VZCZCXRO9154
PP RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHROV
DE RUEHLO #0347 0351757
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 041757Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY LONDON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7260
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 0998
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 0726
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHBL/AMCONSUL BELFAST 0946
RUEHED/AMCONSUL EDINBURGH 0857
UNCLAS LONDON 000347
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE, SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EFIN ETRD UK EINV
SUBJECT: UK BUSINESS RESERVEDLY OPTIMISTIC ON DOHA
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: UK international business figure Gary Campkin
(PROTECT) is "reservedly optimistic" that the WTO Doha negotiations
can be concluded this year. He says that the current global economic
and political situation has created a climate giving impetus to
reaching an agreement; it will be harder to do so next year.
Campkin, who was part of the Confederation of British Industry's
(CBI) delegation to accompany PM Brown to India and China, said he
believes India may not push for an agreement, but would not block
one if it got what it needed on special products. PM Brown raised
the topic in China, but Chinese officials did not characterize it as
a priority. CBI is concerned that services are not receiving
sufficient attention in the negotiations. Campkin said that should
there not be an agreement in the next several months, WTO DG Lamy
should consider presenting his own draft. END SUMMARY
2. (SBU) Gary Campkin, head of international affairs at CBI, gave us
a read out on February 1, 2008 of PM Brown's recent trip to China
and India in which he was accompanied by a CBI delegation. (Septel
will follow) Campkin believes that conditions are currently
favorable for an agreement, but they may not remain so. He suggests
that the global economic uncertainty can be used as a pretext for
moving forward with the agreement. Coming to agreement on Doha would
send a strong signal of international cooperation. In addition, he
thinks that the current high agricultural prices create a favorable
environment for reducing agricultural subsidies and tariffs.
3. (SBU) According to Campkin, the Doha negotiations came up in
discussions during the Prime Minister's trip to India and China.
Campkin believes that India will not block the Doha round as long as
they receive something on special products. However, he thinks that
India is not likely to push an agreement either. The political
climate in India is such that all government initiatives are viewed
through the prism of poverty reduction. He says that PM Brown raised
Doha in China as well, but Chinese officials made no specific
comments on the negotiations and did not characterize them as a
priority.
4. (SBU) Campkin remains concerned that services negotiations are
still lagging behind those for agriculture and non-agriculture
market access (NAMA). More attention is needed by negotiators to
push these forward.
5. (SBU) Campkin said that the next few months would be crucial with
draft texts on agriculture and NAMA expected and the possibility of
a ministers meeting around Easter. He said CBI is coming to the view
that if an agreement is not reached in the next few months, WTO DG
Lamy should consider putting forth his own draft text. It may then
be the time for Lamy to exercise prerogative. Campkin continued that
if there is no agreement this year, it will become increasingly
difficult to do so next year and beyond. Changes in administration
in the U.S., elections in India, and changes in the European
Commission in 2009 mean any momentum built up will slacken as new
teams take over and assess the state of negotiations.
TUTTLE