VZCZCXRO5014
PP RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0741 1361042
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 151042Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0824
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA
UNCLAS KHARTOUM 000741
DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, AF SE WILLIAMSON
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: SPLM PROPOSES FM ALOR VISIT PARIS TO DISCUSS JEM/CHAD, SPLA
MAY SEND TROOPS TO KHARTOUM
1. (SBU) GNU Foreign Minister Deng Alor told poloffs in Juba May 14
that President Bashir may send him to Paris possibly as soon as next
week to discuss Chad and its support for JEM with the French. Alor
asked poloffs to "pass this information to your people in Khartoum
and Washington." FM Alor plans to return to Khartoum during the May
16 pause in the SPLM National Convention to discuss details with
President Bashir. Alor said the initiative derived from discussions
between the NISS Chief Salah Ghosh and his Southerner Deputy Majok
following a meeting between Bashir, Presidential Advisor Nafie Ali
Nafie, Defense Minister Hussein, and Ghosh, in which the NCP
leadership had reportedly determined to "take the battle to Chad."
According to Alor, during Ghosh's post-meeting readout NISS Deputy
Majok counseled against such a direct course of action, citing
repeat invitations from Paris to the SPLM Foreign Minister, and
suggested a joint Sudanese/French effort to pressure Chad. Ghosh
reportedly has endorsed the suggestion and plans to propose it to
President Bashir, according to Deng.
2. (SBU) The plan would be for Alor to meet with his French
counterpart to see what pressure the French are willing to put on
Chad to negotiate with the Chadian rebels and to cut off their
support to JEM. Alor said that the Sudanese are aware that if the
Chadian rebels attack Ndjamena again, they likely will encounter
French troops and/or the French Air Force. Alor said he believes
Khartoum does actually prefer to negotiate rather than have another
round of fighting. However, he noted ominously that the Chadian
rebels are prepared to fight again, according to what he has heard
from NISS Deputy Majok.
3. (SBU) Alor said that the SPLA may send 5000 troops to reinforce
the SAF in Khartoum and other locations in the North, although
President Bashir was currently reconsidering his May 11 request for
SPLA support. (NOTE: Although Kiir initially refused SPLA or
SPLA/JIU assistance, he agreed to Bashir's later request of 3,000
troops, and offered unsolicited an additional 2,000. End note.)
President Bashir was extremely impressed that First Vice President
Kiir and FM Alor traveled to Khartoum despite the insecurity in the
capital, according to Alor. "You risked your lives to come here,"
President Bashir reportedly said appreciatively. President Kiir
will likely send the troops in the interest of supporting the
national defense, said Alor, but he wryly noted that the situation
must be extremely bad in the North if President Bashir cannot trust
his own military and prefers southern soldiers. Alor noted that
many in the SAF are from Darfur and Kordofan, and therefore cannot
be trusted to fight against the Darfur rebels. These SPLA plans may
change because of events in Abyei.
4. (SBU) Comment: Alor was obviously hoping for US support of the
proposal for his own intervention with the French. If Khartoum acts
on the SPLM's proposal for FM Alor to visit his counterpart in
Paris, France could take advantage of this opportunity to press the
GNU to stop funding Chadian rebels, and offer to engage with Chad
regarding JEM in return. Rejecting such a visit by the GNU Foreign
Minister would be a missed opportunity for Paris to engage on the
Darfur/Chad portfolio, if the visit actually moves forward.
Moreover, the visit would enhance the profile and prestige of the
SPLM-member ForU{wQpnrom Khalil Ibrahim, their
NIF nemesis, but in Sudan the needs of the moment often make for
strange bedfellows. President Bashir reportedly has not made a
final determination.
FERNANDEZ