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OO RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHTRO #0870/01 3111717
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O R 061717Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY TRIPOLI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4085
INFO RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 0076
RUEHKV/AMEMBASSY KYIV 0014
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO 1270
RUEHTU/AMEMBASSY TUNIS 0648
RUEHAS/AMEMBASSY ALGIERS 0796
RUEHRB/AMEMBASSY RABAT 0740
RUEHDM/AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS 0073
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHTRO/AMEMBASSY TRIPOLI 4607
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TRIPOLI 000870
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR NEA/MAG
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/6/2018
TAGS: PREL MASS MARR TRGY EPET RS BO UP LY
SUBJECT: AL-QADHAFI'S RUSSIA TRIP SIGNALS DESIRE FOR FOREIGN POLICY
BALANCE REF: A) TRIPOLI 340, B) TRIPOLI 688, C) TRIPOLI 829, D) TRIPOLI 1033, E) TRIPOLI 699 TRIPOLI 00000870 001.2 OF
002 CLASSIFIED BY: Chris Stevens, CDA, Embassy Tripoli, U.S. Dept of State. REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 1. (C) Summary:
Apparently seeking to balance perceptions of recent overtures to the U.S. and Italy, Libyan leader Muammar al-Qadhafi
conducted a five-day visit to Russia, Belarus and Kiev. Expectations that major agreements for large military equipment
sales, gas exports and an "OPEC for natural gas" appear to have been inflated - al-Qadhafi left Moscow with a framework
agreement for civilian nuclear cooperation and potential defense purchases in the future. Russian Embassy officials in
Tripoli implied, but did not state, that media reports that Libya had agreed to provide a naval base in Benghazi to the
Russian navy were inaccurate. They also expressed frustration at Libya's failure to implement previously concluded
agreements, noting that the GOL had nonetheless pushed hard to sign a bevy of ill-prepared agreements during
al-Qadhafi's visit. Most local observers said that al-Qadhafi's visit was designed to signal to the U.S. and other
western powers that despite its relatively recent reintegration into the international community, Libya is an
independent actor that will seek to balance its engagement between East and West. The relatively prominent role played
by Muatassim al-Qadhafi, son of Muammar al-Qadhafi and National Security Adviser, suggests that he is becoming a more
seriously-regarded player in the regime. End Summary. AMID HEIGHTENED EXPECTATIONS, MEDIA ANTICIPATES MAJOR AGREEMENTS
... 2. (U) Libyan leader Muammar al-Qadhafi made his first trip to Moscow since 1985 during a five-day, three-country
tour of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. Russian Poloff Evgeny Kozlov gave Poloff a readout of the Russia stop on November
5. Al-Qadhafi's delegation included his son, National Security Adviser Muatassim al-Qadhafi, Foreign Minister
Abudlrahman Shalgam, External Security Organization Director Musa Kusa, and National Oil Corporation Chairman Shukri
Ghanem, all of whom held meetings and pursued negotiations on the margins. Citing senior Russian and Libyan sources,
media reports in the run-up to the visit predicted major defense, energy (natural gas) and nuclear agreements. 3. (C)
Muatassim al-Qadhafi and Kusa arrived in the Kremlin in advance of al-Qadhafi for meetings with the Foreign Ministry and
security officials, fueling expectations that Libya would sign long-awaited arms deals rumored to be worth upwards of
USD two billion. Russian Embassy officials told us in advance of the visit that a joint Russia-Libya military
cooperation committee was working to finalize defense procurement contracts. The failure to conclude contracts for sale
of military equipment to Libya during the visit to Libya earlier this year by former President Putin had been a
disappointment for the Kremlin (ref A). Russian newspaper Russkiy Kommersant - the media organ in which Saif al-Islam
al-Qadhafi, son and putative heir of Muammar al-Qadhafi previewed his announcement in mid-August of his intention to
withdraw from politics - also reported at the outset of the visit that Tripoli would offer Russia the right to establish
a naval base in the eastern Libyan city of Benghazi. Multiple media reports claimed the two sides had also concluded a
civilian nuclear agreement encompassing construction of nuclear power plants and nuclear medical cooperation. 4. (C)
Rhetoric for the visit was grandiose, with much made of Russian-Libyan agreement on "strengthening the foundations of a
multi-polar world and political settlement of conflict situations". Referring to al-Qadhafi's crowning in August by
African tribal leaders as "King of Kings" in Africa, Kozlov joked that al-Qadhafi now aspired to be "the Great Balancer"
between East and West. A range of diplomatic and private sector contacts in Tripoli attributed the timing of the visit
to al-Qadhafi's desire to remind the world that he has options and is not beholden to the west in the wake of a recent
colonial compensation agreement with Italy (ref B) and a comprehensive claims agreement for terrorism claims with the
U.S. Reiterating familiar themes, al-Qadhafi lamented that the world had become unipolar and unstable because of
"violations of the balance of power". ... RUSSIAN EMBASSY CONFIRMS ONLY ONE TRIPOLI 00000870 002.2 OF 002 5. (C) Kozlov
said the two sides ultimately signed only a general framework agreement for civilian nuclear cooperation that had been
the subject of negotiations for several years. (Note: Per ref A, an MOU was signed during Putin's visit in April
committing both sides to concluding a formal cooperation agreement on civilian uses of nuclear energy by the end of
2008. End note.) Kozlov refused to confirm that Libya had offered Russia use of a naval base in Benghazi, but seemed to
downplay the possibility by stressing Russia's efforts to restore a large naval base in Tartus, Syria. He confirmed that
the Russian navy planned at least two more port calls in Libya by warships during 2009, following on last month's visit
by a flotilla en route to Venezuela (ref C). Kozlov said Muatassim al-Qadhafi discussed military cooperation and engaged
in negotiations for big-ticket defense equipment sales, but gave no specifics and indicated nothing had been finalized.
6. (C) Moscow still hopes to reach agreement for an "OPEC for natural gas" with Libya, Qatar, and Iran; however, we were
told the only energy agreement discussed in Moscow was a three-way deal between Gazprom, Eni, and Libya's National Oil
Corporation to build additional pipelines and a refining facility in Libya. The GOL also offered to direct investment
from its sovereign wealth fund to Russian firms hard hit by the global financial crisis, focusing particularly on those
that had suffered losses on investments in U.S. markets and financial instruments. LIBYA SHOOTS FOR THE MOON, RUSSIA
DEMURES 7. (C) Echoing complaints we heard from Spanish counterparts in the wake of al-Qadhafi's visit to Madrid in
December 2007 (ref D), Kozlov said Libyan officials "dusted off agreements that were still under negotiation" on the eve
of the Moscow visit, expecting that they could be readied for signature. Pointing to delays in implementing commercial
and military agreements that constituted part of the agreement earlier this year to forgive USD 4.5 billion of
Soviet-era debt, Kozlov bemoaned the fact that " ...the Libyans always want to sign everything, but only implement what
they want - an agreement is only valid if both sides read it the same way". According to media reports, stops in Minsk
and Kiev saw technical agreements on prevention of double taxation and expressions of mutual cooperation in the energy
sector. Notably missing from public announcements were announcements of weapons sales, although media reports indicated
al-Qadhafi discussed purchasing strategic and tactical airlift assets in Ukraine. 8. (C) Comment: Al-Qadhafi's itinerary
and the trip's timing - he touched down in Moscow on the same day the final deposits were made in a humanitarian relief
fund to compensate U.S. victims of Libyan acts of terrorism - suggested a desire to signal that Libya is not beholden to
the west and still has foreign policy options, themes he touched on directly in his Revolution Day speech on August 31
(ref E). While the GOL wants to preserve room for maneuver with respect to energy and arms purchases, several reliable
Libyan interlocutors noted that Libya's relationship with Russia has never been genuinely warm. "Libyans believe
Russians are too dour and are not trustworthy", one contact with regime ties told us. The fact that Muatassim al-Qadhafi
featured in the visits is an interesting development, suggesting that he is becoming a more seriously-regarded player in
the regime. Our Russian interlocutor bemoaned Moscow's lack of understanding of intra-Libyan regime dynamics, noting
that Muatassim was initially scheduled to meet only mid-level bureaucrats until the Russian Embassy in Tripoli
intervened to explain that he was a potential successor to his father. His reports from Moscow were that Muatassim took
a clear lead in his meetings, albeit with Musa Kusa at his side as an advisor, and comported himself reasonably well.
End comment. STEVENS