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Cablegate: Croatian Icj Strategy After Bih Verdict

Published: Mon 5 Mar 2007 03:40 PM
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PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
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DE RUEHVB #0219 0641540
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 051540Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7375
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS ZAGREB 000219
SIPDIS
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DEPT PLEASE PASS TO NSC BRAUN
THE HAGUE FOR SCHILDGE, RUPPERT, MANNING, ALEXANDER
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL KAWC PGOV HR WAR CRIMES
SUBJECT: CROATIAN ICJ STRATEGY AFTER BIH VERDICT
REF: 06 ZAGREB 366
1. (SBU) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: While the Croatian media
reacted with outrage to the recent International Court of
Justice (ICJ) ruling finding Serbia not responsible for
genocide in BiH, official GoC reaction has been decidedly
measured. While still waiting for the ICJ to accept its own
genocide case against Serbia, the GoC is carefully studying
its options in what seems to have become a no-win issue for
Croatian leaders. Top legal experts believe an out-of-court
settlement may be the best way to achieve Croatia's goals,
but politicians cannot afford talk of withdrawing the case in
the run-up to what is likely to be a tightly contested
parliamentary election in November. The GoC's most likely
course of action is to quietly continue with case
preparations while not so secretly hoping the ICJ will delay
a decision on accepting the case until after the elections.
END SUMMARY AND COMMENT.
BiH VERDICT MIXED INDICATOR FOR CROATIAN CASE
---------------------------------------------
2. (U) Professor Ivan Simonovic, deputy dean of the Zagreb
law faculty and Croatia's agent before the ICJ, stressed to
reporters that the BiH verdict did not absolve Serbia, but
rather held it responsible for not preventing genocide and
for failing to punish the perpetrators. This will carry
far-reaching political repercussions for Serbia. In
addition, the ICJ's acceptance of jurisdiction over the BiH
case is a good sign for Zagreb, as the ICJ denied
jurisdiction when Croatia first submitted a case against
Serbia in 1999.
3. (SBU) International law expert Ivo Josipovic, a Member of
Parliament and one of Simonovic's fellow professors at the
law faculty, told PolOff March 2 that he was not optimistic
about Croatia's case against Serbia. He predicted the ICJ
would again deny jurisdiction or refuse the case on its
merits, as the court held to a very narrow definition of
genocide in the BiH verdict.
4. (SBU) Josipovic pointed out that the GoC had a better
chance of convincing the ICJ of direct linkages between
Belgrade and crimes committed within Croatia, a key point BiH
lawyers failed to prove. While BiH relied extensively on
international experts and other secondary evidence, according
to Josipovic, Croatia's case is based on primary source
documents showing direct communication between Serbia and
Serb forces in Croatia.
POLITICS PREVENTS CASE WITHDRAWAL
---------------------------------
5. (SBU) While both Simonovic and Josipovic see an
out-of-court settlement as the most likely avenue to any
reparations for Croatia, election year politics prevent the
GoC from publicly considering withdrawing its case against
Serbia. The BiH verdict has already given fodder to parties
on Croatia's far right, and withdrawing the GoC's case would
be political suicide for the ruling party, Josipovic said.
The best the GoC can hope for now, according to Josipovic, is
a delay in the ICJ's decision on jurisdiction until after
November elections.
DELAWIE
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