Cablegate: Daily Summary of Japanese Press 07/18/08

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TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA

SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 07/18/08

INDEX:

(1) Poll on Fukuda cabinet, political parties, G-8 summit, North

Korea (Asahi)

(2) Poll on Fukuda cabinet, political parties, new healthcare system

for elderly, North Korea delisting, G-8 summit, consumption tax

(Yomiuri)

(3) Poll on Fukuda cabinet, political parties, G-8 summit,

consumption tax (Mainichi)

(4) Sankei-FNN poll on Fukuda cabinet, political parties, G-8 summit

(Sankei)

(5) Competition for resources on its way: Foreign capital investment

returns to Iraqi oil fields after hiatus of 36 years (Mainichi)

(6) New Komeito in quandary over how to distance itself from prime

minister, unhappy about low public support for cabinet, while

falling in step on policies (Asahi)

(7) Japan must rid itself of sense of dependence on the United

States (Sankei)

ARTICLES:

(1) Poll on Fukuda cabinet, political parties, G-8 summit, North

Korea

ASAHI (Page 4) (Full)

July 15, 2008

Questions & Answers

(Figures shown in percentage, rounded off. Bracketed figures denote

proportions to all respondents. Figures in parentheses denote the

results of the last survey conducted June 14-15.)

Q: Do you support the Fukuda cabinet?

Yes 24 (23)

No 58 (59)

Q: Why? (One reason only. Left column for those marking "yes" on

previous question, and right for those saying "no.")

The prime minister is Mr. Fukuda 15(4) 5(3)

It's an LDP-led cabinet 31(7) 21(12)

From the aspect of policies 24(6) 61(36)

No particular reason 26(6) 11(6)

Q: Which political party do you support now?

Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 26 (22)

Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 24 (22)

New Komeito (NK) 2 (4)

Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 2 (2)

Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 1 (1)

People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0 (0)

New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 0 (0)

Other political parties 0 (0)

None 40 (41)

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No answer (N/A) + don't know (D/K) 5 (8)

Q: The Group of Eight (G-8) decided in its Hokkaido Toyako summit

meeting this time to call on the world to halve by 2050 its CO2 and

other greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming. The G-8

and other countries, including China and India, held a meeting after

that and then agreed to the necessity of setting a target for

greenhouse gas emissions cuts without touching on how far to reduce

greenhouse gas emissions. Do you support the outcome of the talks

this time?

Yes 32

No 53

Q: China, India, and other newly emerging countries were asked to

take on the obligation to reduce their CO2 emissions, but they

insisted that developing countries should first set a goal for

substantial cuts in their CO2 emissions. Is this assertion

convincing?

Yes 37

No 50

Q: Prime Minister Fukuda presided over the G-8 summit this time. Do

you think he displayed leadership as its chair?

Yes 24

No 60

Q: North Korea declared its nuclear programs in response to requests

from relevant countries. Do you appreciate this North Korean

response?

Yes 16

No 76

Q: In response to North Korea's nuclear declaration, the U.S. is now

in the process of delisting North Korea as a state sponsor of

terrorism. Do you appreciate this U.S. response?

Yes 17

No 71

Q: How do you think delisting North Korea as a state sponsor of

terrorism will affect the issue of Japanese nationals abducted to

North Korea in resolving this issue?

It will have a good impact 4

It will have a negative impact 51

It will have no impact 30

Q: Raising the consumption tax is a major theme in discussing tax

reform. Do you think it is necessary to raise the consumption tax?

(Figures in parentheses are the results of a survey taken in

November 2007.)

Yes 44 (43)

No 47 (49)

Q: About raising the consumption tax, Prime Minister Fukuda said:

"This is an important time when I must make up my mind." Later on,

he explained, "I think it would take a couple of years or more." Do

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you appreciate this stance?

Yes 24

No 65

Q: How much do you appreciate Mr. Ozawa for what he has said and

done as DPJ president? (One choice only)

Very much 1

Somewhat 35

Not very much 45

Not at all 16

Q: Which one between Prime Minister Ozawa and DPJ President Ozawa do

you think is appropriate for prime minister?

Mr. Fukuda 37

Mr. Ozawa 28

Polling methodology: The survey was conducted July 12-13 over the

telephone on a computer-aided random digit dialing (RDD) basis.

Respondents were chosen from among the nation's voting population on

a three-stage random-sampling basis. Valid answers were obtained

from 1,975 persons (57 PERCENT ).

(2) Poll on Fukuda cabinet, political parties, new healthcare system

for elderly, North Korea delisting, G-8 summit, consumption tax

YOMIURI (Page 11) (Full)

July 15, 2008

Questions & Answers

(Figures shown in percentage. Parentheses denote the results of a

survey taken in June.)

Q: Do you support the Fukuda cabinet?

Yes 26.6 (25.1)

No 61.3 (63.4)

Other answers (O/A) 1.0 0.7

None 35.6 (39.0)

D/K + Can't say (C/S) 1.2 (1.3)

Q: Do you appreciate Prime Minister Fukuda and his cabinet on the

following points?

Personal character

Yes 45.3 (46.2)

No 44.9 (42.4)

D/K+CSW 9.8 (11.4)

Foreign policy

Yes 17.8 (24.7)

No 66.0 (53.7)

D/K+CSW 16.2 (21.6)

Response to healthcare, pension issues

Yes 12.9 (11.0)

No 77.5 (79.9)

D/K+CSW 9.6 (9.1)

Policy toward North Korea

Yes 14.9 (22.1)

No 71.9 (61.9)

D/K+CSW 13.2 (16.0)

TOKYO 00002000 008 OF 013

Q: The Group of Eight (G-8) summit held at Lake Toya in Hokkaido for

this year agreed to share a global target of halving greenhouse gas

emissions by 2050. Do you appreciate this?

Yes 52.5

No 36.9

D/K+CSW 10.6

Q: There is an argument insisting that the G-8 summit should involve

China, India, and other newly emerging economies. Do you agree to

this argument?

Yes 77.2

No 14.3

D/K+CSW 8.5

Q: What would you like Prime Minister Fukuda and his government to

pursue on a priority basis?

Fiscal policy to cut down on waste 38.8 (37.1)

Social security, including healthcare and pension systems 26.4

(27.7)

Economic measures, including price stabilization 14.3 (13.5)

Tax reform, including the consumption tax 4.7 (5.9)

Global warming 4.6 (4.8)

Consumer administration 3.8 (2.6)

Public security 2.6 (2.9)

North Korea 1.8 (2.9)

D/K+C/S 3.0 (2.6)

Q: When would you like the next election to take place for the House

of Representatives?

Right now 15.3

Within this year 34.4

During the first half of next year 28.0

During the latter half of next year 15.3

D/K+C/S 7.0

Polling methodology: The survey was conducted July 12-13 by the

Sankei Shimbun and Fuji News Network (FNN) over the telephone on a

computer-aided random digit dialing (RDD) basis. For the survey, a

total of 1,000 persons were sampled from among men and women aged 20

and over, across the nation.

(5) Competition for resources on its way: Foreign capital investment

returns to Iraqi oil fields after hiatus of 36 years

MAINICHI (Page 3) (Excerpts)

July 18, 2008

It has been five years and a half since the outbreak of the Iraq

war, which was once dubbed a "war for the sake of oil." In order to

begin full-scale reconstruction of the country, the Iraq government

late last month decided to allow foreign companies to participate in

the development of the nation's oil and gas fields. Four Japanese

companies will likely join the projects. The return of foreign

capital investment to Iraq's oil industry comes after a hiatus of 36

years, the gas and oil-fields having been nationalized in 1972. Iraq

plans to increase its oil output to 500,000 barrels a day over a

short period of time and to bring production up to 1.5 million

barrels by 2013. It will start by bringing in state-of-the-art

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technology to revive oil fields that have been repeatedly ravaged by

war. International competition to gain access to resources in Iraq,

which has the third largest oil reserves in the world, has only just

begun.

In approving foreign participation, the Iraq government has focused

mainly on European and American oil majors to develop six oil

fields, including the Rumaila oil field in southern Iraq and the

Kirkuk oil field in the northern part. There also are two gas

fields, including Akkas, to be developed. Thirty-five companies have

obtained rights to bid on the projects. The winners would sign

tentative contracts by next June.

Foreign capital penetration of Iraq could affect other Middle

Eastern countries that now reject such a presence in their oil

markets. Oil production output by Iran is growing at a sluggish pace

due to insufficient repairs and inspections of oil fields. Given the

surging price of crude oil, the oil-producing countries are eager to

boost income by increasing production. An official of Global

Insight, a U.S.-British research company, expressed high hopes, "The

case this time could become a model case for having the technology

of international majors used by other oil producing countries in the

Middle East."

However, the Iraqi people remain highly distrustful of European and

U.S. companies coming in, with one official noting, "The U.S.

military launched war with an eye on obtaining our oil." There

remains a possibility of attacks on oil-related facilities

increasing again.

Money pouring into the market from speculators anticipating future

increases in oil demand has been a major factor contributing to the

steep rise in crude oil prices, a phenomenon that started last

year.

Iraq's decision follows Saudi Arabia's late June announcement that

it plans to increase oil production. Some market players hoped that

such moves could put an end to surging crude-oil prices.

Domestic confrontation over distribution of protests

Iraq exports 2.1 million barrels of crude oil a day. The value of

those exports in 2008 is estimated to reach $60-80 billion due to

the steep rise in crude oil prices. The amount well exceeds the

nation's national budget ($46.8 billion).

There continue to be domestic disputes over ownership of rights.

Some huge oil fields are concentrated in the Shiite-dominated

southern part of Iraq and in the northern part, adjacent to the

region inhabited by the Kurds. There are few oil fields in the

Sunni-dominated region.

The Iraq government, realizing that if confrontation between

religious sects and ethnic groups grows deeper, the country will

become divided again and face another crisis, adopted at a cabinet

meeting in February 2007 a new petroleum bill featuring the central

government uniformly managing profits on oil exports. However, the

Kurds opposed this decision, so there is no prospect for the bill to

be enacted.

Oil Minister Al-Shahristani appearing on a TV program in Iraq in

mid-June underscored, "Attacks on pipelines have fallen from an

TOKYO 00002000 010 OF 013

average of 30 times per month last year to only four times this

year." In particular, attacks on pipelines between Kirkuk and

Ceyhan, Turkey, have decreased.

Iraqi forces have been endeavoring to restore order, assisted by

U.S. forces, as can be seen in the tougher crack-downs since late

March on Shiite Muslim militias in such areas as Basra, where large

oil fields are concentrated.

Japan desperate to take part in exploration projects, saying that

Iraq is an indispensable partner

Japan dispatched Ground Self-Force personnel to Samawah from January

2004 through July 2006. The Air Self-Defense Force is still engaging

in airlifting operations between Kuwait and Iraq. Japan remains

desperate to secure oil interests.

Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) Minister Akira

Amari, suddenly visited Iraq, flying in on an SDF plane June 25,

five days before the Iraqi government decided which companies could

bid for contracts. He strongly urged the Baghdad to allow Japanese

companies to take part in its projects, stressing that Iraq is

"Japan's indispensable partner." Characterizing Iraq as a key

country for Japan's resource diplomacy, METI has been working to

arrange Amari's visit to Iraq since the beginning of this year and

only realized it at the last moment.

Four Japanese companies -- Mitsubishi Corporation, ENEOA, JAPEX and

INPEX -- will take part in the bidding. They will likely take part

in cooperation with the oil majors.

Iraq is pinning its hopes on Japan's reconstruction assistance. In

order to back Japanese companies' bid to participate in Iraq's oil

and gas development projects, it may be necessary for the government

to come up with even more reconstruction assistance measures than

ever.

(6) New Komeito in quandary over how to distance itself from prime

minister, unhappy about low public support for cabinet, while

falling in step on policies

ASAHI (Page 4) (Full)

July 18, 2008

The New Komeito has been in a quandary over how to distance itself

from Prime Minister Fukuda. The ruling coalition partner of the

Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has implemented policies in step with

Fukuda, who appreciates the party's policies. But some party members

are now calling for a change of prime minister due to the low public

support for the Fukuda Cabinet. In an informal meeting of its local

assembly members yesterday, participants raised doubts about the

party continuing to be the junior partner of the coalition. Such

views might cast a pall over the next general election.

"90 PERCENT of New Komeito's policies implemented"

The meeting at New Komeito headquarters yesterday brought together

39 members of municipal, ward, and town assemblies in Eastern Japan.

A municipal assemblyman from the Tohoku District told President Ota,

Deputy President Toshiko Hamayotsu, and other executive members: "Is

it all right for our party to go down with the LDP's sinking ship?"

TOKYO 00002000 011 OF 013

One participant said that the government has not responded to

complaints about skyrocketing commodity prices and increased burden

of medical and nursing care costs. The atmosphere in the meeting was

oppressive. Since the meeting was aimed at listening to requests

from local assembly members, the executives gave no replies, but

President Ota emphasized to reporters after the meeting: "It is

essential to give top priority to matters related to livelihood of

the people."

Since its inauguration, the Fukuda administration has implemented

one New-Komeito requested policy after another. The government

promptly took measures to ban cluster bombs and to make public

elementary and middle school buildings quake-resistant in response

to requests by the New Komeito.

According to a New Komeito member, "Fukuda, who has taken a pro-Asia

policy, has views closer to those of the New Komeito than any other

previous prime minister. Seeing Ota frequently talking with Fukuda

on his cell phone, a New Komeito lawmaker called Ota "a virtual

special advisor to the prime minister." A mid-ranking lawmaker

commented: "The Prime Minister's Office implements exactly what the

New Komeito requests about 90 PERCENT of the time."

Joint downfall concerned

Despite such a situation, dissatisfaction is emerging among local

assembly members, because the New Komeito's ties with Fukuda are

seen as excessively close. On July 2, former President Takenori

Kanzaki said: "It is still unknown that the House of Representatives

will be dissolved under Mr. Fukuda or under a successor to Mr.

Fukuda, for whom public support remains low," indicating that there

might be a change of prime minister. He also expressed his fear that

the New Komeito could go down together with the prime minister.

A House of Representatives member who will have to run against a

member of the Democratic Party of Japan in a single-seat

constituency in the next Lower House election said in a state of

panic: "I don't think public support for the Fukuda Cabinet will

ever go up even if the administration does something very nice. I do

not want to campaign for the next Lower House election under Prime

Minister Fukuda. No matter how many policies the LDP and the New

Komeito jointly implement, if the government falters, the New

Komeito will also falter."

Under such a circumstance, some New Komeito members are expecting

realignment of the political world after the next Lower House

election. The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has also begun to make

eyes at the New Komeito, as seen from its start of considering the

possibility of submitting a bill to give the right to vote to

foreigners, which the New Komeito has long been calling for. One

junior member said: "If some DPJ and LDP members form a new party,

we will find it easier to join it."

One participant in the meeting yesterday said meaningfully: "Mr.

Fukuda is the LDP president. We as New Komeito members must make

efforts to steadily translate our policies into action. We are not

thinking at all about whether to approach to the LDP or the DPJ."

(7) Japan must rid itself of sense of dependence on the United

States

SANKEI (Page 13) (Abridged)

TOKYO 00002000 012 OF 013

July 18, 2008

By Kenichi Ito, president, Japan Forum on International Relations

Following North Korea's nuclear declaration to China, chair of the

six-party talks, President George W. Bush announced on June 26 that

the United States would delist the North as a state sponsor of

terrorism. The decision has triggered strong mistrust of the United

States among the Japanese people, who now feel that the abduction

issue has been left behind.

But to begin with, there was no guarantee that the United States

would give foremost consideration to Japan in making its decision.

Raising mistrust of the United States comes from Japan's excessive

dependence on that country and a lack of realism.

Japan must review its own mindset. Any country uses both carrots and

sticks in talks on diplomatic and military issues. Japan has been

leading an easy life as a pacifist nation by abandoning sticks and

war potential under the pretext of Article 9 of the Constitution and

by shifting its own responsibility to the United States.

(On June 10), a Taiwan fishing boat sank after colliding with a

Japan Coast Guard vessel during a chase in waters south of the

disputed Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands. Japan consequently apologized and

promised compensation, while a high-ranking Taiwan official said he

would not rule out war with Japan over the islets.

(On August 16, 2006), a Japanese fisherman was shot dead by the

Russian coastguard when his boat strayed into waters near the

disputed islands off Hokkaido. But Russia did not offer an apology

or compensation for it.

Is Japan's pacifism genuine?

The Japanese people have known all along that carrot-oriented

foreign and defense policies do not work, and that is why they have

expected the United States to use sticks on behalf of Japan. Japan

should not take the United States for granted just because it is its

ally. Further, Japan cannot expect the United States to take action

over the Senkakus and the northern territories.

Japan must grow into a normal country.

Is the pacifism of Japan which heavily relies on the United States

authentic? The truth is not only the United States but the whole

world is fed up with Japan's pacifism. It is about time the Japanese

people realized it.

The world's strategic environment has drastically changed in the

21st century. This is described in my book Shin Sensouron (On New

War) as the advent of a no-war era. It does not mean it will be a

peaceful era. Rather, it signifies an era of conflict instead of

war.

21st century no-war community

In the no-war era, mankind has to deal with new threats distinct

from those of the war era.

An international no-war community is being formed centering on

Western democracies based on the foundation distinct from the

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alliances and balance of power of the war era. The no-war community

is designed to jointly deal with such new threats as rogue states,

international terrorists, and failed states.

The Group of Eight sits at the center of it. The United States has

encouraged China to become a responsible stakeholder -- meaning to

join the no-war community. There is growing momentum in the world to

establish regional security forums.

The Foreign Affairs July/August issue carries U.S. Secretary of

State Condoleezza Rice's article spelling out her desire to develop

the six-party framework into a Northeast Asian Peace and Security

Mechanism. She apparently eyes linking it to the global no-war

community.

Ruled by enigmatic dictator Kim Jong Il, North Korea is a rogue

state, and its outrageous acts must be defined as crimes rather than

as war. The international community must continue guiding this rogue

state onto the right path by using both carrots and sticks. Will

Japan be able to play a proactive role in the process as an

international member? To the no-war community of the 21st century,

it is essential for Japan to be able to use not only carrots but

also sticks.

ZUMWALT