VZCZCXRO4539
RR RUEHBI RUEHCI
DE RUEHCG #0143/01 0531143
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 221143Z FEB 07
FM AMCONSUL CHENNAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0684
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 2297
RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO 1304
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 0717
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 4980
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000143
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR PTER IN CE
SUBJECT: TAMIL TIGERS' ARMS SMUGGLING ON THE UPSWING
REF: 2006 Chennai 1426
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Smuggling of arms and bomb-making materials by
the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eeelam between the Indian state of
Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka appears to be on the rise. Indian
authorities seized three vessels last week carrying arms and
bomb-making material. Most troublingly, one of the seized vessels
carried a large suicide bomb vest. Although initial reports
suggested that the bomb vest was intended for use against a target
in India, further investigation cast significant doubt on that
theory. END SUMMARY
-----------------------------
WEAPONS SMUGGLING ON THE RISE
-----------------------------
2. (SBU) On February 12, the Indian Navy seized a vessel carrying
more than 6,000 pounds of aluminum bars along with large quantities
of metal rings, gaskets, and pins likely for assembling improvised
explosive devices. On February 13, the Indian Coast Guard seized
another vessel: this one contained weapons and ammunition, several
drums of liquid chemical, detonators, and most troublingly, a vest
with 15 pounds of explosive stitched into various compartments for
use in a suicide attack. A day later, on February 14, the Indian
Navy seized a third vessel carrying three tons of non-ferrous metals
for use in explosives manufacture. The vessels seized on February
12 and 14 were undoubtedly going from Tamil Nadu to Sri Lanka; there
is some ambiguity about the origin and destination of the vessel
seized on February 13 (see paragraphs 4 and 5).
3. (SBU) On February 20, police raided a compound in Tamil Nadu
where they found more than 4,000 pounds of aluminum ingots.
According the police, the Tigers were going to ship the ingots to
Sri Lanka in vessels such as those seized by Indian authorities the
week prior. The ingots were to be used as components in improvised
explosive devices.
4. (SBU) After a period of minimal weapons trafficking (reftel),
the seizures signal an upsurge in smuggling of arms and supplies
between Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka. A journalist who has closely
observed the Tamil Nadu/Sri Lanka relationship for more than 20
years believes that smuggling is becoming increasingly frequent. He
noted it is difficult to detect and interdict smugglers because
there are several hundred small fishing craft plying the waters
between Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu every day. B. Raman, an
independent analyst (formerly with India's equivalent of the Central
Intelligence Agency, the Research and Analysis Wing), wrote that
"the latest seizure, coming in the wake of other material such as
the ball bearings seized earlier, clearly show that the [Tamil
Tigers], in its desperate attempts to replenish its stocks, has
embarked on a major drive to re-activate its procurement network in
India." Raman argues that recent military successes by the Sri
Lankan army, coupled with a drying up of its other overseas arms
suppliers, have forced the Tigers to look to India for re-supply.
--------------------------------------------- -----
SUICIDE VEST DESTINED FOR ATTACK ON INDIAN SOIL? DOUBTFUL.
--------------------------------------------- -----
5. (SBU) Initial descriptions of the February 13 incident said that
the seized vessel was traveling from Sri Lanka to Tamil Nadu. After
towing the vessel into Chennai harbor, the Coast Guard regional
commander Rajendra Singh held an unusual press conference where he
proudly displayed the "big catch" of seized weapons and bomb
materials and said that "[c]ertainly, the boat is from Sri Lanka,
heading for a destination somewhere along the Tamil Nadu coast."
According to local news reports, Singh further opined that "our
preliminary assessment is that the [suicide vest] was meant to cause
destruction in a big congregation" such as a religious festival or
election event.
6. (SBU) The Tamil Nadu authorities quickly disavowed the Coast
Guard's version of events after taking custody of the suspects. A
late night press release from the police said the Tiger vessel was
traveling between points within Sri Lanka when it was chased into
Indian waters by the Sri Lankan Navy. Additional Director General
of Police (Intelligence) Nanjil Kumaran informed post that the Tamil
Nadu police were confident that the vessel was not headed for Indian
territory. Kumaran said Sri Lanka's recent military offensive has
severed many Tamil Tiger overland supply lines, forcing the Tigers
to rely more on the sea lanes. The vessel seized on February 13
was, according to him, a standard Tamil Tiger supply boat ferrying
materials between points in Sri Lanka.
7. (SBU) COMMENT: Post puts more credence in the Tamil Nadu
police's assessment that the vessel was traveling between points in
Sri Lanka rather than headed to India. Although the Coast Guard has
not formally withdrawn Commander Singh's version of events, it has
CHENNAI 00000143 002 OF 002
not presented a defense after the subsequent contradictory
statements by the Tamil Nadu authorities. This silence speaks
volumes. Moreover, the Coast Guard vessel which conducted the
seizure did not have a single Tamil speaker on board. Given the
lack of a common language, the Coast Guard interpretation of events
is likely a simple miscommunication.
8. (SBU) The Tigers have not conducted a major attack in India
since the 1991 assassination of Rajiv Gandhi. A mass casualty
suicide attack against Indian civilians would likely backfire
against the Tigers, as did the 1991 assassination. They are
unlikely to make the same mistake twice. END COMMENT.
KAPLAN