Ministry’s earthquake strengthening consultation paper alarmist and misleading
Proposals released by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment in December 2012 on the earthquake
strengthening of existing buildings, used a test of ‘earthquake prone’ building which is much more severe than defined
in law, leading to the incorrect conclusion that there are 15,000 to 25,000 earthquake prone buildings in New Zealand
likely to collapse in a moderate earthquake.
“In fact very few buildings are likely to collapse in a moderate earthquake” said Ian Harrison, Principal at tailrisk
economics and author of a research paper examining the government proposals released today.
Some councils are currently using the test to designate earthquake prone buildings, causing building owners to incur
substantial unnecessary costs. It is likely that most of their designations would not survive a legal challenge.
“Also”, Harrison said, “the proposals will save only 0.25 lives a year at a cost of over $4 billion. If this money was
put into road safety it could possibly save over 20 lives a year”.
Harrison’s paper focuses on the cost benefit analysis of the proposal, starting with the Ministry expert’s own analysis
which shows the costs are 50 times the benefits. Harrison found the cost benefit ratio for earthquake strengthening in
Auckland to be 1762. For the proposals to be beneficial to society the costs need to be less than the benefits.
Harrison’s paper recommends the government scrap the current proposals and develop earthquake strengthening standards
and policies which are based on sound, transparent and disinterested analysis. He also recommends councils withdraw
earthquake prone classifications which are not based on the legal definition of earthquake prone.
Link to the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employments proposals document: www.dbh.govt.nz/consultingon-epbp-consultation-document
ends