The tide continues to turn against the National Party. Their Bright Future announcement has failed to translate into
votes while the Winebox victory of Winston Peters immediately puts New Zealand First right back in the picture.
The latest TV3 CM Research Poll shows the National Party on 32% down 5; Labour on 40% up two, the Alliance on 7% down
one, New Zealand First on 7% up 2.3, ACT steady on 6% and the Greens up one to 2.6%.
The most significant movement is in the rise of NZ First and the sharp decline of National. With these figures Winston
Peters would get 10 MPs into parliament, giving a Labour / Alliance coalition a majority of just one seat.
The rise of the Greens could give a valuable extra three seats to a Labour-led coalition if Jeanette Fitzsimons wins the
Coromandel seat. The odds of this happening could be basically guaranteed if the left, or even just Labour, were
prepared to do a deal in the seat.
Helen Clark is the most preferred Prime Minister on 20% up one; Jenny Shipley is on 14% down four and Winston Peters is
on 6% up one.
Things continue to get worse for the National leader. When asked if Jenny Shipley was a capable leader 44% said she was,
down 10; 33% thought she showed sound judgement, down four; 36% said she was good in a crisis, down two and 67% thought
she talked down to people, up four.
Scoop will preview the significant Coromandel seat on Tuesday.