VZCZCXYZ0009
OO RUEHWEB
DE RUEHSO #1286 3561117
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 221117Z DEC 06
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6190
INFO RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 7278
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO PRIORITY 7671
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2663
UNCLAS SAO PAULO 001286
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD
DEPT PASS USTR
USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: CUBA; SAO PAULO
"Cubans Awaiting The End Of Fidel's Era"
Center-right O Estado de S. Paulo's reporter Luiz Zanin Oricchio
reports from Havana (12/22): "Cubans are awaiting with apparent
serenity the transition that will follow the end of Fidel Castro's
era. There is a clear farewell climate in the air. Even the
official tone of the newspapers seems to be exaggerated.... The cult
of personality extends to the television with an overdose of
video-clips on the revolution and debates on the historical
importance of the leader.... It is the reaffirmation process of an
already built image, aimed at reinforcing social cohesion for a
transition that the regime intends to carry out without any risk....
There is no credible news on Fidel's health.... The media prepares a
farewell and at the same time reaffirms that he continues alive and
alert.... No one believes that Fidel will reassume the post
completely. People believe that he may survive, but this is all.
Transition is inescapable and everyone is aware of that. There is a
general sensation of farewell involving the nation.... There are
those who believe that the transition will be quick and radical, as
the Cuban exile community in Miami wishes. But there are also those
who think that it will be slow and gradual, but inexorable towards
capitalism and democracy. And there are some who believe that the
transition is already taking place, as is the case of British
historian Richard Gott, who says in his recent book that while
superficial conservatives believe that Cuba is a gerontocracy, the
decision making power has actually been transferred to talented
young politicians such as Carlos Lage Dvila, secretary of the
Executive Committee of the Ministerial Council, and Ricardo Alarcon
de Quesada, president of the National Assembly. Raul Castro heads
the Army and Fidel is now a sick and aged chief of state who
symbolizes the revolutionary achievements. When he dies, everything
will allow an already outlined course."
Wolfe