VZCZCXRO9155
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHKI #1788/01 3311442
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 271442Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5215
INFO RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001788
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: PRO-KABILA COALITION AHEAD IN AT
LEAST FIVE PROVINCIAL ASSEMBLY CONTESTS
1. (U) Summary: The DRC's Independent Electoral Commission
(CEI) has announced results for 472 of the 632 provincial
assembly seats in the October 29 election. According to CEI
tallies, President Joseph Kabila's Alliance for the
Presidential Majority (AMP) coalition has won majorities in
four of the DRC's eleven provinces and is likely to win a
majority in at least one more. Vice President Jean-Pierre
Bemba's Union for the Nation (UN) alliance can claim a
majority in Bas-Congo province and is currently leading the
vote for two other assemblies. End summary.
2. (U) As of November 27, the CEI has released results for
472 of the 632 provincial assembly seats in the DRC's eleven
provinces. With 75 percent of all seats awarded, the
pro-Kabila People's Party for Reconstruction and Development
(PPRD) has won 99 seats; Bemba's Movement for the Liberation
of Congo (MLC) has won 71.
3. (U) The AMP can currently claim majorities in the eastern
provinces of Maniema, North Kivu, South Kivu, and Orientale.
The AMP also holds a substantial lead in Katanga and will
likely win a majority there. In Bandundu and Eastern Kasai
provinces, the AMP is maintaining a slight lead over Bemba's
UN coalition, but a substantial number of seats in both
provinces have been won by parties that are currently
unaligned.
4. (4) The UN coalition has won a majority in the western
province of Bas-Congo. It has a slight lead in Equateur and
Western Kasai provinces as well.
5. (U) Several parties aligned with Kabila's AMP have won a
substantial number of seats nationwide. The Movement for
Social Renewal (MSR) has won 34 seats thus far, while Mbusa
Nyamwisi's Forces for Renewal coalition has won 29 seats.
Former Public Works Minister (and former Bemba ally) Jose
Endundu's Christian Democrat Party (CDP) has won 16 seats,
mostly in Equateur province.
6. (U) Two other prominent Kabila allies have not fared as
well in provincial voting. Antoine Gizenga's Unified
Lumumbist Party (PALU) has won just five seats, all of them
in Bandundu province. Nzanga Mobutu's Union for Mobutuist
Democrats (UDEMO) has won just four seats, two of them in
Nzanga's home province of Equateur.
7. (U) Vice President Azarias Ruberwa's Rally for Congolese
Democracy (RCD) party, has had a strong showing thus far in
the provincial elections. The RCD has won 31 seats to date
nationwide, with the majority in eastern provinces. Ruberwa's
party won just 15 seats in the July 30 elections for the
National Assembly.
8. (U) The following is a breakdown of the results by
province:
--------
BANDUNDU
--------
Sixty-six of 77 seats have been awarded to date in Bandundu.
The AMP can claim at least 24, while the UN coalition has won
at least 21. The PPRD has won nine seats to the MLC's ten.
The AMP appears to be benefiting not just from its alliance
with PALU (five seats), but also from its coalition with the
MSR (four seats), Olivier Kamitatu's Alliance for the Renewal
of Congo (three seats), and Forces for Renewal (three seats).
Nineteen of the remaining seats have gone to parties not
currently aligned with either alliance.
---------
BAS-CONGO
---------
All seats have been awarded in Bas-Congo, with the UN
alliance claiming 15 of the 27. The MLC won five to the
PPRD's four and the RCD's three. Bemba's UN alliance secured
its majority through alliances with two smaller provincial
parties with strong support in the region, the Party for
Peace in Congo (CONGO-PAX) and the Alliance of the Builders
of Kongo (ABAKO).
-------------
EASTERN KASAI
-------------
KINSHASA 00001788 002 OF 002
The AMP currently leads the voting in Eastern Kasai with 44
of the province's 61 seats announced. The PPRD has picked up
nine seats thus far, while the MLC has won just three. The
RCD has done particularly well in the province, winning six
seats to date. A significant number of seats -- 13 in total
-- have gone to parties not yet aligned with either coalition.
--------
EQUATEUR
--------
No clear majority party or coalition has yet emerged in
Equateur. Bemba's UN coalition leads with 38 of the 78 seats
awarded thus far, and the AMP has won 31. There are 100 seats
total in this provincial assembly. While the PPRD has won
just ten seats to the MLC's 30, the AMP has benefited from
its alliance with Endundu's PDC party, which has won ten
seats.
-------
KATANGA
-------
With 33 of the 93 seats in Katanga awarded, the AMP has won
33 to the UN's five. The PPRD alone has won 20 of the seats
announced thus far, and it is likely the AMP will win a
majority in the province once the remaining results are
announced.
--------
KINSHASA
--------
Results for just six of Kinshasa's 44 provincial assembly
seats have been announced to date. The MLC has won four of
these seats.
-------
MANIEMA
-------
The AMP is the clear majority in Maniema, winning 14 of the
22 seats there. The MLC did not win a single seat in the
province, although its UN coalition did claim one. The PPRD
won six seats and its ally Forces for Renewal won another
five.
----------
NORTH KIVU
----------
The AMP also won a majority in North Kivu, taking 22 of the
province's 38 seats. The MLC did win won seat there, but the
PPRD took nine, while the AMP-aligned MSR and Forces for
Renewal each won five.
---------
ORIENTALE
---------
The AMP can claim a majority in Orientale province, although
not all seats have yet been awarded. The alliance has so far
won 56 of the 88 seats, with the PPRD alone taking 19. Other
winners in the province include the MSR with eleven seats and
Forces for Renewal with ten. Bemba's MLC has won eight seats
to date in the province, while his UN alliance can currently
claim 15 overall.
----------
SOUTH KIVU
----------
Kabila's AMP will also be able to claim a majority in South
Kivu. With 27 of the province's 33 seats announced, the AMP
has won 19, while Bemba's UN coalition has not won a single
seat.
-------------
WESTERN KASAI
-------------
Western Kasai is another toss-up race. Twenty-seven of the
province's 49 provincial assembly seats have thus far been
awarded, with the UN alliance claiming eleven and the AMP
winning seven. Eight seats have gone to unaffiliated parties.
MEECE