Friday, 20 December 2002 Media Statement
New assessment of electricity supply security
Minister of Energy Pete Hodgson today released a new assessment of the dry year risk for New Zealand's electricity
The report by consultants Energy Link Ltd indicates that the chance of a supply shortage is in the region of 1-in-35 in
each of the next four years. It notes that this is considerably less than the historical standard applied by the former
ECNZ, which operated its hydro reservoirs to a 1-in-20 dry year security standard.
The report was commissioned by the Ministry of Economic Development to increase the depth of information publicly
available on New Zealand's electricity system.
The Energy Link modelling is considerably more detailed than modelling by the University of Canterbury-based Centre for
Advanced Engineering and Transpower, the national grid operator. It takes into account possible hydro inflow variability
within years, storage capacity in the different reservoirs, and the transmission constraints within the grid.
The Energy Link report is available on the Ministry of Economic Development website: