S.T. Lee Lecture In Antarctic Studies
Richard Alley (via Live Video-Link)
Evan Pugh Professor of Geosciences, The Pennsylvania State University, USA
Through a Crevasse Darkly: An Update on the Future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
Recent rapid changes have dispelled the comfortable view of a coldly aloof Antarctic ice sheet largely ignoring changes
in its surroundings. Many new discoveries show that elements of Antarctic ice cover are surprisingly sensitive to
warming and could accelerate sea-level rise. Even slight warming of water beneath ice shelves can speed ice flow to the
ocean, as can puddling of meltwater on top of ice shelves to wedge open crevasses.
In the warmer distant past tens of millions of years ago the whole ice sheet was smaller and more dynamic, but even as
recently as 3-5 million years ago new geological records indicate a notable reduction or disappearance of the smaller
West Antarctic Ice Sheet when global average temperature was only 2-3ºC warmer than today.
Yet, translating these new results into useful predictions remains difficult, with no consensus on whether future
changes in the ice sheet will be fast enough to matter to modern policymakers. In the words of the IPCC
"...understanding...is too limited to...provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level rise". Fortunately, that
understanding is coming, and useful projections may become possible soon.
Tuesday 20th May, 2008
Ilott Theatre, Wellington Town Hall
111 Wakefield Street
Wellington
Lecture 12.30pm
Preceded by a lunch at 12.00pm
Forum 1.20-1.50pm
Panel:
Dr. Nancy Bertler - Antarctic Research Centre
Prof. Jonathan Boston - Institute of Policy Studies
Dr. Andrew Mackintosh - School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences
Prof. Martin Manning - Climate Change Research Institute
Moderator:
Prof. Peter Barrett - Antarctic Research Centre, Climate Change Research Institute
ENDS