NATIONAL CLIMATE CENTRE TUESDAY 6 SEPTEMBER 2005
SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK: SEPTEMBER - NOVEMBER 2005
Mild Spring Likely With Less Westerly Wind
Climate and Oceans: More anticyclones are expected east of the South Island with weaker spring westerly winds over New
Zealand. Sea temperatures around New Zealand are likely to be near or above average. The tropical Pacific is presently
in a neutral state (no El Niño or La Niña). Conditions are likely to stay in the neutral range through the rest of 2005.
Temperature: Air temperatures are expected to be above average in the North Island and average or above average in the
South Island.
Rainfall, Soil Moisture and Stream flows: Rainfalls are likely to be normal or above normal in the east of the North
Island, and north of the South Island. Normal rainfall is likely in the other districts. Below normal soil moisture and
river flow levels are expected in the east of the South Island. Elsewhere soil moisture and streamflows are expected to
be normal.
Regional predictions for the next three months:
Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty:
Above average temperatures are likely during September - November. Near normal rainfall stream flows and soil moisture
is expected.
Central North Island, Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatu and Wellington:
For the three month period, above average temperatures are expected. Normal seasonal rainfall, soil moisture levels, and
streamflows are likely.
Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Wairarapa:
Temperatures are forecast to be above average during the spring period. Above normal or normal rainfall is likely, with
near normal soil and streamflows expected.
Nelson, Marlborough, Buller:
Above average or average seasonal temperatures are expected, with normal or above normal rainfall likely over the three
months. Normal soil moisture levels and stream flows predicted for this region.
West Coast, Alps and Foothills, Inland Otago, Southland:
Average or above average seasonal temperatures are forecast. Normal rainfall, soil moisture levels and river flows are
predicted.
Coastal Canterbury, East Otago:
Average September - November temperatures are expected with normal rainfall. Below normal soil moisture levels and
stream flows expected.
ENDS
More information can be found on NIWA’s Website at: http://www.niwa.co.nz/ncc
© Copyright NIWA 2005. All rights reserved. Acknowledgement of NIWA as the source is required.