VZCZCXYZ0010
OO RUEHWEB
DE RUEHSO #0741 1881236
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 071236Z JUL 06 ZDK
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5368
INFO RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 6455
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO PRIORITY 7244
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2514
UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000741
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD
DEPT PASS USTR
USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: WESTERN HEMISPHERE: MEXICAN PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTIONS; EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC: DPRK NUCLEAR PROGRAM, MISSILE
LAUNCHING; SAO PAULO
1. "Fires That The US Dreamed Of Extinguishing Are Multiplying"
Center-right O Estado de S. Paulo Paris correspondent Giles Lapouge
underscored (7/7): "The war in Iraq has proved to all unruly,
rebelling or messianic nations that they will never be safe from the
US's wrath. The only way to prevent the US from going to war is the
possession of arms of mass destruction. Since the catastrophe in
Iraq the nuclear bomb has been seen throughout the Middle East as
the only protection of weak nations against the US. This is one of
the reasons for the North Korean missile tests. It is also the
reason that pushes a more dangerous and fearful nation than North
Korea, Iran, to develop nuclear weapons against everyone's will....
The US is at the limit of its intervention capability. Not only
because its troops are exhausted, but because the fires Washington
dreamed of extinguishing have multiplied and are threatening regions
that the US thought it could save.... This is how one can explain
the US's prudence and apathy before the small and ragged North
Korea. The US seems unable to add to its ruinous expeditions in Iraq
and Afghanistan an even limited blow against the tiny North Korea."
2. "Disturbed Elections"
Liberal, largest national circulation daily Folha de S. Paulo (7/7)
editorialized: "The political situation in Mexico continues to be
confusing after the general elections. The recounting of votes gave
the victory to government-supported candidate Felipe Calderon by a
less than one percent advantage over leftist Andres Manuel Lopez
Obrador, who has made accusations of fraud and promised to question
the returns in court. It is a scenario that resembles very much
George W. Bush's disturbed election in 2000.... Obrador has reasons
to fear fraud. It was frequent during the 70-year period of PRI's
(Institutional Revolutionary Party) dominance.... Now, however,
there has been no apparent massive adulteration of votes. There were
hundreds of international observers and they did not notice
suspicious moves. What happened were basic mistakes involving lack
of transparency by IFE (Federal Electoral Institute). Because of
such mistakes, the process lost credibility."
3. "Mexico's Unstable Transition Towards Democracy"
Business-oriented Valor Economico (7/7) remarked: "Mexico is living
an unstable transition stage between a septuagenarian dictatorship
of a single party and a full democracy with strong parties. The
process began with President Vicente Fox's election in 2000, but is
experiencing an impasse shown in Felipe Calderon's tight and
controversial victory.... While the shadows of political gangsterism
are disappearing from the Mexican political scene, many sensitive
questions remain. More that 50 million Mexicans live below the
poverty line near the world's richest nation.... Mexico has a low
inflation rate, but it is no longer growing. The legion of Mexicans
crossing the borders looking for jobs - as well as the US increasing
truculence searching mechanisms to stop them - demonstrates that the
nation's serious problems were not resolved with Nafta."
McMullen