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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASMARA 000249
SIPDIS
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/06/2018
TAGS: PREL ER SO DJ
SUBJECT: ARS READY TO TALK
ASMARA 00000249 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen for reason 1.4 (d)
1. (C) SUMMARY: The leadership of the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) is committed to UN-brokered
discussions with representatives of the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) scheduled to commence May 10 in
Djibouti. Their willingness to enter into these talks should not be misconstrued as ARS interest in "joining the TFG,"
ARS leaders emphasized. They also claim this is a risk they are taking for peace in Somalia, and could cost them the
goodwill of their "hosts" (i.e., Eritrea) and could precipitate a split within the ARS. The ARS leaders strongly
requested "U.S. political and moral support." End Summary.
2. (C) OFF TO DJIBOUTI - FOR GOOD?
-----------------------------------
Three senior ARS leaders met with the ambassador and poloff May 6 to discuss the Djibouti talks. The decision to
participate in the UN-facilitated discussion is not universally popular within the ranks of the ARS, although most of
the senior leaders in the Executive and Central Committees support participation. The ARS leaders reported that Eritrea
is opposed to the talks and fears the ARS "is going out of their hand." They said Eritrea's pique with Djibouti for
hosting the talks is reflected in the ongoing border tension. Participating in the Djibouti talks "is going to cost us"
they acknowledged, specifying that it could jeopardize ARS unity and Eritrean support. One ARS interlocutor implied he
and others may not be returning to Asmara.
3. (C) THREE-STAGE TALKS, BUT WITH WHOM? -----------------------------------------
The ARS will have a seven-person delegation at the talks, with Abdirahman Abdi the designated "team leader." (See bio
note below.) Other ARS leaders would be in Djibouti but not part of the delegation. The first two rounds of talks will
take place in Djibouti, the ARS leaders said, with the third planned for Saudi Arabia, where the ARS and TFG would sign
a "Final Agreement" if warranted. They were uncertain who would represent the TFG. The ARS leaders had a positive view
of Prime Minister Hussein and voiced suspicions about President Yusuf. They said the composition of the TFG team would
be a good indication of whether the TFG was sincere or not.
4. (SBU) WANTED: STRIPED SHIRT WITH BLUE HELMET --------------------------------------------- ----
The ambassador noted that Ethiopia wanted to withdraw from Somalia, a goal shared by the ARS. How best to establish
conditions to enable that to happen? The ARS leaders quickly answered, "The Ethiopians should withdraw and be replaced
by a UN peacekeeping mission." They argued that there is insufficient trust between the ARS and TFG to permit them to
jointly administer Somalia without some "neutral referee." The United Nations is their pick to play this role.
5. (C) "WORST EVER" CONDITIONS ON THE GROUND ---------------------------------------------
The ARS leaders said violence and chaos in Somalia was at the worst level in 17 years. They said that average Somalis
focus their frustration and anger on the Ethiopian troops and were not particularly concerned about differentiating
between what groups were opposing "the Ethiopian occupiers." They acknowledged that ARS militiamen were active. While
the ARS leadership recognized the need to discuss peace and stability with the TFG, the man and woman in the street just
wanted an end to the violence and the Ethiopians out, they claimed.
6. (C) THE ARS AND AL-SHABAAB
------------------------------
Al-Shabaab's social, religious, and political ideology is not popular with Somalis, the ARS leaders stated, but
Al-Shabaab has gained support for its forceful opposition to Ethiopian ASMARA 00000249 002.2 OF 002 troops.
Interestingly, one of our ARS interlocutors commented, "We have looked into this carefully and don't think Al-Shabaab
leaders currently have links with Al-Qaida, but they would like to." When asked to characterize relations between the
ARS and Al-Shabaab, our interlocutors answered, "They announced they are going to massacre us." The ARS leaders said the
best way to eliminate Al-Shabaab or any extremists is not through military action, but by "turning society against
them," which the ARS claimed it would do when in a position of authority. They added that while in Djibouti the
Government of Djibouti would be providing for their security.
7. (C) FRIENDS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
-----------------------------------
The ARS leaders affirmed that Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Yemen have been supportive. Libya "is hard to read," they
mused. While Eritrea's efforts to maintain its influence with the ARS have been heavy-handed, the ARS confided that
pressure from the GSE lessened a bit after Isaias' recent discussions with King Abdullah in Riyadh.
8. (C) USG POLITICAL AND MORAL SUPPORT SOUGHT --------------------------------------------- -
The ARS leaders feel that by participating in the Djibouti talks they are going out on a limb to promote peace and
stability in Somalia; they fear that hard-liners in both camps could torpedo the discussions and leave the ARS
politically isolated. They are somewhat dismayed by the lack of U.S. support. When asked what sort of support they had
in mind, the ARS response was "political and moral." They also voiced concerns about a split within the ARS if the talks
were to fail, a situation that would see hard-liners on the ascent, they cautioned.
9. (C) BIO NOTE ON ABDIRAHMAN ABDI
-----------------------------------
Reportedly tagged as the ARS "team leader" in the Djibouti talks, Abdirahman Abdi is tall, broad, relatively young, and
well-spoken. He has studied in Malaysia and resided for a number of years in the UK, where he served as the sexton or
administrator of a mosque that suffered a takeover attempt by a radical Islamist. His official position in the ARS is
First Deputy Chairman of the Central Committee. Fluent in English, he was focused and cordial in his discussions with
Emboffs. Upon departure he said he would appreciate a point of contact at the American Embassy in Djibouti. MCMULLEN 0
05/07/2008 6368 PREL,ER,SO,DJ The leadership of the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) is committed to
UN-brokered discussions with representatives of the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) scheduled to commence
May 10 in Djibouti. Their willingness to enter into these talks should not be misconstrued as ARS interest in "joining
the TFG," ARS leaders emphasized. They also claim this is a risk they are taking for peace in Somalia, and could cost
them the goodwill of their "hosts" (i.e., Eritrea) and could precipitate a split within the ARS. The ARS leaders
strongly requested "U.S. political and moral support."