Cablegate: Daily Summary of Japanese Press 11/15/07

VZCZCXRO6762

PP RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH

DE RUEHKO #5244/01 3190810

ZNR UUUUU ZZH

P 150810Z NOV 07

FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO

TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9561

INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY

RHEHAAA/THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

RUEAWJA/USDOJ WASHDC PRIORITY

RULSDMK/USDOT WASHDC PRIORITY

RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY

RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY

RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5//

RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI

RHHMHBA/COMPACFLT PEARL HARBOR HI

RHMFIUU/HQ PACAF HICKAM AFB HI//CC/PA//

RHMFIUU/USFJ //J5/JO21//

RUYNAAC/COMNAVFORJAPAN YOKOSUKA JA

RUAYJAA/CTF 72

RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 6824

RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA 4419

RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE 8086

RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA 3219

RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO 5089

RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0143

RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 6196

RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 6968

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 13 TOKYO 005244

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA;

WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION;

TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE;

SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN,

DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA

FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR;

CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA.

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA

SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 11/15/07

Index:

(1) Nuclear threat: Will nuclear proliferation be prevented? Prime

Minister Fukuda to face test over US diplomacy (Yomiuri)

(2) Editorial: Prime Minister Fukuda must face precariousness of

Japan-US alliance (Sankei)

(3) Time to consider durability of Japan-US alliance (Nikkei)

(4) Asia and Japan-US alliance (part 1-a): Fukuda diplomacy gets

underway; simultaneous settlement of nuclear, abduction issues to be

explored (Mainichi)

(5) Editorial: Fukuda's US visit and North Korea issue (Asahi)

(6) Poll on Fukuda cabinet, political parties, MSDF refueling

mission (Sankei)

(7) Prime Minister's schedule, November 14 (Nikkei)

(8) TOP HEADLINES

(9) EDITORIALS 11

ARTICLES:

(1) Nuclear threat: Will nuclear proliferation be prevented? Prime

Minister Fukuda to face test over US diplomacy

YOMIURI (Page 1) (Slightly abridged)

November 14, 2007

In a dinner party held at the US Deputy Chief of Mission's Official

Residence in Roppongi, Tokyo, on the night of Oct. 31, the friendly

atmosphere suddenly changed into a strained mood when United States

Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Alexander Arvizu said: "The US

will remove (North Korea) from its terrorist-sponsor list if that

nation has refrained from committing terrorist acts, like the KAL

downing incident, over the past six months. The abduction issue will

not be taken into account." Eight members of a parliamentary group

dealing with the abduction issue were also participating in the

party, including former Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry

Takeo Hiranuma and former LDP Policy Research Council Chairman

Shoichi Nakagawa.

The US government arranged the dinner party, with the aim of

listening to views about the denuclearization of the Korean

Peninsula. The suprapartisan group - chaired by Hiranuma - takes a

hard-line stance on North Korea. Former Prime Minister Abe was a

leading member of the group.

Group members interpreted that the US, by holding the party, aimed

to have participants understand its delisting plan. If the US

decides to delist the North, Japan might take it as representing the

collapse of the framework of Japan-US cooperation.

Under former Prime Minister Abe, Japan and the US failed to take

joint steps in dealing with North Korea. Abe left a severe

environment to Prime Minister Fukuda.

Following North Korea's promise to disable its nuclear facilities

TOKYO 00005244 002 OF 013

this year, the Bush administration, in its last days, is about to

give favors to the North even without any progress on the abduction

issue. Although there is no time to waste, the prime minister has

yet to come up with definite guidelines to deal with the change in

Washington's attitude.

To be sure, the prime minister is emphasizing a policy of dialogue

with North Korea in an attempt to break the impasse in bilateral

relations. In his policy speech, Fukuda did not use the word

"pressure." Early this month, he instructed his aides to take some

measures to move talks with North Korea forward.

There is a delicate change in the environment surrounding the

General Federation of Korean Residents (Chosen Soren) in Japan. A

source familiar with this group said: "Under the former Abe

administration, groups affiliated with Chosen Soren across the

nation were prosecuted almost every month under the guise of strict

law enforcement, but such pressure has been removed recently."

Chosen Soren used to be one of the main secret routes of contact

between Japan and North Korea. An aide to the prime minister said,

"An increasing number of routes of contact between the two countries

have been established than there were under the Abe

administration."

North Korea is greatly interested in the planned Japan-US summit in

Washington on Nov. 16. According to a source familiar with

Japan-North Korea relations, Pyongyang will keep close watch on what

approach Fukuda, who has kept a low profile in various quarters in

the nation and overseas, will take to the US, which is increasingly

eager to reconcile with Pyongyang.

A senior Foreign Ministry official commented: "All the more because

North Korea will keep close watch on the summit, the prime minister

must reiterate to President Bush his opposition to the US delisting

North Korea."

Japan had a bitter experience, and a member of the abduction

parliamentary group said, "We don't want to have the same experience

again."

In the closing days of the former Clinton administration, the US

moved in a hasty way to reconcile with North Korea. In response,

Japan poured a total of 500 million dollars (about 60 billion yen)

into a project to construct light water reactors in North Korea and

also offered more than 1.3 million tons of rice in aid to that

country. But North Korea did not scrap its missile development

program. In October last year, Pyongyang conducted a nuclear test,

worsening the security environment for Japan.

Japan's position conflicts with the policy of reconciliation between

the US and North Korea on some points. Prime Minister Fukuda, while

pushing ahead with the policy of dialogue, should make resolute

assertions.

(2) Editorial: Prime Minister Fukuda must face precariousness of

Japan-US alliance

SANKEI (Page 2) (Full)

November 14, 2007

Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda will visit the United States for the

TOKYO 00005244 003 OF 013

first time since he took office and hold his first summit on Nov. 16

with US President George W. Bush. Under the Koizumi and Abe

governments, it was said that the Japan-US alliance was the best

ever. During the past several months, however, the political climate

surrounding the bilateral alliance has drastically changed.

The Maritime Self-Defense Force's refueling operation in the Indian

Ocean has been suspended. No progress has been made on the

government's plan to relocate the US Marine Corps' Futenma Air

Station, which is the centerpiece of the realignment of US based in

Japan. There still remain issues such as Japan's plan to reduce its

financial burden for the costs for the US forces stationed in Japan,

as well as US beef imports. The growing expectation is that the US

government will delist North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism,

probably before the end of the year.

With the Diet divided, the United States has found it difficult to

understand Japanese politics. The Bush administration might have

seen the "grand coalition" turmoil that was caused by Fukuda and

Ichiro Ozawa, president of the main opposition Democratic Party of

Japan (DPJ or Minshuto), as a murky move that made the US question

whether Japan attached importance to the bilateral alliance or

placed the United Nations above all else.

Fukuda's choosing the US for his first official overseas trip is a

good option. Even if there were no pending issue between two

countries, constant efforts and mutual understanding are

indispensable to maintain the alliance, but there remain many

pending issues between the two countries. Chief Cabinet Secretary

Nobutaka Machimura said: "The prime minister will confirm the ties

of the Japan-US alliance" at the upcoming summit. What Machimura

said is only natural, but the planned summit require more than the

reconfirmation of solid ties. We view the summit as extremely

important.

In particular, whether the US government will remove the North from

its list of terrorism-sponsoring states is a significant issue that

connects directly with the sentiments of Japanese people wishing for

a resolution of the abduction issue. Fukuda needs to obtain a

promise from the US government that Washington will not sacrifice

the Japan-US alliance in an attempt to resolve the nuclear issue and

improve relations with North Korea.

It is certain that Bush wants Japan to rejoin the war on terror by

resuming the MSDF refueling mission in the Indian Ocean and to give

momentum to USFJ realignment. In order to break the deadlock on the

two difficult issues and to promote them, it is absolutely necessary

for the two top leaders to discuss the issues in good faith.

Ahead of Fukuda's US trip, the French president and German

chancellor visited Washington one after another to reconfirm the

close ties of their alliances with the US. In order also to aim at

multilayered development of relations between Japan and the US,

between the US and Europe, and Japan and Europe, Japan should state

clearly the significance and value of the Japan-US alliance. We want

the prime minister to carry out a fruitful meeting, keeping in mind

that the Japan-US alliance is in danger.

(3) Time to consider durability of Japan-US alliance

NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full)

November 11, 2007

TOKYO 00005244 004 OF 013

By Hiroyuki Akita, member of editorial board

How long will the alliances the US has so far established last? The

US government reportedly is restudying and calculating the

durability of the alliance relationships it has established since

the end of the Cold War.

The US distinguishes allies with which it expects to work together

over the long run from other allies. The US intends to use more

resources for cooperation with such allies and to gradually distance

itself from the others. The US has used up its energy in the Iraq

war and the war against terrorism. Under such a situation, the US

seems willing to accelerate the restructuring of its allies.

According to the head of a US think-tank well-versed in the matter,

the US regards Britain and Australia, which joined the Iraq and

Afghanistan war, as lasting allies. In contrast, there is a view

that the alliance relationship between the US and South Korea, which

has been strained over strategy toward North Korea, could be

short-lived. This prediction might be behind the US decision to trim

its military forces in South Korea.

The think-dank president said: "Japan is one of the most trustworthy

allies." But the situation does not warrant optimism.

A Liberal Democratic Party lawmaker representing national defense

interests said that his impression was reinforced through contacts

with senior US Defense Department officers that "the US military

might assume that (Japan) may try to restrict US military aircraft

from taking off from bases in Japan."

The US military plans to move about 8,000 Marines from Okinawa to

Guam. As the major reason for this plan, the US has cited its

consideration for Okinawa. But the LDP lawmaker said: "Behind the US

plan to transfer Marines to Guam, there seems to be the judgment

that it may be difficult for the US military to take smooth action

in Japan."

The US government has hailed the strength of the Japan-US alliance,

but some members express concern, wondering how long Japan will

continue to welcome the presence of US forces.

Some point out that the more precise Chinese missiles become, the

more vulnerable US forces in Japan become.

In working out policy toward Asia, the US fears most a scenario in

which a conflict breaks out between China and Taiwan, driving the US

and Chinese militaries into a confrontation across the Taiwan

Strait. It is fully conceivable that relations between China and

Taiwan will become strained after Taiwan's presidential election

next March, because Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian has strong

aspirations for independence from China.

If the US and China engage in hostilities, Japan will become the

strategic forefront base of the US military. A senior US military

official said: "US forces in Japan might come under attack by the

Chinese military."

According to Japanese officials, the US government and the US

military have begun to harbor this kind of concern: At such a time,

will the Japanese public support US forces flying missions out of

TOKYO 00005244 005 OF 013

Japan? Growing anti-American sentiment in Japan in that event could

lead to restrictions on moves by US forces in Japan.

There are an increasing number of cases across the world in which an

ally of the US invokes vetoes action by the US military as their

friendship established during the Cold War has weakened. In the Iraq

war, Turkey and Saudi Arabia refused the US military's use of their

military bases.

The government has been pressed to suspend the Maritime Self-Defense

Force's refueling mission in the Indian Ocean. The US might take the

suspension as not a result of a change in the dynamics of Nagata-cho

(Japan's political center) but signs of a shortening of the

durability period of the Japan-US alliance.

The Japan-US security arrangement has been somewhat taken for

granted, like air. If Japan intends to maintain the arrangement, it

should be fully aware that the alliance will not be effective

forever and must make efforts to extend its life span.

(4) Asia and Japan-US alliance (part 1-a): Fukuda diplomacy gets

underway; simultaneous settlement of nuclear, abduction issues to be

explored

MAINICHI (Page 1) (Full)

November 14, 2007

Administrative Vice Foreign Minister Shotaro Yachi, who visited the

US in order to pave the way for Prime Minister Fukuda's upcoming US

visit, met with Deputy Secretary of State Negroponte in an office in

the US State Department in Washington on October 25. Kenichiro

Sasae, director general of the Asian and Oceanean Affairs Bureau,

was also present.

Their discussions focused not on the issue of continuing the

refueling operations by the Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) in

the Indian Ocean but on the issue of removing North Korea from the

US list of state sponsors of terrorism.

Yachi asked the US side to give consideration to the abduction

issue, saying, "Full conditions for removing North Korea from the

list have yet to be met. We want the US to consider bringing

progress on the abduction issue. Otherwise, hardliners in Japan

(toward North Korea) will not be calmed down."

The US government had at first announced its intention to remove the

DPRK from its list of state sponsors of terrorism in late December.

Assistant Secretary of State Hill said that the USG would notify the

Congress of the matter 45 days before, which would in effect mean

that the nation was removed from the list. There was even a

possibility of a countdown for delisting starting on Nov. 11. One

senior MOFA official said that if such a notification were sent

during the prime minister's visit to the US, it would be tantamount

to political suicide for him.

However, Negroponte's response was cold. He said, "I understand your

concern, but we cannot include the abduction issue among conditions

for removing the DPRK from the list."

Yachi visited Assistant to the President and Deputy National

Security Advisor James F. Jeffrey, Senior Director for Asia Denis

Wilder and Vice President Cheney's national security advisor Hannah

TOKYO 00005244 006 OF 013

and tried to persuade them to put off the planned delisting of the

DPRK. The same Foreign Ministry official said, "We were able to

obtain the US commitment to withholding the sending of a

notification to the Congress during the prime minister's visit. The

prime minister will be able to keep face."

However, that also meant that removing the DPRK from the list is an

established policy and implementation of that policy is imminent.

Presumably in order to notify related countries, Hill visited

Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo starting on October 10 and underscored that

sending a notification will be a de facto removal of that nation

from the list.

On October 26, the day following the Yachi-Negroponte talks, Fukuda

met with Shigeru Yokota, representative of the Association of the

Families of Victims Kidnapped by North Korea, and others at the

Prime Minister's Official Residence and said, "Abductees simply

returning home is a major humanitarian issue. However, I want to

repair relations with the DPRK, if possible. Now is the best

opportunity for talks with that nation." The trend for North Korea

disabling its nuclear facilities has been set with the initiative of

the US, as can be seen in an agreement between the US and North

Korea in Berlin in January and an agreement on the initial

denuclearization steps at the six party talks held in Beijing in

February. The observation was widespread that the former Abe

administration, which gave top priority to the abduction issue, was

in a fix with the US decision to eliminate the DPRK from the list.

However, Fukuda is trying to use the US approach to North Korea as

an opportunity.

Explaining Prime Minister Fukuda's determination, the same Foreign

Ministry official said, "The elimination of the DPRK from the list

is no major problem. If the disablement of North Korea's nuclear

facilities really makes progress, we will simultaneously settle the

abduction issue. It would mean Japan making the kind of major

decision that only comes along once every 20 years."

Fukuda diplomacy will get underway with his summit with President

Bush on Nov. 16. He will aim for harmony between Asia diplomacy and

the Japan-US alliance. Mainichi Shimbun will explore challenges to

and visions of Fukuda diplomacy through the North Korea issue and

the overseas dispatch of Self-Defense Forces.

(5) Editorial: Fukuda's US visit and North Korea issue

ASAHI (Page 3) (Full)

November 15, 2007

Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda kicks off his first official foreign

visit today. He is scheduled to meet with President George W. Bush

in Washington and to attend the ASEAN Plus Three -- Japan, China,

and South Korea -- summit in Singapore next week.

Fukuda diplomacy has an advantage over his predecessor. He is free

from tough issues closely associated with historical views, such as

the question of visiting Yasukuni Shrine and the wartime comfort

women issue. Historical issues caused Asian nations to evince

distrust in Japan and prompted the US House to adopt a resolution

condemning Japan.

Such issues will no longer haunt Fukuda's trip. It has been a long

time since Japanese diplomacy had an unfettered response

TOKYO 00005244 007 OF 013

capability.

Fukuda chose the United States as the destination of his first

foreign trip, which is understandable. He apparently plans to give

Washington the impression that he is going to cooperate with the

United States as the new prime minister who identifies the Japan-US

alliance as the bedrock of Japan's diplomacy by making a clear

distinction with his predecessor Abe's hawkish policy course. His

intention carries significance.

We would like to see him discuss the question of North Korea first

of all.

In recent months, the United States has actively held talks with

North Korea for resolving the nuclear issue. If the nuclear threat

were to be removed, Japan would benefit from it significantly. The

prime minister must explicitly indicate that Japan will support the

United States' efforts. There are concerns in Japan that the

abduction issue might be left behind.

Reportedly the United States will delist North Korea as a state

sponsor of terrorism possibly by the end of the year. Some observers

think that the prime minister must raise a red flag to the US

president.

We must not forget, however, that if US-DRPK relations are improved

and nuclear abandonment becomes a real possibility, that would

favorably affect Japan-DPRK relations as well.

In return for nuclear abandonment, the North is expecting normalized

diplomatic ties with and economic assistance from Japan. The

abduction issue must be resolved first, however.

It is vital for the United States to share this view with Japan.

(The United States) must not pursue a swift agreement with the North

at the cost of the scope of nuclear facilities subject to

disablement and abandonment.

The two leaders should frankly discuss how the negotiations should

proceed.

The prime minister has some other tough issues, such as the

suspended refueling operation of the Maritime Self-Defense Force in

the Indian Ocean and Japan's proposal to reduce its host-nation

support for US Forces Japan. Nevertheless, they should not rock the

foundation of the Japan-US alliance.

It is more important for Japan and the United States to crosscheck

their diplomatic strategies in order to find ways to bring stability

to the situation in East Asia. What are the priority policy issues

and what role should each leader play? Keeping good communication at

the top level is essential in order to come up with answers to those

questions. Perceptions toward China are also a vital theme.

We would like to see the prime minister move on to act two, Japan's

policy toward Asia, armed with those results. Fukuda is scheduled to

hold his first meetings with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and South

Korea President Roh Moo Hyun, as well as a trilateral summit with

them.

Stable Japan-US relations would help enhance Japan's diplomacy

toward Asia, which would in turn give Japan strength in facing the

TOKYO 00005244 008 OF 013

United States. We would like to see the prime minister draw such a

diplomatic strategy through this trip.

(6) Poll on Fukuda cabinet, political parties, MSDF refueling

mission

SANKEI (Page 5) (Abridged)

November 13, 2007

Questions & Answers

(Figures shown in percentage, rounded off.)

Q: Do you support the Fukuda cabinet?

Yes 41.1 (55.3)

No 40.3 (28.7)

Don't know (D/K) + Can't say which (CSW) 18.6 (16.0)

Q: Which political party do you support?

Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 32.2 (33.9)

Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 26.5 (28.1)

New Komeito (NK) 3.6 (4.4)

Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 3.1 (3.4)

Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 2.6 (2.0)

People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0.7 (0.2)

New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 0.1 (0.2)