TDG Press Release
HDTV Intenders to Significantly Impact High-Def DVD Battle
TDG’s Latest Research Suggests HD DVD May
Benefit from Pull of Mainstream HDTV Buyers
December 10, 2007 (Dallas, TX)
According to research from The Diffusion Group, close to one-third of non-HDTV households are interested in purchasing a
new HDTV in the next six months – a very encouraging sign for HDTV manufacturers and, by relation, high-def DVD
manufacturers. More interesting, perhaps, is that the same research found that the characteristics of these “HDTV
Intenders” vary widely from that of current HDTV owners. HDTV Intenders tend to be younger, single, more ethnically
diverse, and have lower annual household incomes than current HDTV owners – in many respects more characteristic of
mainstream consumers than the early adopters who today own an HDTV.
While this trend could in theory benefit either Blu-ray or HD DVD, the data suggests otherwise. Among HDTV Intenders who
are likely to purchase a new high-def DVD player in the next six months, 43% prefer HD DVD, 27% prefer Blu-ray, and 30%
“The strength of this preference and its correlation to mainstream attributes are notable,” states Michael Greeson,
president and principal analyst with The Diffusion Group. “Today’s high-def DVD owner is likely an early adopter with a
knack for power gaming; most certainly tech-sophisticates not at all mainstream in temperament. The next wave of buyers
is comprised of early mass-market consumers, a much larger segment with a focus on practical considerations such as
price. It is TDG’s opinion that the format which can best address the needs of mainstream consumers will emerge as the
winner of this format war.”
High-Def DVD Status & Tech Adopter Status
Non-Owning High-Def DVD Intenders (n = 293)
High-Def DVD Owners(n = 517)
I love technology and I am typically the first to own the newest devices.
I like being aware of new technology, but I typically wait until the price starts coming down and I know the product
By the time I purchase a new technology, many people are already owners and the price has dropped enough for me to be
I never buy “new” technologies, because by the time I buy (or someone else buys it for me), everyone else already has
one and it is no longer considered “new.”
TDG’s research confirms this conclusion. When asked to characterize their own “status” as technology consumers, High-Def
DVD Owners are five times more likely than Non-Owning High-Def DVD Intenders to see themselves as early adopters.
Conversely, Non-Owning High-Def DVD Intenders are almost twice as likely as High-Def DVD Owners to view themselves as
early mass-market buyers.
As is the case with the diffusion of most new technologies, TDG believes there will be several “waves” of high-def DVD
buyers, each of which will be motivated by different factors. The most immediate wave, which is expected to be exhausted
by early 2008, is comprised of the remaining early adopters who have yet to buy a high-def DVD player and which (not
surprisingly) show a preference for Blu-ray. The second (and more sizable) wave will consist of early mass-market
consumers who, while less enthusiastic about technology per se and very price sensitive, are more likely to favor HD DVD
(a conclusion grounded in TDG’s latest primary research).
TDG recently fielded two separate primary research studies focused on consumer interest in next-generation media
platforms: the first, an October 2007 survey of 1,500 U.S. adult Internet users; the second, a November 2007 survey of
2,000 U.S. adult broadband users. This larger study is now being offered for purchase by contacting Andy Tarczon at
About The Diffusion Group (TDG):
TDG is an analytics and advisory firm helping companies in the connected home and broadband media markets. Using a
unique think-tank approach that blends executive-level consultants and in-depth market research, TDG generates reasoned
and pragmatic insights that help clients make intelligent market decisions. TDG produces more than just research - we
create Intelligence in Action®.
Copyright © 2007 The Diffusion Group