VZCZCXRO4141
PP RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHLO #1919/01 2051242
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 231242Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY LONDON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9264
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHSW/AMEMBASSY BERN 0570
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 0107
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1228
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LONDON 001919
SIPDIS
NOFORN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/23/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR SU UK
SUBJECT: SUDAN/CPA: AEC CHAIR ON ABYEI, MID-TERM REPORT,
AND COMMISSION'S FOCUS
REF: STATE 66284
Classified By: Political Counselor Richard Mills, reason 1.4 (b/d).
1. (C/NF) Summary. Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC) Chair Sir Derek Plumbly is cautiously optimistic about the
Abyei Roadmap and reiterated the need for the international community's support for pushing the NCP and SPLM ahead with
arbitration. He said Sudanese President Bashir was pleased with the AEC's mid-term evaluation report, and the current
momentum created by agreement on the Abyei Roadmap and the elections law may serve to help implementation of the
report's recommendations, albeit begrudgingly so and at the last minute per the parties' usual behavior. Sir Derek plans
to focus the Commission's work on supporting implementation of some of the reports key recommendations, while also
traveling to some of the potential flashpoint areas along the North-South boundary. He is also considering creation of
an informal advisory board for the AEC. Continued USG support of Sir Derek, both privately and publicly, will help
ensure HMG's long-term commitment to Sir Derek's chairmanship. End summary.
On Abyei --------
2. (C) U.S. S/E Williamson's talks with the SPLM and NCP in the wake of the Abyei crisis were a "good catalyst" and his
"departure" provided the necessary "shock to the system" to make the parties serious about finding a solution, according
to Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC) Chair Sir Derek Plumbly. Sir Derek told Poloff July 23 that the Abyei
Roadmap was an important "break through." He said the Abyei Roadmap's arbitration was different from the Comprehensive
Peace Agreement's (CPA) original Abyei Boundary Commission's report because it was going to be handled by lawyers rather
than historians and it would "be more difficult for the parties to refuse a second arbitrated agreement." By defining
the word "define" to mean "delimitation," the terms of reference were tilted slightly in the NCP's favor, but in a way
that the SPLM could live with.
3. (C/NF) On the hesitation of some countries (like Canada) to accept the Abyei Roadmap under the pretense that it was
not true to the letter of the CPA, Sir Derek said the agreement was in keeping with the "spirit of the CPA" and has the
potential to unlock the peace agreement's full implementation. While cautiously optimistic, he said it was important for
the U.S., UK, and others to support the Roadmap and the arbitration process. Sir Derek said the Norwegians had even
suggested that political negotiation in the margins of the arbitration would not necessarily be a bad thing, especially
since neither party has the ability to do "long-term thinking or strategy."
4. (C) The key, however, was appointment of the interim administration, especially the deputy. Sir Derek thought the NCP
would be willing to accept anyone as the head administrator, even Edward Lino (though the SPLM was unlikely to appoint
him), as long as they could appoint a Misseriya deputy of their choosing. Sir Derek said this was a contentious and
divisive issue within the SPLM. He was working with both sides to come up with practical solutions, such as changing the
deputy's title or playing with the interim administration's org-chart.
On the Mid-Term Evaluation --------------------------
5. (C) Describing his July 9 meeting with President Bashir to discuss the AEC's mid-term evaluation, Sir Derek said
Bashir had specifically liked the report's language about the NCP and SPLM's "partnership" and "progress." This setup
had made it easier for Bashir to accept the final recommendations in the report, which both sides had ultimately signed
up to implement. Sir Derek said Bashir had been slightly reluctant to publish the report, but had agreed to do so at
Sayed al-Khateeb's recommendation. He thought the SPLM's support during the JEM attacks on Omdurman had helped. Sir
Derek said the "packaging" of the report's release ceremony was very good, with representatives from the North and South
and elements of both cultures.
The AEC's Focus ---------------
LONDON 00001919 002 OF 002
6. (C) Turning to the AEC's post mid-term evaluation focus, Sir Derek said he was going to try and capitalize on the
momentum created by the agreement on the Abyei Roadmap and the elections law as well as the goodwill generated by the
SPLM's support to the GoS over the ICC's call for indictment of President Bashir. Saying the parties would continue to
"begrudgingly and at the last minute" implement the report's recommendations, Sir Derek said he planned to focus on a
couple of the recommendations where he thought the AEC could make a real impact, such as the elections and
wealth-sharing (with assistance from the USG and the Norwegians). He also plans to get out more and visit some of the
potential flashpoints, such as the Nuba Mountains and Southern Kordofan. He is also thinking about establishing an
informal advisory body to the AEC, comprised of academics and long-time Sudan watchers, to provide informal input and
creative thinking.
7. (SBU) Sir Derek also plans to sort out the AEC's staffing. He is particularly keen to get staff in Juba as soon as
possible and mentioned the possibility of a Swiss offer. He is traveling to Bern before returning to Sudan to discuss
options with the Swiss Government.
Comment -------
8. (C/NF) HMG is pleased with Sir Derek's performance as AEC Chair thus far, particularly his intervention in helping
bring the census back on track and delivering the mid-term evaluation report. HMG, however, does feel some consternation
over funding Sir Derek's close-protection team (per their security requirements) at nearly GBP one million (USD two
million) per year from a budget that is normally used for conflict prevention programs, not administrative overhead.
While there is no indication that HMG will stop supporting Sir Derek as AEC Chair, USG reminders of the importance of
Sir Derek's work, both publicly and privately, would help to quiet any internal critics. Visit London's Classified
Website: XXXXXXXXXXXX TUTTLE