PUBLICITY RELEASE
MONDAY NOVEMBER 3 2008
Ikaroa Rawhiti Voters Split In Maori Television Poll
A political poll commissioned by Maori Television indicates that there is very little difference in the level of voters’
support between the two main candidates standing for the Maori seat of Ikaroa Rawhiti. In the most recent survey taken
in the last week of October, incumbent MP Parekura Horomia gathered 50 per cent of the vote while the Maori Party
candidate, Derek Fox, won 45 per cent support. This result is within the margin of error and is just less than the
proportion of voters (seven per cent) who have yet to form an opinion.
In terms of the party vote, Labour’s lead is more certain. Just over a half (51 per cent) of decided voters claim they
would support Labour, 18 points ahead of the Maori Party’s share of the party vote (33 per cent) and also greater than
the proportion of non-committed voters (14 per cent). The other three main parties gained an equivalent level of support
with NZ First and the Greens both getting five per cent of the vote and the National Party securing four per cent.
Maori voters in Ikaroa Rawhiti were also asked which party – National or Labour – they would prefer the Maori Party
formed a majority government if this was required after the upcoming election. Most (82 per cent) of this sample would
prefer that the Maori Party went with Labour rather than National (10 per cent). The remainder said neither (four per
cent) or don’t know (four per cent).
The special analysis of Maori voters’ opinions of political parties, electoral candidates and issues in Ikaroa Rawhiti
was unveiled tonight (Monday November 3 at 8.00 PM) on weekly current affairs show NATIVE AFFAIRS. The final two
episodes of Maori Television’s coverage of the 2008 General Election – KOWHIRI ’08 – will screen on Tuesday November 4
and Wednesday November 5 at 8.30 PM.
Prepared by Baseline Consultancy and TNS Direct, the latest research polled 500 voter eligible Maori voters registered
on the Ikaroa Rawhiti Maori roll between October 23 and November 1 2008. The maximum margin of error is 4.5 per cent.
Across the seven Maori seats surveyed, Helen Clark gained her highest level of support (42 per cent) as preferred prime
minister in this East Coast electorate. Winston Peters (13 per cent), then the two co-leaders Pita Sharples (seven per
cent) and Tariana Turia (seven per cent), follow in popularity. John Key does not have a lot of support in Ikaroa
Rawhiti with only two per cent of voters supporting him to be PM.
This latest poll confirms that the most pressing issues for Maori throughout the country are to ensure: access to
quality education for their children (94 per cent – very important); a positive future for their children (93 per cent);
access to affordable quality health services (90 per cent); and a sense that people can feel safe in their homes or out
on the street (89 per cent).
The Labour Party performed particularly well in Ikaroa Rawhiti in terms of its association as being the party that would
be able to provide the best local health (50 per cent), housing (51 per cent), employment (49 per cent) and education
(47 per cent) services. Such results may have combined to help Labour be positioned as the party clearly most likely to
provide a positive future for the voters’ children (46 per cent vs 27 per cent for the Maori Party). And, even on the
more contentious issues of ensuring a sense of safety at home or on the street, Labour, on 39 per cent, won more support
than the Maori Party (24 per cent) or the National Party (13 per cent).
MMP VOTING – PARTY VOTE: If a general election was held yesterday, which political party would you have voted for?
Political Party
Party Vote %
Labour
51
Maori Party
33
Green Party
5
NZ First
5
National
4
Progressive
-
ACT
0.2
United
-
Family Party
0.5
All others
1
Base (those with an opinion)
430
Don’t know/undecided
13
Would not vote
1
Total Sample
500
PREFERRED ELECTORAL CANDIDATE – IKAROA RAWHITI:
Ikaroa-Rawhiti Candidate
Candidate %
Parekura Horomia (Labour Party)
50
Derek Fox (Maori Party)
45
Bevan Tipene-Matua (Greens)
5
Other candidates
1
Base (those with an opinion)
461
None
1
Don’t know
6
Total Sample
500
PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER:
Main candidates
Total %
Helen Clark
42
Winston Peters
13
Tariana Turia
7
Pita Sharples
7
John Key
2
Jeanette Fitzsimmons
1
Others (less than 0.5%)
5
None
3
Don’t know
20
Base
500
IMPORTANT ISSUES FOR MAORI VOTERS IN IKAROA RAWHITI:
Issue
Very important %
Quite important %
Not that important %
Of no importance to me %
Don’t know not applicable %
Quality education for my children
94
5
1
-
0.2
Access to affordable quality health services
90
9
1
0.2
-
Fair settlement of Treaty of Waitangi claims
70
20
7
1
2
Good jobs in my area
79
16
4
1
0.2
Access to affordable, quality housing in my area
72
20
6
1
1
People can feel safe in their homes or out on the street
89
10
1
0.6
0.2
My children will have a positive future
93
6
1
1
0.2
Base: 500
WHICH POLITICAL PARTY MAORI VOTERS BELIEVE WOULD DO THE BEST JOB OF DELIVERING ON THESE ISSUES:
Issue
Labour Party
%
Maori Party
%
National Party
%
NZ First
%
Green Party
%
None
%
Don’t know
%
Your children receive quality education
47
26
8
3
2
2
12
You can access affordable quality health services
50
27
5
2
4
3
10
There is fair settlement of Treaty of Waitangi claims
30
58
2
2
1
2
5
There are good jobs in my area
49
21
7
3
1
4
16
Access to affordable, quality housing in my area
51
23
3
2
2
3
15
People can feel safe in their homes or out on the street
39
24
13
4
2
5
14
Your children will have a positive future
46
27
6
4
6
2
8
Base: 500
WHICH IKAROA RAWHITI CANDIDATE WOULD MAORI VOTERS ASSOCIATE WITH THESE STATEMENTS:
Statements
Parekura Horomia (Labour)
%
Derek Fox (Maori Party)
%
Bevan Tipene-Matua (Greens)%
None
%
D/K
%
Can be trusted
48
38
9
8
11
Will deliver on promises
44
42
9
6
12
Knows the needs of the local people
61
48
10
2
6
Is experienced in politics
73
31
3
1
6
Is a capable leader
48
47
5
5
9
Would be good in a crisis
45
44
6
3
13
Has lots of personality
52
47
5
3
8
Base: 500
COALITION PARTIES FOR THE MAORI PARTY:
Preferred coalition partner with the Maori Party
Yes %
Labour
82
National
10
Neither
4
Don't Know
4
Base: 500
KOWHIRI ’08 is co-hosted by Native Affairs presenter Julian Wilcox and Te Kaea political reporter Tina Wickliffe and
includes expert commentary from panellists Ms Sandra Lee and Dr Ann Sullivan as well as additional observations by
political scientist Dr Maria Bargh and Dr Ranginui Walker. The final two episodes screen on Tuesday November 4 and
Wednesday November 5 at 8.30 PM with live-to-air election night coverage on Saturday November 8 from 8.00 PM. For more
information, go to the website www.maoritelevision.com.
ENDS