The Letter
Monday 23 August 2004
THE WEEK
As parliament is in recess and the nation is watching the Olympics, it has been a quiet week. What has happened to the
Kiwi male? It is the women who are winning gold and the All Blacks are the wooden spoon holders of the tri-nations.
Men’s sport seems to be following boys’ education downwards. Thought: Does Helen care? Hell no! Only that Labour is back
in front in the polls.
A LETTER TO THE EDITOR
Helen's press secretary Mike Monro, has written, "I have been thinking – is the 12 July hypothesis still current, or has
it gone the way of most other ACT assertions? He quotes The Letter -
“Labour's new tactics are not working. By agreeing to look at Brash's ideas, the government is letting the opposition
set the agenda. In politics whoever sets the agenda wins."
EDITOR RESPONDS
It is nice to know the ninth floor reads the letter. We note Monro appears to accept The Letter's assertion that
Labour’s tactic is now to claim to be looking at issues raised by Don Brash. It would appear to be working. Massive
taxpayer funded advertising also assists Labour, e.g. the TV ads for the new medical services that recent surveys show
have actually resulted in an increase in GP fees for average families. The government intends spending an unprecedented
$20 million on advertising the budget welfare giveaways. Labour's popularity is also assisted by 4% plus growth.
Don Brash has been sidetracked into the Wellington game of cabinet reshuffles. The Letter maintains that he who sets the
agenda does win in politics but in the last month it has been Labour setting the agenda.
PREDICTIONS
Labour still has serious electoral problems. On current polling Labour will lose all seven Maori seats. Even if all
commentators cannot do maths or understand MMP we are sure that Mike Monro does know that Labour's Maori MPs look doomed
to defeat. The Maori party's 3% support translates into around 60,000 votes. In the last election in all the Maori seats
put together there were only 65,000 Labour votes. As constituency races are first past the post and as most of the Maori
party support must have come from Labour, it looks like a clean sweep for the Maori party. Labour thinks that if the
foreshore legislation is rushed through this year the issue will go away. Perhaps in the general seats, but a law that
prevents Maori from having access to the courts is not going to be forgotten. The Letter does not know one Maori
speaking NZer who does not think the law is a betrayal. (Yes we know the Labour Maori members say they support it).
Every important Maori organisation has made a submission opposing the bill and the travesty that passes for a hearing
has increased Maori anger. Helen Clark has lost all the Maori seats before and the long-term damage the bill is doing to
Labour is hard to exaggerate. Thought: The Letter would not be surprised if the ever-flexible Clark dropped the bill. It
will be years before any of the foreshore court cases will be finally decided.
LABOUR’S PROBLEM
Labour's spin is that losing the Maori seats may be a blessing; Labour won't have to make compromises to the Maori
caucus, and the Maori party will still have to vote with Labour, so it's three more years with Helen. Wrong. There is no
way middle NZ will vote for Labour once voters realise that Labour can only govern in coalition with a party advocating
separate Maori sovereignty.
NATIONAL’S CHALLENGE
Getting the initiative back is not hard; just take some more of ACT’s policy. National is beating Labour in Auckland,
Brash is drawing big crowds in the provinces, but National is doing badly in Wellington. The party holds no seat in the
greater Wellington area. Dunne, who is in coalition with Labour, holds Sir John Marshal’s old seat. Answer: Take the
initiative and stand Don Brash in Ohariu/ Belmont. Now that’s a race we would love to watch.
AUCKLAND MAYORALTY
As soon as we had predicted an easy win for John Banks, Dick Hubbard announced his nomination. We are not sure how
seriously we should take him. The Letter has never met any one from his Business with Social Responsibility organisation
and we have assumed that his anti-Round Table statements are designed to give publicity to his cereals. Auckland’s
transport woes, where we need more roads, have been bedevilled by claims that rail is the answer. Trains are very
expensive and travel the wrong routes. Hubbard has promised both heavy and light rail and to put it underground. But he
is also promising the Eastern Highway and sustainability. There was nothing in his ad about the rates or how to pay for
it all. We think it’s a campaign to sell more cereals.
A CAMBRIDGE EDUCATION
We are expecting another slamming report about conflict of interest regarding overseas students at Cambridge High
School. So before she is dammed a few thoughts. Judged by external exams, scholarships, Cambridge High is the most
successful school in its decile in the country. It is drug free. Is not the point of NCEA that no child fails? Why was
it OK last year? Is the real crime to show what nonsense NCEA is?
THE DONNA CASE
Last week Donna Awatere Huata’s lawyers tried to have Richard Prebble and Ken Shirley struck out and replaced with
Rodney Hide and Muriel Newman. The Supreme Court declined but has added, with their consent, Rodney and Muriel as
parties. We are expecting the Court to grant leave and an early hearing this week.
THIS WEEK’S POLL
Last week 96% thought there should be no benefit if the father isn't named. This week, the Auckland mayoralty. Who would
you vote for?
PS - Maybe the real men are living in the Bay of Plenty.