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SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE VISIT OF SE WILLIAMSON TO LIBYA
1. (SBU) Your trip to Libya comes one month after Secretary Rice's historic visit marked a new chapter in Libya's
re-engagement with the West and nearly two months after a U.S.-Libyan agreement to settle outstanding claims for
compensation for attacks including the Lockerbie bombing of 1988. In recent years, Libyan Leader Muammar al-Qadhafi has
rebranded himself as a leader of Africa and a mediator in African affairs. He is personally invested in peace in Chad
and Sudan. Libya's diplomatic effort is led by Dr. Ali Treiki, a career diplomat and former foreign minister with over
40 years of experience. QADHAFI'S LEADERSHIP ASPIRATIONS 2. (SBU) Libya celebrated 39 years of the "Al-Fateh" revolution
last month. Since taking power in a bloodless coup in 1969, Qadhafi has pursued policies ranging from support for
terrorism, rebellion, and insurgency to forging diplomatic bonds throughout the Arab and African spheres. The Sirte
Declaration of September 1999 is touted here as the genesis of the African Union and a platform for the future "United
States of Africa." Domestic propaganda celebrates Qadhafi as the father and guide of closer integration on the
continent. Despite his leadership aspirations, the Leader is open to an international solution for Darfur. During her
visit, the Secretary told Qadhafi that the U.S. wants to cooperate with Libya to secure peace in Africa and particularly
in Sudan. 3. (SBU) Resolving the conflict in Darfur is also strategically important for Libya. Regime security depends,
in part, on regional security. Senior GOL officials have made it clear that they are concerned that al-Qaida and
associated groups could gain a foothold in ungoverned areas like Darfur. They worry about a potential "belt of
terrorism" running from Somalia in the east to Mauritania in the west. A secure Sudan would bisect that belt, but if
Chad and Sudan are unable to control their territories, Libya fears its own desert south will be vulnerable to terrorist
infiltration. LIBYA'S POINT-MAN ON DARFUR, SUDAN, CHAD 4. (SBU) Dr. Ali Treiki personally leads the GOL's diplomatic
engagement on African issues. Treiki is a career diplomat who has served multiple times as PermRep in New York and as
foreign minister. He now handles the Africa portfolio within the Foreign Ministry, but sits in the Prime Minister's
office -- possibly a sign of his unique status within the GOL, as he is said to report directly to the Leader, and not
to the Foreign Minister. Treiki will leave Libya in the spring or summer of next year to take on the presidency of the
UN General Assembly for 2009. 5. (SBU) Treiki is supportive of the UN-AU peace process in principle, but worries about
the effectiveness of AU troops in the region. He sees reconciliation between Chad and Sudan as a prerequisite to peace
in Darfur and has hosted meetings between both sides to reach an end to hostilities. Treiki is willing to pay lip
service to the Dakar Process and the efforts of the Contact Group in order to maintain cordial African relations. He has
expressed doubt about the effectiveness of Arab League or Qatari intervention. He sees tri-lateral engagement between
Libya, Chad, and Sudan as the most promising approach, given these governments' direct stake in the outcome. He views
last month's agreement to exchange ambassadors between N'Djamena and Khartoum as a first step toward Chadian-Sudanese
cooperation that will include a bilateral peacekeeping force to monitor the border. Treiki recently told us that Libya
strongly opposes the ICC indictment of President Bashir, believing this will only harden Bashir's stance on Darfur. 6.
(SBU) Libya's previous attempts to broker peace under Treiki's guidance have not yet borne fruit. The Darfur peace
conference held in Sirte in 2007 disbanded after key rebel groups failed to attend. An intra-Chadian reconciliation
conference held at the same time and attended by President Deby, Bashir, and Chadian rebels resulted in an agreed
ceasefire. That ceasefire proved to be shortlived, however, and rebels resumed their attacks against the government in
February 2008. Chadian intra-rebel talks held in Tripoli last spring and observed by the EU and UN also fizzled. TRIPOLI
00000764 002 OF 002 7. (SBU) Treiki enjoyed a good relationship with your predecessor and appreciates working with the
United States. He thinks Libya is best positioned to bring peace to Darfur because of its proximity to the conflict, but
he is open to effective foreign cooperation. However, he believes the situation in Sudan is an African problem that
demands an African solution and will prefer to work within the framework of a resurrected Sirte agreement. MANAGING
PERCEPTIONS IMPORTANT FOR COOPERATION 8. (SBU) Qadhafi's desire to be viewed as a leader defines the parameters under
which Libya can coordinate efforts in Sudan. He has railed against Western colonization in Africa and raised his
concerns on AFRICOM with the Secretary. Treiki will need to balance the Leader's interest in success in Sudan with the
need to show independence and leadership. STEVENS