INDEPENDENT NEWS

Rolls expected to increase for 2003 school year

Published: Tue 28 Jan 2003 05:10 PM
28 January 2003 Media Statement
Rolls expected to increase for 2003 school year
Schools open tomorrow (January 29) with an estimated 743,200 New Zealanders expected to go to school this year, about 8,620 more than last year, Education Minister Trevor Mallard said today.
Total primary enrolments this year will be around 486,760, up by 500 on last year. Secondary enrolments will be around 256,450, an increase of around 8,120 on last year.
“The estimated school rolls are based on 2002 rolls and population changes. Actual school rolls will not be known until the March and July data collections. Because of the growth in secondary school rolls, special measures have been implemented to reduce actual vacancies and fill any gaps on a temporary basis,” Trevor Mallard said.
“As part of the teachers’ employment agreement settlement last year, the Government promised it would provide 373 extra teachers, over and above what’s needed for roll growth, and this partly explains the higher level of vacancies that schools may experience. There is also a worldwide shortage of teachers, and in New Zealand a population bulge is moving through secondary schools which is expected to peak in 2006-07.
“The TeachNZ unit of the Ministry of Education will be providing advice and support to schools so they are aware of the wide range of help available, including the assistance of three recruitment agents.
“Schools, if they have vacancies, may decide to make internal adjustments or extend the hours of part-time teachers. They could also employ relief teachers while they finalise permanent appointments or until returning New Zealand teachers or overseas teachers can take up their positions. There is also a pool of secondary teachers in Auckland for any emergency situations that might arise.
“In terms of primary schools, it’s expected that around 9,840 new entrants will be enrolled at schools next week. They’ll be among an estimated 59,050 children who will start school for the first time throughout the year, around 440 more than last year.”
At a regional level, half of new entrants to school this year will be in the Auckland, Waikato and Bay of Plenty regions. Proportionately, the biggest increase in the number of students is in the Auckland region.
Details of teacher supply initiatives and roll statistics are attached.
ENDS
Teacher supply initiatives are as follows, costing around $37 million over three years. These include:
- scholarships
- teacher training allowances, worth up to $10,000 each, for student teachers specialising in subjects where shortages are being experienced
- recruitment incentives
- retraining for former secondary teachers
- returning teacher allowances
- national relocation grants for teachers to move to teaching jobs in areas of high demand
- conversion courses to enable existing primary teachers with degree qualifications to teach in secondary schools
- international relocation grants for New Zealand teachers living abroad and suitably qualified overseas-trained teachers.
- matching teacher graduates from outside Auckland with Auckland vacancies
- three recruitment agencies contracted to work with schools and also attract New Zealand teachers working in Britain back to New Zealand
Primary School Roll Estimates
Estimated Numbers of New Entrants by Region
Region 2002 2003
Beginning of School Year Entire School Year Beginning of School Year Entire School Year
Northland 400 2 390 400 2 400
Auckland 3 230 19 360 3 280 19 660
Waikato 990 5 920 990 5 960
Bay of Plenty 690 4 110 690 4 140
Gisborne 130 810 130 800
Hawkes Bay 400 2 390 400 2 390
Taranaki 260 1 540 260 1 540
Manawatu/Wanganui 580 3 470 580 3 490
Wellington 1 050 6 270 1 050 6 270
Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman 280 1 680 280 1 710
West Coast 80 460 80 450
Canterbury 1 090 6 560 1 110 6 640
Otago 380 2 270 380 2 310
Southland 230 1 380 230 1 390
All Areas 9 770 58 610 9 840 59 050
Secondary School Roll Estimates
Around 61,990 Year 9 students (including adult students) are expected to enrol at New Zealand secondary schools, about 2,660 more than last year.
Estimated Numbers of Year 9 Students by Region
Region 2002 2003
Northland 2 460 2 560
Auckland 18 680 19 720
Waikato 5 850 6 100
Bay of Plenty 4 060 4 230
Gisborne 820 850
Hawkes Bay 2 610 2 730
Taranaki 1 840 1 890
Manawatu/Wanganui 3 650 3 820
Wellington 6 290 6 610
Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman 1 990 2 070
West Coast 420 430
Canterbury 6 730 7 030
Otago 2 520 2 590
Southland 1 420 1 440
All Areas 59 330 61 990
Total actual (2002) and estimated (2003) number of students by region
Region 2002 2003
Primary (Year 1-8) Secondary
(Year 9-15) Primary (Year 1-8) Secondary (Year 9-15)
Northland 20 630 9 510 20 610 9 770
Auckland 155 880 77 900 158 290 81 330
Waikato 49 110 24 150 49 110 24 880
Bay of Plenty 34 210 16 140 34 570 16 660
Gisborne 6 870 3 180 6 780 3 280
Hawkes Bay 20 320 10 580 20 230 10 950
Taranaki 13 530 7 540 13 240 7 650
Manawatu/Wanganui 28 700 15 290 28 540 15 800
Wellington 51 920 26 600 51 630 27 610
Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman 14 980 8 240 14 880 8 470
West Coast 3 900 1 640 3 830 1 660
Canterbury 55 000 30 210 54 850 31 190
Otago 19 330 11 320 19 100 11 520
Southland 11 880 6 040 11 610 6 040
All Areas 486 250 248 330 486 760 256 450
School Roll Growth
The number of primary school students is expected to peak in 2003 and decline thereafter.
The growth in the number of secondary school students is accelerating with the number of secondary school students expected to peak in 2006.
*Actual Student Rolls
Actual and Projected School Rolls: 1996 - 2013
Year Primary
(Y1 - Y8) Secondary
(Y9-Y15)
1996* 460 500 235 600
1997* 471 300 236 100
1998* 478 800 239 900
1999* 483 300 242 800
2000* 484 200 241 700
2001* 483 600 242 700
2002* 486 300 248 300
2003 486 800 256 400
2004 483 300 264 500
2005 481 200 270 100
2006 478 300 272 800
2007 474 300 272 200
2008 469 700 270 700
2009 465 800 267 800
2010 461 700 265 200
2011 457 200 263 400
2012 452 500 261 700
2013 445 400 261 600
*Actual Student Roll
Enrolments are influenced significantly by birth trends. From 1982 to 1992, the number of live births increased from 49,700 to 60,500. Since 1992, the numbers have been drifting downwards again and therefore impacting on the number of new entrants. The high level of births experienced during the late 1980s and early 1990s has resulted in a student bulge with an expected peak in primary rolls in 2003 and secondary rolls in 2006.
Migration also influences roll levels. In the year ended November 2002, New Zealand experienced a net gain close to 12,000 migrants for those aged 0 to 17 compared to a net gain of around 3,100 migrants over the same period in the previous year. Gains from migration are expected to remain at similar levels for 2003 but decrease thereafter.
Ethnic Composition of school rolls - 2002
While European/Pakeha constitute the largest ethnic group in New Zealand schools, the next largest group, Maori, account for 21% of enrolments. There are also significant numbers of New Zealand students of Pacific (8%) and Asian (7%) ethnic origin.
During the period 1998-2002 the number of Maori, Pacific and Asian students increased while the number of European/Pakeha students has decreased. Growth in the number of Asian students has resulted from increased migration from Asia in recent years.
Change in the Number of Students by Ethnicity, 1998 to 2002
European /Pakeha Maori Pacific Asian All New Zealand Students
No. -14062 8153 7174 7374 13140
% -3.0% 5.6% 13.5% 17.6% 1.8%
Further information on school rolls can be found in the annual publication Education Statistics of New Zealand (Ministry of Education).
Estimated Territorial Local Authority Student Rolls
Territorial Local Authority 2002 2003
Year 1. Beginning of School Year Year 1. Entire School Year Year 9 Students Primary (Years 1-8) Secondary (Years 9-15) Year 1. Beginning of School Year Year 1. Entire School Year Year 9 Students Primary (Years 1-8) Secondary (Years 9-15)
Far North 160 970 1 010 8 510 3 820 160 960 1 040 8 310 3 880
Whangarei 190 1 140 1 160 9 670 4 630 190 1 140 1 220 9 800 4 800
Kaipara 50 290 290 2 450 1 060 50 290 300 2 530 1 090
Rodney 200 1 180 800 9 660 3 130 200 1 210 850 9 940 3 290
North Shore City 450 2 690 3 180 22 400 14 040 460 2 750 3 330 23 020 14 510
Waitakere City 480 2 860 2 220 22 920 8 600 480 2 880 2 370 21 920 9 060
Auckland City 900 5 400 6 420 43 790 28 210 910 5 460 6 740 42 390 29 310
Manukau City 960 5 770 4 550 44 810 18 120 970 5 830 4 800 42 470 18 930
Papakura 130 750 850 6 530 3 260 130 760 890 6 190 3 390
Franklin 160 940 760 7 700 2 930 160 960 810 7 530 3 080
Thames -Coromandel 50 320 280 2 870 1 170 50 320 300 3 020 1 230
Hauraki 40 270 380 2 430 1 490 40 270 380 2 410 1 490
Waikato 130 760 350 5 780 1 310 130 760 370 6 190 1 350
Matamata - Piako 90 520 480 4 220 1 890 80 510 490 4 070 1 890
Hamilton City 300 1 800 2 340 15 120 10 210 310 1 840 2 440 14 940 10 490
Waipa 110 670 800 5 700 3 270 110 680 830 5 910 3 360
Otorohanga 20 140 110 1 150 380 20 140 110 1 280 400
South Waikato 80 460 380 3 630 1 550 70 450 400 3 450 1 620
Waitomo 30 180 150 1 410 560 30 180 160 1 420 570
Taupo 80 500 420 4 220 1 700 80 500 440 4 080 1 760
Western BOP 100 570 460 4 910 1 730 100 580 470 5 110 1 770
Tauranga 250 1 490 1 560 12 150 6 350 250 1 500 1 640 12 140 6 610
Rotorua 190 1 160 1 220 9 560 4 800 190 1 160 1 260 9 440 4 910
Whakatane 110 630 620 5 370 2 530 110 630 650 5 410 2 600
Kawerau 30 150 120 1 270 380 30 150 130 1 160 390
Opotiki 30 180 130 1 550 570 30 180 130 1 510 590
Gisborne 130 810 820 6 870 3 180 130 800 850 6 940 3 270
Wairoa 30 160 130 1 460 520 30 160 130 1 410 530
Hastings 200 1 220 1 230 10 040 4 920 200 1 210 1 280 10 100 5 080
Napier 140 820 1 030 7 030 4 230 140 810 1 090 7 030 4 410
Central H. Bay 30 200 220 1 780 900 30 200 230 1 990 920
New Plymouth 160 970 1 330 8 590 5 460 160 970 1 360 9 000 5 530
Stratford 20 120 190 1 200 750 20 120 200 1 420 770
South Taranaki 70 440 320 3 760 1 330 70 450 320 3 890 1 340
Ruapehu 50 270 190 2 110 800 40 270 200 1 940 820
Wanganui 110 640 790 5 800 3 460 110 640 810 5 900 3 520
Rangitikei 40 240 230 2 150 970 40 240 230 2 210 980
Manawatu 80 460 390 3 720 1 420 80 470 410 4 130 1 470
Palmerston North City 180 1 060 1 310 8 570 5 720 180 1 070 1 390 8 740 5 990
Tararua 50 320 330 2 570 1 280 50 320 340 2 340 1 290
Horowhenua 80 480 410 3 760 1 640 80 480 440 3 850 1 720
Kapiti Coast 100 570 640 5 190 2 470 100 570 690 5 560 2 610
Porirua City 160 940 540 7 010 2 190 150 920 560 6 510 2 260
Upper Hutt City 90 520 690 4 840 2 830 90 520 710 4 810 2 890
Hutt City 270 1 610 1 480 13 060 6 030 270 1 610 1 570 13 080 6 330
Wellington City 340 2 070 2 250 16 810 10 280 340 2 070 2 350 16 600 10 620
Masterton 60 350 570 3 250 2 250 60 350 580 3 540 2 260
Carterton 20 90 10 760 30 20 90 10 820 30
South Wairarapa 20 120 110 1 010 520 20 120 120 990 550
Tasman 100 570 640 5 220 2 530 100 580 660 5 500 2 580
Nelson City 90 570 800 5 120 3 490 100 580 840 5 450 3 620
Marlborough 90 550 550 4 630 2 230 90 550 570 4 710 2 290
Kaikoura 10 50 40 400 160 10 50 40 490 170
Buller 20 130 130 1 200 510 20 130 130 1 170 520
Greytown 40 220 200 1 750 820 40 210 210 1 590 830
Westland 20 110 90 950 300 20 110 90 960 320
Hurunui 30 150 60 1 220 220 30 150 60 1 170 220
Waimakariri 90 540 540 4 690 2 090 90 550 580 4 890 2 210
Christchurch City 700 4 220 4 510 35 020 21 220 710 4 290 4 710 36 110 21 910
Banks Peninsula 10 70 10 650 30 10 70 10 620 30
Selwyn 70 420 430 3 310 1 730 70 420 450 3 480 1 790
Ashburton 60 350 320 3 100 1 310 60 350 330 3 140 1 320
Timaru 90 570 720 5 120 3 020 90 570 750 5 390 3 110
McKenzie 10 50 50 380 200 10 50 50 340 200
Waimate 20 110 60 870 220 20 110 60 910 240
Chatham Is. County 10 90 10 100
Waitaki 40 260 380 2 270 1 600 40 260 370 2 180 1 560
Central Otago 30 170 190 1 680 860 30 170 200 1 950 890
Queenstown-Lakes 40 220 160 1 810 730 40 230 170 1 800 780
Dunedin City 230 1 400 1 560 11 590 7 240 240 1 420 1 600 11 900 7 340
Clutha 40 250 230 2 200 900 40 250 250 2 130 950
Southland 70 420 320 3 720 1 350 70 430 330 3 830 1 360
Gore 30 160 200 1 500 820 30 160 200 1 650 820
Invercargill City 130 800 900 6 660 3 870 130 800 900 6 890 3 840
Total 9 770 58 610 59 330 486 250 248 330 9 840 59 050 61 990 486 760 256 450
Note1: Individual TLA's may not add to total due to rounding
Note2: Numbers provided in text and tables are subject to rounding.
ENDS

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