VZCZCXYZ0015
OO RUEHWEB
DE RUEHSO #0504 1621739
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 111739Z JUN 07
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7080
INFO RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 8190
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO PRIORITY 8132
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2798
UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000504
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD
DEPT PASS USTR
USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR
SUBJECT: EUROPE: G-8 SUMMIT, RUSSIA, CLIMATE CHANGE; WESTERN
HEMISPHERE: VENEZUELA, CHAVEZ'S REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL
INFLUENCE; SCO PAULO
1. "George and Vladimir"
Liberal, largest national circulation daily Folha de S. Paulo (6/10)
editorialized: "Vladimir Putin and George W. Bush did not solve
their nations' differences at the G-8 Summit, but succeeded in
moderating the tone of the rhetoric between Russia and the U.S.....
Both know that part of Putin's rhetoric is aimed at the Russian
voters. There will be elections for the Russian parliament in
December and for president in March.... But not everything is
electoral fireworks. There are, in addition to the missiles, major
differences between the two nations. The problem in Kosovo involves
a strong pan-Slavic appeal. The Russian government resents the poor
reward it received for the support given to the U.S. following
September 11, when it offered bases and intelligence services to
defeat the Taliban in Afghanistan. Anchored in its economic
recovery resulting from higher oil prices, Russia wants to resume
its role of a military power, and does not accept the role of a mere
supporter of the West.... It is good news for a world that was
complaining, rightly, about U.S. unilateralism."
2. "Climate Chess"
An editorial in liberal, largest national circulation daily Folha de
S. Paulo (6/9) remarked: "At first glance, Angela Merkel was
defeated at the G-8 Summit. The world's richer nations and Russia
left the meeting without any commitment to the goal of reducing by
half gas emissions causing the greenhouse effect by 2050, as the
German prime minister wanted. From such a biased point of view,
George W. Bush returns to the U.S. as winner.... This is an at least
partial, if not equivocated, interpretation. To expect Bush to sign
a declaration accepting the scientific authority of IPCC forecasts
was something unthinkable a few weeks ago. One can consider timid
the commitment of 'seriously considering the decisions made by the
European Union, Canada and Japan, which include cutting at least by
half the global emissions by 2050.' Certainly, it would be better
for the world climate if instead of this vague objective the G-8
adopted mandatory goals. On the other hand, there was fear that the
U.S. was determined to empty the multilateral meeting on the
climate. On May 31, Bush had proposed a parallel process with the
participation of the 15 biggest polluters.... The change in the
U.S.'s stubborn position may have been minimal, but happened. As
much or even more disappointing was the position adopted by the G-8
and its five emerging invitees. All one can read in their joint
declaration is an equally vague commitment of 'contributing with our
just part to face climate change.' Such a goal will no longer be
achieved without reducing emissions also in these five nations....
To be more inclusive, not only G-8 supporters, but the five emerging
nations will also need to take small steps. One by one, but
immediately."
3. "A Dangerous Partner"
The lead editorial in center-right influential, national circulation
daily O Estado de S. Paulo (6/11) maintained: "Hugo Chvez's
distemper has shown once again that it is necessary to think very
carefully before authorizing Venezuela's membership in Mercosul. It
is not retaliation, but Brazil must take into consideration its own
interests and the consequences for Mercosul that the admission to
the bloc of a partner with enormous potential to create problems
will have.... The Lula administration may not have taken these
motives into consideration, but an important portion of the business
sector has a clear perception of the danger. Mercosul has an
extremely modest record of bilateral and inter-regional trade
agreements and it will have to resume important negotiations
especially if the Doha Round fails.... A new negotiation with the
U.S. will emerge at any moment.... However, it will be much more
difficult to adopt more pragmatic policies for Mercosul if the bloc
has to deal with Hugo Chvez's political ambitions, as well as with
his view of the Hemisphere. Mercosul already has excessive
fractures, and Venezuela's inclusion will only increase its
fragmentation.... Chvez showed once again that he does not respect
or plan to respect partners. No one can doubt that he will always
give less importance to commitments and common interests than to his
ideological view and power ambitions. Incorporated to the bloc, he
will be more of a hindrance to strengthening Mercosul as an actor in
a globalized world and to Brazil's diplomatic action."
McMullen