Cablegate: Daily Summary of Japanese Press 07/22/08

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TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA

SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 07/22/08

INDEX:

(1) Marc Knapper of U.S. Embassy in Tokyo is promising Japan expert

(Foresight)

(2) Fukuda-style politics (Part 1): Fukuda has no "right-hand man"

(Nikkei)

(3) JCP's Nihi slams subservience to U.S. (Akahata)

(4) Bush plays up U.S. military realignment, Fukuda vows

implementation (Akahata)

(5) DPJ's Hatoyama proposes debate on Afghan aid (Akahata)

(6) Ten years since establishment of DPJ; No blueprint for achieving

equal alliance between Japan and U.S. alliance (Mainichi)

(7) Special Advisor to Prime Minister Kyoko Nakayama: Dialogue on

return of abductees with pressure as tool (Sankei)

(8) Poll on Fukuda cabinet, political parties, G-8 summit, North

Korea abductions, consumption tax (Tokyo Shimbun)

(9) Cold eyes on Defense Minister Ishiba (Foresight)

(10) TOP HEADLINES

(11) EDITORIALS

ARTICLES:

(1) Marc Knapper of U.S. Embassy in Tokyo is promising Japan expert

FORESIGHT (Page 31) (Full)

August 2008

It has been a long time since observers pointed out that the number

of Japan experts has decreased in the U.S. government. However, Marc

Knapper, 38, who arrived last year at his current post of deputy of

the political section at the U.S. Embassy, is a promising U.S.

diplomat. There is a rumor that Knapper will be promoted to

minister-counselor (for political affairs) to succeed incumbent

Minister-Counselor Michael Meserve, who will leave the post next

year. A Japanese government official said hopefully: "He will become

an influential Japan expert in the future like Richard Armitage and

Michael Green."

After learning Japanese politics at Princeton University, Knapper

studied at the University of Tokyo. He even worked at the

International Affairs Division of the ruling Liberal Democratic

Party (LDP). As he speaks fluent Japanese, he has built wide-ranging

personal connections with Japanese Diet members and their

secretaries. He knows Tatsuo Fukuda, the oldest son of Prime

Minister Yasuo Fukuda, a policy secretary to the prime minister.

Knapper is well versed also in Korean affairs and speaks Korean.

Under the Clinton administration, he flew to Pyongyang for

negotiations prior to a visit to North Korea by then Secretary of

State Madeleine Albright. A Foreign Ministry official said: "I have

exclusively held negotiations with Mr. Knapper on onerous bilateral

issues."

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There is no way to predict who will win the U.S. presidential

election, Republican Senator John McCain or Democratic Senator

Barack Obama. A source familiar with Japan-U.S. relations commented:

"Mr. Knapper will support the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo whatever

government is formed."

(2) Fukuda-style politics (Part 1): Fukuda has no "right-hand man"

NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full)

July 17, 2008

Criticism has become stronger regarding Prime Minister Yasuo

Fukuda's management of his administration. Fukuda's political method

that sometimes changes depending on the situation has confused even

his aides. With an eye on the next House of Representatives

election, Fukuda must first overcome many hurdles. This newspaper

probes into the Fukuda-style of politics.

Issues instructions out of blue

"Expenditures for public service corporations will be cut by 30

PERCENT ," Fukuda said slowly in an informal cabinet meeting on July

4. Since he made the instruction without holding prior coordination

with relevant ministries and agencies, as well as with

special-interest policy cliques in the Diet, government officials

were surprised at his instruction, with one official saying: "It was

a total surprise."

Although the ministries and agencies concerned were aware of a

pending reduction in annual expenditures, they did not expect a 30

percent cut. On the night of July 4, Fukuda told reporters: "The

expenditures will be cut even more." A government source said in a

hesitant way: "Even a 30 percent cut is difficult."

Fukuda's lack of communication with others sometimes created

negative effects. One typical example occurred in March when the

government's nomination for the new governor of the Bank of Japan

was repeatedly rejected by the main opposition Democratic Party of

Japan. The reason is because Fukuda failed to present the first

nomination to the Diet because he had been busy with the handling of

the collision of an Aegis ship and small fishing boat. He submitted

the second nomination, while the opposition was negatively reacting

to the ruling coalition having rammed through the bill on a budget

for fiscal 2008 in late February. Fukuda did not convey his decision

even to Chief Cabinet Secretary Machimura until the last minute.

Since the opposition did not approve the second nomination, as well,

the BOJ governorship was vacant for three weeks. As a result, many

in the ruling camp grew concerned about the situation.

Political observers note that an absence of those politicians who

would serve to convey Fukuda's intentions has undermined his

administration.

Fukuda is now serving in his sixth-term in the Lower House. Diet

members serving in their 6th-term are regarded in Nagato-cho as

mid-level lawmakers. Since Fukuda has never headed any faction, he

did not need to have a "right-hand man" to coordinate views.

Concerned that Fukuda may give up the prime minister's post

In June and early July, prior to Group of Eight (G-8) summit, for

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which Fukuda became passionately devoted, speculation was afoot that

he might resign his position after the event.

The Fukuda cabinet's approval ratings have been at the 20

percent-level. Fukuda has been unable to manage his administration

as he wishes because of the divided Diet. Abe's sudden resignation

is still a fresh memory. Fukuda also suddenly quit the chief cabinet

secretary post due to his failure to pay pension premium payments.

Fukuda's equidistant political stance worked well when he

established the government backed by main LDP factions. However,

close cooperation between the government and ruling parties is

indispensable for handling the next extra Diet session, as well as

for winning a tug-of-the war between the ruling and opposition

camps, which may lead to the next Lower House election.

Even if Fukuda carries out a cabinet shuffle soon, whether it will

lead to boosting his administration will depend on how he manages

his new cabinet. If there is no change in his political methods, the

mood will grown stronger for him to be replaced.

(3) JCP's Nihi slams subservience to U.S.

AKAHATA (Page 2) (Abridged)

July 20, 2008

Sohei Nihi, a House of Councillors member of the Japanese Communist

Party, participated as a panelist in a town meeting held yesterday

in Yokohama by the Junior Chamber International Japan (JCIJ) and

exchanged views with representatives from other political parties on

the Constitution.

Regarding whether Article 9 of the Constitution should be changed

for Japan's international contribution, Nihi stressed that the

United States is now deeply stalemated both in Iraq and in

Afghanistan and is being internationally isolated. "I wonder how

long Japan will follow the United States' unitary hegemony," Nihi

said. "Article 9 is a step ahead in illegalizing wars, so we must

utilize it for politics," he insisted.

Hajime Funada, a House of Representatives member of the Liberal

Democratic Party, said: "We should cross out the second paragraph of

Article 9 for Japan to have armed forces for self-defense. We must

consider how to help America as our ally." Akihisa Nagashima, a

House of Representatives member of the Democratic Party of Japan

(Minshuto), said: "We should repeal the second paragraph of Article

9 and expressly stipulate the Self-Defense Forces. We need to add

another paragraph to describe international peace cooperation."

(4) Bush plays up U.S. military realignment, Fukuda vows

implementation

AKAHATA (Page 2) (Full)

July 20, 2008

Japan and the United States held a summit meeting of Prime Minister

Fukuda and President Bush on July 6 in the Hokkaido town of Toya on

the sidelines of the Group of Eight (G-8) summit held at Lake Toya

in Hokkaido. On that occasion, Bush said the realignment of U.S.

forces in Japan would be important for the next administration, as

well.

On July 18, the government held a consultative meeting with local

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officials from Okinawa's prefectural and municipal governments on

the planned relocation of the U.S. Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station

in Okinawa Prefecture to the prefecture's northern coastal city of

Nago. In this meeting, Foreign Minister Masahiko Koumura revealed

what was discussed in the Fukuda-Bush meeting. According to his

account, Bush told Fukuda: "The realignment of U.S. forces in Japan

is important for the next administration as well, and it is

extremely important to steadily implement the Japan-U.S. agreement."

Fukuda responded, "Japan will steadily implement the roadmap (for

the U.S. military's realignment)."

The United States had expected to take up the U.S. force realignment

as the primary issue on the agenda for the Fukuda-Bush meeting.

The roadmap, including a plan to build a new base in a coastal area

of Nago City for Futenma relocation, describes that the U.S.

military realignment will be completed in 2014. Bush's remarks

indicated that the U.S. military realignment is a 'categorical

imperative' for the Japanese government regardless of the outcome of

this fall's U.S. presidential election.

Bush also stressed the importance of implementing the Japan-U.S.

agreement in a steady way. This can be taken as indicating the

United States' strong rejection not only to Okinawa's public

opposition to the new base but also to Okinawa Gov. Hirokazu

Nakaima's advocacy of building the new base in an offshore area of

Nago City.

(5) DPJ's Hatoyama proposes debate on Afghan aid

AKAHATA (Page 2) (Full)

July 20, 2008

Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto) Secretary General Yukio

Hatoyama, meeting the press in Okayama City on July 19, stated his

views regarding Japan's aid to Afghanistan. "We will not take part

in any plus alpha discussion while continuing the Maritime

Self-Defense Force's deployment to the Indian Ocean," Hatoyama said.

"But," he went on, "if Japan is to do something different from

refueling activities at sea, there's much room for discussion."

"It's hard to envision land- and sea-based activities," Hatoyama

said, referring to specific assistance measures. He added: "We may

discuss whether there's something Japan can do in the area of

aviation or whether Japan can do something involving another

organization that is not the Self-Defense Forces."

(6) Ten years since establishment of DPJ; No blueprint for achieving

equal alliance between Japan and U.S. alliance

MAINICHI (Page 5) (Abridged slightly)

July 18, 2008

Democratic Party of Japan President Ichiro Ozawa held a press

conference in Naha on June 26 in which he said: "Our goal is to take

the reins of government and to establish a Japan-U.S. alliance that

is truly based on equality. We will consider resolving the issues of

the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) and U.S. bases by

respecting the views held by the people of Okinawa." Based on the

results of the June 8 Okinawa prefectural assembly election that

reversed the positions of the ruling and opposition blocs, the party

adopted on July 8 what is called its "Okinawa Vision," in which it

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expressed the party's determination to fundamentally revise the SOFA

and to relocate Futenma Air Station to a site outside Okinawa or

Japan.

In the June 8 prefectural assembly race, the DPJ won four seats,

adding three seats to the one it had previously held. Sueko

Yamauchi, who was elected to the prefectural assembly for the first

time on the DPJ ticket, ascribed her victory to public expectations

for the party to oppose the construction of the new base once it

attains power.

The prefectural assembly in its plenary session on July 18 is

expected to adopt by a majority of votes by the opposition parties

an opinion letter and a resolution opposing the relocation of

Futenma Air Station to the coastal area of Camp Schwab. If approved,

it would be the first resolution opposing the relocation of a U.S.

base within the prefecture since l996, when Prime Minister Ryutaro

Hashimoto led a coalition administration of the LDP, Social

Democratic Party and Sakigake Party.

A local head promoting Futenma's relocation to the Henoko district

thinks the prefectural policy will shift, depending on the

governor's decision.

The DPJ also refused for the first time to endorse the Special

Measures Agreement, the basis for Japan's Host-Nation Support

(sympathy budget) that pays for the costs of stationing U.S. forces

in Japan. That step, too, reflected the DPJ's decision to take a

resolute stance toward the United States in contrast to the

government and LDP's policy of placing highest priority on the

bilateral alliance, a trend that became especially noticeable during

the Koizumi administration. The UN-centered diplomacy advocated by

Ozawa when his party campaigned against an extension of the Maritime

Self-Defense Force operations in the Indian Ocean can be traced to

the same roots, as well.

The Liberal Forum, a group of DPJ lawmakers who reject Japan's

exercising the right to collective self-defense, conducted a seminar

in Hokkaido's Chitose on July 15 in which a heated debate took place

ahead of the upcoming party leadership race. Some members argued,

"Mr. Ozawa said that the country in principle can dispatch the SDF

as long as there is a UN resolution,, saying that such is not

against the Constitution," and: "Mr. Ozawa is liberal, but the

public does not think so. A leadership race is necessary in order

also to make clear that Mr. Ozawa is not oriented toward amending

the Constitution."

The group eventually gave up fielding its own candidate for the

leadership race and called for establishing an international

cooperation force to conduct peacekeeping and humanitarian

operations overseas that would not conflict with Ozawa's UN-centered

thinking. The group's representative, Hideo Hiraoka, explicitly

indicated that fighting the next Lower House race under President

Ozawa is a precondition.

The DPJ has been referred to as a patchwork party since its

establishment, but its members are now banding together for their

ultimate goat of taking power by putting aside their differences in

views on security. Nevertheless, it is also a reality that the DPJ

has no blueprint to clear the self-imposed hurdles, such as a

revision of the SOFA.

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"Once the DPJ takes the reins of government, the party would not

able to oppose the sympathy budget (which is essential for the

Japan-U.S. alliance). This is the last chance to do so (as an

opposition party)." This comment came from Keiichiro Asao, the

shadow cabinet's defense minister, in its cabinet meeting on April

2. Will the DPJ be able to realize a Japan-U.S. alliance based on

equality after taking power? Asao's comment reflected the DPJ's

apprehension.

(7) Special Advisor to Prime Minister Kyoko Nakayama: Dialogue on

return of abductees with pressure as tool

SANKEI (Page 5) (Full)

July 21, 2008

The Japan-North Korea working level talks held in June entered a new

phase. Japan has extracted a promise from North Korea to

reinvestigate abduction cases, based on the assumption that the

abductees are alive, with the aim of locating the whereabouts of

them, including Megumi Yokota, whom Pyongyang has claimed is dead,

and returning them to Japan.

As for the Japanese government's stand on the abduction issue, the

former Shinzo Abe cabinet in 2007 explained that progress on the

abduction issue means Japan and North Korea sharing a common

understanding that the abduction issue must be settled and North

Korea taking concrete action based on that understanding, and that a

settlement of the abduction issue means the return of all abductees,

the shedding of light on the truth and the extradition of those

responsible for abductions.

If the results of the reinvestigation are a fabricated story as was

the case in the past or if the reinvestigation was carried out for

the sake of confirming the abductees' deaths, then Japan should not

lift even part of its economic sanctions against that nation. It is

necessary to nail down that point. If North Korea takes action that

will clearly lead to progress, it may be possible for Japan to lift

part of its sanctions.

Energy aid to North Korea was also on the table of the recent

six-party talks. However, it is only natural that the Japanese

government cannot extend aid, because abducted Japanese nationals

are still in North Korea and North Korea has failed to take any

actions that can be considered as progress.

Prime minister reaches out to G-8 leaders

Former Prime Minister Abe said that he would apply pressure in

implementing his North Korea policy. Japan has applied sanctions

against that nation based on the determination that it would not

respond to calls for talks unless it finds itself in a really

difficult situation. Sanctions have been imposed with dialogue in

mind.

Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda has no intention whatsoever of removing

sanctions as sought by North Korea. His stand is that he will lift

sanctions if North Korea returns abductees to Japan. He is

determined to expedite talks with that nation, using pressure as a

driving force. As such, there is no change at all in the basic

policy lines of Mr. Abe and Prime Minister Fukuda.

Furthermore, Prime Minister Fukuda at the G-8 summit in Hokkaido

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asked for cooperation from leaders of relevant countries so that

North Korea will understand that returning abductees to Japan would

be in its interest.

He took time to explain to those leaders his thoughts that the

abduction issue must be settled by any means. The prime minister is

more preoccupied with the abduction issue than he appears.

Prime minister not weak-kneed

I do not think that relations between the present government and the

abductee family association are not going well. Previously, there

was not even an organization to deal with the abduction issue in the

government. Now, there is the Headquarters on the Abduction Issue.

There is no change in the government's stance that there will be no

normalization of ties unless the abduction issue is settled. Even if

the abductee family association were to say that there is no need

for the government to deal with the issue any more, the government

would be determined to continue its efforts until all the abductees

return to Japan.

I have not heard any strong dissatisfaction with Prime Minister

Fukuda. I always feel the prime minister's strong desire to regain

abductees. I believe the abductees' families also feel that way. I

can assure you that the present government has never slackened its

efforts on the abduction issue nor has it become weak-kneed toward

North Korea.

(Interviewer Takashi Minekuni)

(8) Poll on Fukuda cabinet, political parties, G-8 summit, North

Korea abductions, consumption tax

TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full)

July 13, 2008

Questions & Answers

(Figures shown in percentage. Parentheses denote the results of the

last survey conducted June 12-13.)

Q: Do you support the Fukuda cabinet?

Yes 26.8 (25.0)

No 53.5 (60.2)

Don't know (D/K) + no answer (N/A) 19.7 (14.8)

Q: (Only for those who answered "yes" to the previous question)

What's the primary reason for your approval of the Fukuda cabinet?

Pick only one from among those listed below.

The prime minister is trustworthy 16.6 (20.4)

Because it's a coalition cabinet of the Liberal Democratic Party and

New Komeito 7.2 (12.6)

The prime minister has leadership ability 4.0 (1.2)

Something can be expected of its economic policies 2.2 (5.0)

Something can be expected of its foreign policies 5.9 (3.6)

Something can be expected of its political reforms 3.0 (3.7)

Something can be expected of its tax reforms 0.6 (0.9)

Something can be expected of its administrative reforms 3.7 (0.7)

There's no other appropriate person (for prime minister) 53.9

(47.1)

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