VZCZCXRO4348
PP RUEHLMC
DE RUEHMU #0783/01 0822045
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 232045Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9590
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1021
RUMIAAA/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 000783
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
WHA/CEN, INR/I
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM NU PREL
SUBJECT: CONSERVATIVE PARTY WILL TAKE APPROACH TO
REIGNING IN PARTY DISSIDENTS (C-AL7-00063)
REF: 2006 MANAGUA 2651
Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).
1. (C) Summary: Conservative Party president Azalia Aviles
Salmeron and PC National Assembly lawmaker Alejandro Bolanos
are determined to strengthen their party and maintain its
alliance with Eduardo Montealegre's Nicaraguan Liberal
Alliance. While ultimately they would prefer to establish a
Conservative Party caucus in the Assembly, they are unwilling
to do so at this juncture because they do not wish to
jeopardize the ALN-PC partnership. Rather, the Conservatives
intend to take an "Akido" approach to their dissidents,
channeling their energies to work for the good of the party.
While Aviles respects Montealegre, she also criticizes his
inability to effectively assert his leadership of his party
and the alliance, and believes he would greatly benefit from
training to hone his "people skills." End Summary.
Conservative Dissidents Call for Party Unity
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
2. (C) The week of March 12, Conservative Party (PC)
dissidents led by former party president Noel Vidaurre
publicly called for party unity and signed a letter sent to
PC President Azalia Aviles Salmeron (Reftel) requesting a
meeting with party leadership. The PC's Board of Directors,
who huddled on March 16 and agreed to hear out Vidaurre, sent
PC Assembly lawmaker Alejandro Bolanos and two other members
of the party's senior leadership to meet with the dissidents
on March 18. Aviles and Bolanos reported to PolCouns on
March 20 that William Baez, Yali Molina, and Ariel Granera,
all associated with the Conservative dissident group called
the "Lilas" (lilacs) also appeared for the meeting although
they had not signed the letter. (Note: The Lilas supported
Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) candidate Enrique Bolanos'
candidacy instead of the Conservative Party presidential
candidate Vidaurre during the 2001 elections. The
combination of the PC's green flag with the PLC's red banner
creates the color purple.)
What's the Hitch?
- - - - - - - - - - -
3. (C) Aviles and Bolanos remarked that the Conservative
dissidents' sudden interest in party unity was suspicious,
possibly driven by "interests external to the party's."
They are certain that the "Lilas" owe their allegiance to the
PLC and may well have been sent by PLC leader Arnoldo Aleman
to prompt the Conservatives to break from the Nicaraguan
Liberal Alliance (ALN) and leader Montealegre, Aleman's
political rival. Although less certain of Vidaurre's
motives, Aviles and Bolanos noted that Vidaurre appeared to
have overcome his resentment of the Lilas for endorsing
Enrique Bolanos' candidacy instead of his own, and both
Vidaurre and the Lilas demanded the PC form its own National
Assembly caucus as a "pre-condition" for their return to the
party fold.
Taking the "Akido" Approach
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
4. (C) Bolanos recounted that he and the other party
representatives listened to the dissidents, clarified that
party unity would not come at the cost of leaving the ALN
alliance, assured them that the PC's doors are open for all
those who are willing to work, and invited them to work for
the good of the party. He reasoned that the party cannot
afford to ignore the dissidents, nor allow them to make
mischief. Thus, PC leaders had decided to refrain from
emotional confrontation, and instead, rely on "Akido style
tactics" to channel the dissenters' energies to suit the
party's purposes. After the dissidents are reincorporated
into the party, their loyalties and disloyalties will soon
become evident, explained Bolanos, who predicted that most
will come around once they receive the attention they crave.
Beware of the Moles
- - - - - - - - - -
5. (C) Dissidents bearing especially close monitoring,
however, are "Lilas" Baez, Molina, and Granera, as well as
Vidaurre and talk show host Jaime Arellano, suggested
Bolanos. He conjectured that some of these individuals are
working to benefit Aleman and his ally Ortega, while others
are more driven by their interest in obtaining a leadership
position in the Conservative party structure now that the
party was re-energized after it won seats in the National
Assembly. (Note: Aviles told us that according to a
December 2006 poll conducted by generally reputable M,
13%-17% of respondents expressed some affiliation or sympathy
with the Conservative Party.)
God, Order, and Justice
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
6. (C) In a meeting with PolCouns and TDY analysts on March
22, Aviles reiterated the PC's commitment to the ALN-PC
alliance and its decision not to form an independent caucus
at this juncture even though its by-laws stipulate that it
should. (Note: Five Conservative Party deputies and nine
substitute deputies serve in the National Assembly.) Aviles
emphasized the PC's desire to reform its by-laws in order to
help the party shed its image of an outdated, elitist party,
although it does not intend to alter its basic motto "God,
Order, and Justice." While acknowledging that few
ideological differences exist any longer between the
Conservatives and Liberals, she noted that, unlike the
Liberals, the Conservatives are committed to order and prefer
gradual change.
A Reluctant Leader
- - - - - - - - -
7. (C) Regarding the PC's alliance with the ALN, she
clarified that her party signed an agreement in September
2005 with Eduardo Montealegre, who at the time was without a
party. While she voiced her respect for Montealegre, Aviles
also criticized his inability to effectively assert his
leadership of the ALN, adding that Conservative lawmakers in
the ALN-PC alliance are frustrated with their caucus' lack of
direction in the Assembly. She opined that while
Montealegre's natural demeanor is that of the banker that he
is -- not a spontaneous flesh-pressing, baby-kissing
politician a la Arnoldo Aleman -- he could be groomed to
project more to the people. Aviles recounted how in her
meeting with Monteleagre a week ago, she had attempted to
boost his political morale -- assuring him that he is the
most viable opposition leader, and as such, must assume the
responsibility. She reported Montealegre was pleased by her
compliments, but also appeared uncertain whether he was up to
the task.
Comment
- - - -
8. (C) Conservative Party leaders have been responsive to
our encouraging them to remain in the ALN-PC alliance and
refrain from forming a separate caucus at this stage. So
long as the ALN recognizes the PC's contributions and if it
succeeds in strengthening the alliance, the Conservatives are
likely to maintain the status quo. Despite Montealegre's
introverted inclinations and his banker reputation, he is
politically ambitious and draws public appeal, as evidenced
in the polls. He would benefit greatly from political
grooming to consolidate his position as opposition leader.
TRIVELLI