VZCZCXYZ0017
OO RUEHWEB
DE RUEHBU #2053/01 2900826
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 170826Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9491
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT
UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 002053
SIPDIS
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC,
WHA/EPSC
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION; AL GORE; CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY CONGRESS;
ARGENTINA AT THE IMF ANNUAL ASSEMBLY; THE DEAL BETWEEN THE TWO
KOREAS; 10/16/07
1. SUMMARY STATEMENT
Weekend international stories include the impact of the Nobel Peace
Award granted to former US VP Al Gore on the race for US presidency;
the Chinese Communist Party Congress; Argentina seeking political
support at the IMF Annual Assembly; and implications of the deal
reached between the two Koreas.
2. OPINION PIECES AND EDITORIALS
- "Now, clamor for another presidential bid"
Alberto Armendriz, daily-of-record "La Nacisn's" New York-based
correspondent, writes (10/13) "Amid an agitated presidential
campaign in the US, the Nobel Peace Prize, which was granted
yesterday to former US VP Al Gore, has political weight against the
current Republican administration and has revived a clamor of
supporters for the former presidential candidate to run for
president again.
"The award granted to Gore and the UN Inter Governmental Panel on
Climate Change represents a new blow from the Nobel Committee to the
Bush administration.
"As soon as President Bush took over, he rejected the Kyoto
Protocol, which was aimed at setting a limit on green gas house
emissions, and during the last seven years he has been unwilling to
accept scientific evidence proving global warming.
"Already in 2002, when former Democratic President Jimmy Carter
received the same award due to his pacifist work, the then head of
the Nobel Committee, Gunnar Berge, underscored that it had been 'a
kick on the Bush administration's leg' due to its policy against
Iraq.
"This time, the current head of the (Nobel Award) Committee, Ole
Danbolt Mjoes, avoided directly implying the Bush administration and
downplayed the implications the Nobel Award could bring to
Washington, where speculation increased on the impact the award will
have on Gore's future presidential bid.
"... In fact, there was a turning point this year in the Bush
administration's anti-environmental posture - during the latest UN
General Assembly it called the representatives of 18 countries
producing the largest amount of green gas house emissions to a
meeting in Washington with the purpose of reviewing common
strategies aimed at lowering their environmental impact and
generating cleaner technologies.
"Meanwhile, in the rest of the country, Gore's followers expect the
award will convince the former VP to run for president, thereby
competing with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, the main Democratic
candidates so far."
- "China - the social costs of 'market Communism'"
Oscar Ral Cardoso, international analyst of leading "Clarn,"
comments (10/13) "The current leader Hu Jintao, the head of the
Chinese Communist Party and head of the Republic, chose three
strategic issues to be tackled at the 17th Congress... although
within the rigid limits of an economically heterodox system that
imposes a rigid social control.
"The Congress will be attended by more than 2,000 delegates...
"Among the topics promoted by Hu, the Congress will be used to
debate the increasing social inequality among the 1.3 billion
inhabitants of one of the main economic powers in the world,
particularly among the inhabitants of the big cities and the
countryside, which still stands for 60 percent of the total
population of the country.
"... We are talking about not less than 700 million people, who are
mired in poverty with a daily income of six Yuan...
"Many factors have brought the country to this - globalization has
affected China the same way it has the rest of the world. Its
benefits tend to go almost exclusively to the wealthiest sectors
without benefiting the rest of society; the political control of the
entire process has left the system vulnerable to the predatory
actions of corruption and the emergence of new industries and
services has cut agricultural production from 29 percent to 12
percent on GDP in a little over a decade.
"There are less visible reasons. Since 1989, the Chinese Communist
Party has paid much more attention to the urban population, which is
fastest and more efficient in staging demonstrations to call the
official attention on its problems, than to rural inhabitants...
"... In any event, the truth is that the Chinese Communist Party
will not be able to dismiss the topic any longer. Imminent Olympiads
are placing China on a showcase that will make its virtues and
shortfalls more visible.
"One could wonder whether it is possible that peasants, the same
historic force that created the Chinese Communist Party, could now
turn against it and its hegemony."
- "Argentina seeks political support from the IMF"
Jorge Luis Velzquez, columnist of leading "Clarn," writes (10/15)
"(Argentine) Economy Minister Miguel Peirano will lead the official
delegation that will attend the IMF Annual Assembly in Washington.
The main objective will be to find out whether the new IMF head,
Dominique Strauss-Kahn, will honor some of the promises he made to
Nstor Kirchner last month, when he was still an applicant and
visited Buenos Aires in search of support.
"If what the Frenchman said was not merely campaigning statements to
get elected, Argentina could find support to make progress on a deal
with Paris Club creditors in return for having voted for him.
Argentina owes some 6.2 billion dollars to 19 countries.
"President Kirchner bets on achieving some progress in his
relationship with the IMF, which should later be reinforced by the
one who replaces him on December 10... He takes for granted the
triumph of his wife Cristina.
"Peirano will seek one basic, although multiple, objective in
Washington - to verify whether Strauss-Kahn confirms the changes he
proclaimed at the IMF, such as granting Latin American countries
more power (at the IMF)...
"If this is so, Argentina could obtain a wink on two issues of
concern. First, having IMF support to negotiate a deal with the
Paris Club... Second, obtaining more power in future decisions
through a reform of IMF decision-making mechanisms, which will
guarantee more voice and vote at the IMF Board..."
- "Who will benefit from the deal between the two Koreas?"
Daily-of-record "La Nacisn" carries an op-ed piece by Carlos Prez
Llana, professor at 21st century and Torcuato Di Tella Universities,
who opines (10/16) "The deals reached between North and South
Korea... have been presented as an achievement of the Bush
administration, a compromise from President Kim and a diplomatic
accomplishment from China.
"However, this interpretation does not provide with response to
multiple questions... First and foremost, President Bush, harassed
by the continuously worsening situation in Iraq and merged in a
strategic arm-wrestling with Tehran, attempted to profit from the
deal betweens the two Koreas, by presenting it as an example that
could well be followed by Iran and a triumph of diplomacy after
having pressured the Pyongyang regime.
"Secondly, the North Korean government will hardly support
Washington's plans - history speaks for itself...
"Third, North Korea's nuclear plans cannot be paralleled with those
of Iran...
"Fourth, truly enough, China has been actively involved in
interrupting North Korea's nuclear plan... Nonetheless, every sign
indicates that China did not play a leading role...
"... Then, who really benefits from the deal between the two Koreas?
While Bush presented the deal as an achievement, conveyed Iranian
moderate sectors that there is a choice and showed to the world that
there are already two governments that have evolved towards
'realism' (Libya and North Korea), and Washington argues that, in
spite of its vulnerable situation in Iraq, the US is still in a
position of been respected, when one deepens the analysis, one comes
to the conclusion that the one who ends up benefiting from the deal
is Kim's regime.
"In fact, North Korea only committed to deactivating a nuclear
reactor, although it has said nothing regarding the nuclear bombs it
has in store and no commitment has been made on missile
production... Instead, Kim did manage to obtain tangible profits -
oil supply, lifting of sanctions and release of embargoed fnds in
diverse financial hubs.
"In summary, perhaps the most important thing is not the nuclear
issue but economy. The two Koreas have a common economic interest -
neither of them wants China to end up absorbing North Korea's
economy, taking advantage of cheap labor and monopolizing the
unexplored mining wealth.
"South Korea, which competes with China and Japan, seeks an
exporting outlet in North Korea, while North Korea wants to get out
of the Socialist stagnation without jeopardizing its survival."
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our
classified website at:
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires
WAYNE