3 News TNS Poll
Opinion Poll Results
9th to 15th June 2005
[SCOOP EDITOR'S NOTE: TV3 News’ TNS Poll has shown that if an election was held today, based on the poll’s findings, Labour and centre-left parties would not
have the numbers to govern alone. The Poll shows New Zealand First on 11 percent with 14 MPs in Parliament. That would
place its leader Winston Peters in the box seat to influence policy from either inside or outside a coalition.
Centre-right parties would also have the numbers to govern.]
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“TNS used to be called NFO/CM Research, and is still New Zealand’s leading consultative market research and
intelligence company”
Projected number of seats in the House on the basis of the latest poll results
Option One* Number of seats These figures include only those parties who gain above the 5% threshold on the Party Vote, and do not take into
account Electorate Vote support
Labour 52
National 38
NZ First 14
Green Party 8
Maori Party -
United future -
Progressive -
ACT - -
Option One Total seats 120
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Number of seats Option Two* These figures are based on Progressive, United Future and the Maori Party winning one electorate seat each
Labour 49
National 45
NZ First 14
Green Party 7
Maori Party 3
United future 2
Progressive 1
ACT - -
Option Two Total seats 121
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3 News TNS Opinion Poll
Research Methodology
Date poll was conducted Interviews were conducted over the period 9th June to 15th June 2005
Sample Size 1000 voter eligible New Zealanders aged 18+
Sampling Technique Telephone Interviews. Random generation of telephone numbers with quota sampling to ensure
representative cross section by age, sex and geography.
Sample Coverage National including rural, secondary urban and main urban areas
Sample Error Maximum of 3.1% expressed at a 95% confidence level
ENDS