VZCZCXYZ0007
RR RUEHWEB
DE RUEHBU #1244/01 1772028
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 262028Z JUN 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8512
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 6275
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6140
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 1314
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ JUN MONTEVIDEO 6536
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0507
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/FBI WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001244
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL AR ECON
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: AMBASSADOR WAYNE'S JUNE 25 MEETING WITH FORMER
PRESIDENT ALFONSIN
REF: BUENOS AIRES 01240
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On June 25, Ambassador Wayne called on former
President Raul Alfonsin to discuss Alfonsin's views on the current
political panorama in Argentina. Alfonsin frankly shared his view
that current economic policies are not sustainable and that
Argentina is likely to see economic problems in 2009. He was
critical of the Kirchner administration for fostering weak
institutions, no separation of powers, and for violating the
'coparticipation' (federal-provincial revenue sharing) principles.
In the end, however, he said that he remains an optimist and chooses
to focus on the progress that Argentina has made to date. END
SUMMARY.
-----------------------
Economic Stability
-----------------------
2. (SBU) On June 25, Ambassador Wayne called on former President
Raul Alfonsin to discuss Alfonsin's views on the current political
panorama in Argentina. Alfonsin frankly shared his view that
current economic policies are not sustainable for more than the next
18 to 24 months and that Argentina is likely to see economic
problems in 2009 without significant policy shifts. He said that
Kirchner's lack of an energy policy would create significant
problems. He said that he would have worked harder to expand the
gas pipelines from Bolivia to ensure a more regular and sufficient
supply of gas in Argentina. He mentioned that he understands
Bolivian President Evo Morales's decision to raise the price of gas
for exports to Argentina, which then makes one wonder why gas prices
shouldn't increase in Argentina to help increase supply. Alfonsin
made a point to explain that although he does not see Morales as a
threat, he is against Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's energy
policies and his broader approach.
3. (SBU) Alfonsin said he believes the current level of GDP growth
is unsustainable. He said that Argentina has been lucky that
international markets like in China and in India have been strong
and have added to Argentina's growth. He said he has several
economist friends who do not believe that Argentina will face an
economic crisis in 2008, but see it as more likely in 2009.
Alfonsin said that the stability of international markets are key to
maintaining growth, but if China or India were to suffer a downturn,
Argentina could see a crisis sooner.
--------------------------------------------- -----
Criticisms of the Kirchner Administration
--------------------------------------------- -----
4. (SBU) Alfonsin was critical of the Kirchner administration for
fostering weak institutions, no separation of powers, and for
violating the 'coparticipation' (federal-provincial revenue sharing)
principles. He said that President Kirchner has ""authoritarian
leanings"" and has eroded the separation of powers in the government.
While he thought that Kirchner's appointment of new Supreme Court
Justices was positive, Alfonsin said the changes to the Council of
Magistrates' composition gives the executive branch too much power
to veto dissenting judges. (NOTE: The Council of Magistrates is the
body that oversees the nomination, review, and discipline of judges.
END NOTE.)
5. (SBU) Alfonsin said that federalism in Argentina is just a
""shell."" He said that Kirchner's use of discretionary funds to
'bribe, extort, and trick' opposition politicians to support him is
destroying political parties in Argentina. He said that Kirchner
wants to be the sole representative of the center-left against
Buenos Aires Mayor-elect Mauricio Macri as the center-right leader.
Alfonsin said that he believes Kirchner is not really a center-left
politician, but rather a populist. The former president said he
feared that Kirchner was trying to take the Radical Civic Union
party's center-left role, but he doubted that Kirchner would
succeed.
6. (SBU) Alfonsin said he thought the destruction of the political
party system could lead to an anarchic situation in which strong
provincial leaders (caudillos) could create their own fiefdoms. He
lamented the lack of dialogue with the current administration and
said he thought that the only way to strengthen institutions and
lessen the power of the president would be through the ballot box.
He said, for instance, that in the Buenos Aires June 24 mayoral
election the people's desire for political change (represented by
Mauricio Macri) outweighed their satisfaction with continued
economic growth (represented by Daniel Filmus) (reftel).
--------------------
Still an Optimist
--------------------
7. (SBU) In the end, Alfonsin said that he remains an optimist
about the progress that Argentina has made so far. He emphasized
that at least the military is no longer involved in politics. He
explained his personal ties and affinity to the U.S., where his
son's family lives. He said that he is not fond of big receptions,
but invited the Ambassador to call on him any time. He also argued
frankly that he believed U.S. policy had strayed badly in the Middle
East, adding to anti-Americanism in Latin America as well as
elsewhere.
WAYNE
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