran and North Korea, however,(Moscow) viewed
the move as a (threat to Russia).
As a result, the Obama Administration's change in policy is, despite
the Administration's denial, aimed at improving relations with
Russia. Currently, Russia's help is urgently needed for a solution
to the issues of Iran and Afghanistan, the U.S.'s most important
foreign policy goals at the moment. (The U.S. also needs to begin
discussion on a new agreement to take the place of the Strategic
Arms Reduction Treaty with Russia, which is set to expire. Russian
President Dmitry Medvedev has indicated that he views Obama's
decision as a responsible move and intends to respond in a
forward-thinking way. Obama's policy shift has shown the potential
to bring the international order into an age of cooperation rather
than conflict.
South Korea in turn needs to mull over the meaning of the shift by
the U.S. in MD policy. Even within the ruling Democratic Party of
Japan, there are growing calls to cut the MD budget. Their
determination is that, rather than sinking astronomical sums of
money into building an ineffective defense network, it is more
pragmatic to create the kind of international environment where
SEOUL 00001501 005 OF 008
missile launches can be avoided in the first place. South Korea
should make formulating a plan that can alleviate tensions a policy
priority.
(This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is
identical to the Korean version.)
WE SHOULD NOT BE OVERLY REACTIVE TO PYONGYANG'S HINT OF RETURNING TO
MULTILATERAL TALKS
(Dong-a Ilbo, September 19, 2009, Page 31, Excerpts)
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il expressed his intent yesterday (for
North Korea) to return to dialogue aimed at resolving the North
Korean nuclear issue. Kim told visiting Chinese State Councilor Dai
Bingguo that he "hopes to resolve the denuclearization issue through
bilateral and multilateral dialogue." This has now opened the
possibility that dialogue may resume to resolve the North Korean
nuclear issue. Since the statement came as a result of China's
efforts to persuade Pyongyang to return to dialogue by sending Dai
Bingguo to Pyongyang as President Hu Jintao's Special Envoy, Kim's
words are expected to be translated into action. However,
considering that Kim used the words "multilateral dialogue," which
is a vague term that does not specify how many countries are
involved in the talks, we cannot expect the Six-Party Talks to
resume soon. North Korea may have intentionally used the
confusing-sounding term in order to (hint at its goal of) achieving
direct dialogue with the U.S., which it has persistently demanded.
In a situation where the North's return to the Six-Party Talks does
not guarantee the resolution of the nuclear issue, Pyongyang simply
mentioned its intent to hold bilateral and multilateral dialogue
(and did not mention the resolution of the nuclear issue.) North
Korea's state news agency made no report about it, suggesting that
Kim's expression of intent to rejoin dialogue does not carry much
weight.
North Korea declared in April that it will never rejoin the
Six-Party Talks. While publicly proposing multilateral dialogue,
the North may demand trilateral or four-party talks in order to
drive a wedge between the Six-Party countries. Judging from its
past behavior, North Korea may also ask for a quid pro quo for
resuming dialogue. This is why we cannot be overly reactive to
Kim's proposal for dialogue.
PREPARE FOR BIG CHANGE IN ADDRESSING N. KOREA'S NUCLEAR ISSUE
(Hankook Ilbo, September 21, 2009, Page 39, Excerpts)
It is encouraging that during a meeting with visiting Chinese State
Councilor Dai Bingguo, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il expressed the
intention (of North Korea) to join bilateral and multilateral
dialogue aimed at denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula. (It is
encouraging) because, by this statement, Pyongyang seems to be
hinting at its return to the Six-Party Talks, which it has strongly
rejected. The North Korean nuclear issue is now taking a new turn.
It is, of course, difficult to be optimistic until we determine the
accurate meaning and intention of Kim's reported statement. A
clearer picture will be revealed through U.S.-North Korea bilateral
dialogue, which is expected to occur next month, and Chinese Premier
Wen Jiabao's visit to Pyongyang. Judging from recent developments,
however, it is fair to say that the North Korean nuclear issue is in
the stage of dialogue.
Amid this situation, the ROKG is taking a cautious attitude, saying,
"We need to fully examine in what context Kim's statement was made."
There is nothing wrong with the ROKG's position that it will make a
judgment after confirming what intentions and conditions the North
has behind such overtures. However, we cannot shake off the feeling
that Seoul is too inactive or passive toward the possibility of a
big change in addressing North Korea's nuclear issue. It also looks
timid and defensive to be on the guard against any progress on
U.S.-North Korea relations out of concern over North Korea's
SEOUL 00001501 006 OF 008
strategy of "promoting exchange with the United States and blocking
off South Korea."
After the third North Korean nuclear crisis, relevant nations are
now in the phase of seeking a new framework of dialogue to resolve
the issue. The ROKG should play a leading and proactive role in
this process. It should remember that, if the U.S. and China lead
the efforts to create a framework, the ROK, although a direct party
to Korean Peninsula issues, would have to sit on the sideline.
President Lee Myung-bak left for the U.S. yesterday to attend a
meeting of the UN General Assembly and the G20 Financial Summit in
Pittsburgh. President Lee should use this visit as an opportunity
to take a leadership role while at the same time adopting a more
active attitude toward this new development in the North Korean
nuclear issue.
DON'T FALL FOR NORTH'S TRICKS
(JoongAng Ilbo, September 19, 2009, Page 34)
The North Korean nuclear issue is facing an important turning point.
The United States is getting ready to offer an incentive to North
Korea before (holding) a bilateral meeting with the communist
country, while China has dispatched a special envoy to Pyongyang in
an attempt to coax the country into returning to the Six-Party
Talks. At the same time, Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada, a
senior figure in the Democratic Party, previously said that the new
administration will take "a tough stance" with North Korea,
emphasizing that talks with the country will come only after the
regime launches an investigation into its abduction of Japanese
people and freezes nuclear and missile tests. And Yu Myung-hwan,
South Korean foreign minister, said on Friday, "I think resolving
the nuclear issue should be prioritized before the inter-Korean
issue."
The U.S. and China seem to be reaching out, which is a different
approach than the one Japan and South Korea are taking. North Korea
is trying to turn the tables in its favor by approaching South Korea
and the United States in a friendly manner, taking advantage of its
position after the release of two U.S. female journalists who were
charged with trespassing. And the U.S. government is seemingly
responding positively, signaling that it wants to resolve the
nuclear issue through dialogue now that it has discovered that
sanctions alone won't work. That is a so-called two-track strategy,
which basically seems appropriate. But for the strategy to succeed,
prudent execution is necessary. This, after all, is North Korea, a
country that has successfully used skillful brinkmanship to get its
way.
The first step for success is to stick to the framework of the
Six-Party Talks. Immediately after the announcement of UN
sanctions, North Korea proclaimed that the Six-Party Talks had
"ended permanently." North Korea, according to some observers, is
attempting to induce the U.S. to withdraw its forces from South
Korea by developing nuclear weapons. Resolving the nuclear issue is
closely tied to the peace of the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia
in a broader sense.
The sanctions on the North should not be lifted until there is some
real progress to report in terms of resolving the nuclear issue. In
the past 20 years of negotiations with North Korea, the country has
always demanded the lifting of sanctions as a prerequisite to
beginning negotiations. Experts say that North Korea aims to catch
up with India when it comes to the nuclear development race.
But North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons is a scary
proposition for the world. It is a huge threat to this region and
could trigger a nuclear domino effect across Northeast Asia.
(This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is
identical to the Korean version.)
WHAT PRESIDENT LEE SHOULD DO AT G20 SUMMIT
SEOUL 00001501 007 OF 008
(JoongAng Ilbo, September 21, 2009, page 46)
President Lee Myung-bak arrived in the U.S. this morning to attend
the UN General Assembly, Climate Change Summit and G20 Summit, which
will take place in New York and Pittsburgh. Even though the UN
General Assembly and Climate Change Summit are meaningful, what
President Lee considers most important is the G20 Summit. This is
because, at the Summit, it will be decided where the next G20 Summit
will be held and whether the ROK will be able to host it. President
Lee should make concentrated efforts to host the G20 Summit next
year by having global leaders fully realize the necessity of the
next Summit and the justification for the ROK's hosting. The G20
Summit, if held in the ROK, will provide a significant opportunity
for the ROK to increase its status in the international community.
The Summit for the G20 countries, which account for 85% of the
(world's) GDP, was established when the G7 countries, the European
Union (EU) and 12 emerging economies gathered in Washington in
November 2008 to tackle the unprecedented global financial crisis.
With the shared understanding that the crisis could not be overcome
only through efforts by developed countries, the G20 Summit sought
to involve countries with emerging economies, signaling a change in
the structure of the world order in the wake of the financial
crisis. As a follow-up to the second G20 Summit in London this
April, the third Summit will be held in Pittsburgh on September 24
and 25.
Analysts say that the world economy has surpassed its worst point
and has entered into a recovery phase,,(making) some observers
skeptical about the need to hold the additional G20 Summit. Also,
some European countries question the "representativeness" of the
G20, arguing that the G20 should be decreased to the G13 or G14.
These arguments, (if they are acted upon,) would be to our
disadvantage. Even though the world economy has shown signs of
recovery, (the upturn) is just a result of (sudden) fiscal
expansion, and it is too early to say that the economy is moving
toward sustainable recovery. The prevailing opinion is that it is
too early to implement an exit strategy now. Therefore, G20
countries should continue to cooperate together.
If it is decided that the ROK hosts the fourth G20 Summit, this
signifies that the G20 Summit will serve as a new "rule maker" of
the world economy, replacing the G7 or G8 summit. The ROK is
already a member of the meeting of the Group of 20 Finance Ministers
and Central Bank Governors, and will hold the presidency of the
meeting next year. The ROK, which is being touted as the first
country to recover from the global financial crisis, is well
positioned to play a constructive role as an 'honest broker' between
the developed and developing countries. In every respect, it is
natural and reasonable for the ROK to host next year's G20 summit.
This is a point President Lee should stress in Pittsburgh.
However, the harsh reality is that there are some (who believe) that
the ROK is too reliant on overseas exports and makes small
contributions to the international community. The ROK should make
every effort to dispel this negative perception in order to host the
G20 Summit and enhance its international status.
IT IS TIME TO MAKE CONCERTED EFFORTS FOR SUCCESSFUL NUCLEAR
NEGOTIATIONS
(Hankyoreh Shinmun, September 21, 2009, page 27)
The U.S. and North Korea are swiftly moving to enter into nuclear
negotiations. On September 18, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il
expressed willingness to resolve the denuclearization issue through
bilateral or multilateral talks. The U.S. is engaging in final
discussions to lay out specific incentives for the North. All
countries concerned should make concerted efforts for successful
negotiations.
What matters most is North Korea's resolution. Pyongyang has made
conciliatory gestures toward the outside world without, however,
SEOUL 00001501 008 OF 008
mentioning any intention to abandon its nuclear program. According
to a Chinese source, Kim Jong-il told Chinese State Councilor Dai
Bingguoon on September 18 that North Korea will seek the goal of
denuclearization. If this is true, Pyongyang should make its
position clear to the world and proactively engage in related
negotiations. The North also should clarify whether it will
participate in the Six-Party Talks. There is no other framework
that can fundamentally replace the Six-Party Talks, (which should
continue) even if they are somewhat ineffective. Therefore, North
Korea's equivocal remarks on multilateral talks only invite
suspicion from related countries.
The U.S.'s active commitment is a requisite for successful
negotiations. The U.S. should go through full consultations to come
up with effective incentives and ways of negotiations in order to
get North Korea to give up its nuclear ambition at the upcoming
U.S.-North Korea talks. In particular, since the outcome of initial
dialogue could become an important test to determine all future
negotiations, the two nations should think about ways to increase
mutual trust. They could establish a liaison office in each other's
countries on the condition that North Korea expresses the intention
to abandon its nuclear programs. It is also important that they
should focus on the nuclear issue so that momentum of dialogue may
not be lost.
The ROKG, for its part, should abandon its passive attitude toward
nuclear negotiations, including the U.S.-North Korea dialogue. The
key to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is (premised on)
a decision by North Korea (to abandon its nuclear program), but all
relevant nations share the responsibility to create an environment
where Pyongyang will make a wise decision. Nevertheless, the ROKG
has lost its ground by making all Korean Peninsula issues
conditional on denuclearization. This attitude is highly likely to
become a stumbling block to future negotiations. Seoul should
change its North Korea policy in a way that will allow it to take a
leadership role in negotiations while making efforts to advance
inter-Korean relations and resolve the nuclear issue.
(We should not sway in our support for) the principle of
denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula under any circumstances.
In order to persuade Pyongyang to give up the illusion that it can
be recognized as a nuclear state and to abandon its nuclear
programs, relevant nations should demonstrate their strong
commitment toward negotiations. Now is the time when joint efforts
are desperately needed.
STEPHENS
View as: DESKTOP | MOBILE © Scoop Media