VZCZCXYZ0004
OO RUEHWEB
DE RUEHBU #2091/01 2962128
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 232128Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9538
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT
UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 002091
SIPDIS
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC,
WHA/EPSC
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION; TURKS AND KURDS; IMF GENERAL ASSEMBLY;
10/23/07
1. SUMMARY STATEMENT
Major international stories today include implications of Turkey's
plan in Northern Iraq and its parallel with Israel's formula in
Lebanon; and the outcome of the IMF General Assembly with an alleged
IMF crisis.
2. OPINION PIECES AND EDITORIALS
- "A Lebanese-styled solution in a hot area"
Oscar Ral Cardoso, international analyst of leading "Clarn,"
opines (10/23) "A 'Lebanese' solution to the escalated war between
Iraq's Kurdish provinces and Turkey seems to be on the horizon. It
does not seem to be the best of ideas, although the first step would
be a 'ceasefire', which is about to be made public through US
political cooperation.
"Let's see what this formula could bring about. The overall feeling
is that the combatant Kurdish faction (the PKK) and the Turkish army
will not be able to maintain the ceasefire for too long.
"The point is that the Ankara government's real objective seems to
be to advance on the Iraqi-Kurdish territory and establish an 'area
of containment' that will be occupied by its Army in the same way
Israel has occupied Lebanon since 1982.
"During the following 22 years, the Israeli military usurped the
sovereignty of Southern Lebanon without really improving security.
"... These conditions could be reproduced in a magnified way in the
current Iraqi-Kurdish scenario. It will take place in a country,
Iraq, that seems to be on the verge of dissolution, with an
incipient civil war affected by the converging geo-strategic
interests of Iran, Syria, Turkey and of course the Iraqis that have
been co-opted by the US military occupation.
"A clear sign of the importance of this conflict is the immediate
impact triggered by the PKK's recent attack against Turkish forces
on already high international oil prices.
"Actions now could not only involve oil pipelines from the region
but also from the Caspian Sea.
"The Turkish government plans to encourage the confrontation between
the two main Kurdish factions..., while the Turkish Army is devoted
to annihilating the most aggressive PKK in the future 'mattress
area.'
"This would remarkably alleviate pressure from the Kurds, who claim
their rights to part of the Turkish national territory...
"Nonetheless, whatever is functional to Turkey may at the same time
worsen the ongoing regional disaster uncorked by the 2003 invasion
of Iraq."
- "The IMF will have to test its own prescription - it will have to
adjust expenditures"
Martin Kanenguiser, on special assignment in Washington DC for
daily-of-record "La Nacisn," comments (10/23) "If the IMF ever had a
friend or defender, the Annual Assembly that ended yesterday
demonstrated that no one is left and that claims from Argentina,
among other countries, about IMF lack of legitimacy and
representation will present the need to 'reinvent itself' in order
to survive in a world that is increasingly unwilling to hold
multilateral talks. The IMF crisis was so patent that US Treasury
Secretary Henry Paulson himself asked the IMF to adjust its
SIPDIS
expenditures to again obtain a balanced budget, exactly the same
claim the IMF staff constantly asks from developing countries.
"Lula also said that the IMF and the WB 'are only focused on wealthy
nations' and yesterday Chinese Finance VM Li Yong said that
'developing countries should no longer be excluded from the main
decisions or have little representation' at multilateral lending
agencies, 'and he also complained about the G7's tough treatment of
his country's exchange policy.
"Argentina made its own claim, less aggressive in rhetorical terms
that those of President Nstor Kirchner but not less ironic. Economy
Minister Miguel Peirano pointed out in many speeches that the IMF
does little monitoring of developed countries, in which the current
international liquidity crisis was created, and that 'the IMF runs a
big risk of becoming irrelevant.'
"... The IMF monitoring system seems to be plagued with criticism.
In the wealthy countries' view, the IMF is too complacent with
emerging nations. In the view of the latter, there is no chance that
the IMF's wealthiest members, the US and the EU, would agree to be
monitored by a multilateral lending agency...
"... The left wing hates the IMF and the conservative right wing
wanted to eliminate the IMF. The IMF should be rapidly overhauled
before it loses all importance, and, in the view of many analysts,
the Argentine case could mark the beginning of its recovery, or not,
in the same way it marked the beginning of its failure in late
2001."
- "Argentina amid a ferocious IMF internal dispute"
Jorge Luis Velsquez, on special assignment to Washington DC for
leading "Clarn," writes (10/23) "The visit of (Economy) Minister
Miguel Peirano's attendance at the IMF Assembly in Washington left
at lest two certainties. One seems encouraging for Argentina and the
other, of concern.
"The first one is related to the degree of consensus Argentine
negotiators managed to obtain, which until short ago only raised
criticism - all G-24 countries supported its questionings over the
IMF current role, which led Kirchner to decide to pay off the
country's debt in cash in order to get rid of the IMF.
"The consensus also approached Argentina's position to that of
Mexico and Brazil, which will strengthen regional integration and
long-standing initiatives such as Mercosur or Banco del Sur. We
should also bear in mind a still light rapprochement with the US
Treasury Department, which was conveyed through some special remarks
from Secretary Henry Paulson towards Argentine authorities. There
was a subtle although perceptible wink - congratulating Argentina
for having supported a US initiative to condone an
800-million-dollar debt Liberia owed to the IMF.
"The concern is over the IMF internal dispute sparked by Rodrigo
Rato's departure from the IMF and his replacement by French
Dominique Strauss Kahn. In this arm-wrestling the Argentine case is
the spoil of war between confronted sides...
"... Under these circumstances, (IMF) criticism of Argentina was
interpreted as a defensive reaction from local bureaucracy. It would
reportedly seek to survive by underscoring the failings of the
Argentine economy, and, in this way, they would mark a difference
with Strauss Kahn's conciliatory posture towards Nstor Kirchner."
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our
classified website at:
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires
WAYNE