The Letter Monday 29 November 2004
SIS
Most MPs think that the Sunday Star Times has been the victim of a joke. The SIS, which is undergoing a rapid expansion,
is preoccupied with Muslim terrorism. Even during the cold war the SIS was reluctant to examine the activities of NZ'ers
unless they were connected to foreign governments. The Lange government wanted to know if the SIS had files on
Trotskyite organizations. Trotsky advocated violent revolution advising followers to join organizations like the Labour
Party, and subvert them. The SIS saw nothing wrong with the Trotskyites. So it seems unlikely the SIS is spying on the
Maori party even though some of its supporters are advocating the overthrow of the state. The Letter suspects the
ancient eves dropping equipment found on Turia's phone was for a previous occupant.
THE POLLS – WE PICK IT FIRST
Commentators are now realizing that 2% in the polls for the Maori party equates to no list seats but a sweep of the
Maori seats. The latest poll predicts Labour governing alone. If the Maori party wins more seats than its list vote
provides and Anderton wins his seat there could be an overhang and more than 120 MPs. The Letter thinks an overhang is
likely and Labour winning a majority alone is unlikely.
THE ISSUE
The Letter expects Clark, as she did last election, to ask centre right voters to support Labour and save them from
having to rely on the Greens or even worse the Maori party. If Brash can convince centre right voters that Labour can
only govern in coalition with the Greens and the Maori party, there could be a radical shift of votes to National.
IT'S THE ECONOMY
Labour's high support is easily explained by the strong economy. The Letter believes that National's best chance is
still the economy. We think Don Brash made a strategic mistake giving the economy away. To say the economy could do
better may be hard to sell in prosperous times – but it's true! Brash has the economic credibility to make the argument.
Labour is attacking Brash not because he is a weak link but because he's highly credible.
THE OTHERS
Unfortunately we believe that Winston Peters will easily hold Tauranga. NZ First, despite being a one-man band, seems
likely to meet the 5% threshold. While we believe that Peter Dunne is beatable in his seat, it seems unlikely. However,
the Destiny Church may stop United reaching its 5% threshold.
AND ACT
Two events last week strengthen ACT's chances. The election of Kenneth Wang and the decision of National to support the
Cullen Fund. Having the government save for us is a mad idea. The reason NZ was reduced to the status of a Polish
shipyard was National's practice of adopting Labour's policies, like compulsory unionism, after having originally
opposed them. A National government without ACT to keep it honest is no better than a Labour government.
SECRET REVEALED
The best-kept secret in NZ is the real number of people waiting for hospital treatment. Heather Roy through a campaign
of questions and OIA requests has found there are 62,000 awaiting operations and another 110,879 waiting to see a
specialist. 22,527 have been waiting more than six months. That's a total of 173,000 - making nonsense of Labour's
claims to be reducing waiting lists. As Heather points out, Annette King said while in opposition that 96,000 patients
waiting assessment was "criminal".
DIED WAITING
3,803 people died on the waiting lists under Labour since September 2000. 1187 this year, 1245 in 2003, 850 in 2002 and
521 in 2001. Labour has increased Health spending; yet health outcomes are worse. The Letter wonders how many of
Labour's casualties would be alive today had they adopted ACT's idea of using the private sector.
FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY
ACT The Roundtable has contributed to public debate by publishing their research into governance issues. The latest
publication "Restraining Leviathan" by Bryce Wilkinson examines the Fiscal Responsibility Act, concluding it has been
only a partial success. The law, which requires much better public accounts, has seen successive governments remain in
the black. The study points out that this has not stopped government expenditure in absolute and relative terms
increasing.
CIVIL UNION
Parliament will this week go into urgency to pass the Civil Union Bill. The law will pass easily. Originally there was a
companion measure, the "Relationships Bill" that said in effect that civil union was the same as marriage and made it
illegal to discriminate. The real meat is in the second bill. Amazingly MPs like Dunne voted against the Civil Union
Bill but for the Relationships Bill. Stephen Franks has persuaded the majority of the select committee that a serious
rethink is needed in this area of law. The Property (Relationship) Act 2001 that gives couples in de facto relationships
the right to claim half their partners property is causing chaos. The Relationships Bill is unlikely to be seen before
the election. The Civil Union Bill without its companion Relationship Bill means that a civil union has no legal
effects! This won't stop over the top nonsense being said by both sides.
GOING UP
The number of public servants is starting to rise. In June there were 35,645. This is up 6,000 from June 1999 when there
were 29,463. What are they doing? The civil service peaked in March 1986 at 89,105. 22,000 were in the railways.
THE POLL
Last week we asked, "Do you support a free trade agreement with China? 62% said yes. This week "Should parliament pass
the Civil Union Bill even if it has little legal effect?" We will pass the results on to MPs. http://www.act.org.nz/poll
ENDS